Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 191515 AAA
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
815 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO TODAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING SLIGHTLY SLOW THE TIMING
OF THE ONSET OF THE RAIN TODAY. VIS SAT SHOWS RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK
TO BE LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. MKK

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST CA. HOWEVER, AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, EXPECT MVFR
AND SOME LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AND -RA TO AFFECT THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF CAPE MENDO THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 332 AM PDT...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO AREAS OF NORTHERN
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES TODAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO JUST
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND RAPID
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY
OUT OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING A NICE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 5-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHEST IN INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY.

A STORMIER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT
TROUGHS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY BRINGING A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -25C AND -30C PRIMARILY FROM CAPE
MENDOCINO NORTH. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BECOME UNSTABLE AND FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE STRONGER SHOWERS TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR
3500 FEET AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO FALL BEFORE
SNOW LEVELS DESCEND SIGNIFICANTLY...SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

A SHORT DRY PERIOD WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN TROUGHS TUESDAY NIGHT
POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WETTER SYSTEM
MAY IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH DETAILS ARE
SKETCHY AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.

AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST CA. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS MORNING.
WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE UNDER MARINE STRATUS. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS AND -RA TO
AREAS N OF CAPE MENDO TODAY.

MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. A WESTERLY
SWELL GENERATED FROM A STRONG LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD
INTO THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, PEAK ON SUNDAY, THEN SLOW SUBSIDE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE PUT UP A SCA FOR HAZ SEAS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

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