Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
FXUS66 KEKA 302257
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
357 PM PDT SAT JUL 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A slight moderating trend can be expected through
early next week as an upper trough moves through the Pacific
Northwest. A shallow marine layer will persist along the coast,
with nocturnal fog and stratus and mild temperatures.
.DISCUSSION...Hot, dry weather continues to dominate the region
today as high pressure aloft maintains its grip on California.
While it may be hard to fathom considering that many interior
valleys have easily eclipsed 100 degrees this afternoon, high
temperatures are actually running approximately 2 to 7 degrees
lower than yesterday at this time, which was generally expected.
This is actually the beginning of a modest "cooling" trend, as
passing shortwave troughs to our north will help to weaken the
high pressure aloft and moderate temperatures a bit. We want to
emphasize "a bit", though, as temperatures will continue to be
hot across the interior by most measures. Instead of widespread
afternoon temperatures ranging from 100 to 110, this will likely
shift to between 90 and 100 tomorrow, where temperatures will
remain mostly unchanged through the middle of the week.
Along the coast, nocturnal stratus and fog is expected to
continue through the weekend and early next week, although
coverage may not be quite as extensive along the Del Norte coast
as it has been in recent days. While the depth of the marine layer
may deepen slightly Monday and Tuesday due to a passing trough,
carrying stratus slightly farther into coastal river valleys, it
will likely remain below 2000 feet and this change will hardly be
noticeable to most.
As for convection this evening, another field of cumulus clouds
has developed in portions of the Trinity Alps and south-central
Siskiyou County, essentially in the same location as yesterday.
While it won`t be impossible to see a brief shower emerge from
this activity, any showers that do manage to develop will be weak,
very isolated, and likely to remain just north of the Trinity
County border. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
minimal for most of the next week, although there are some hints
that isolated showers will be possible towards the end of the
week and next weekend. /BRC
.AVIATION...A similar situation unfolded today as observed
yesterday with stratus clearing away from the coast north of Cape
Mendocino and lower ceilings sticking close to the Mendocino
coastline. Tonight should be similar to last night with clouds
returning to Humboldt Bay tonight and slipping up towards KCEC
early Sunday morning. Expect IFR conditions for the coastal region
and mostly vfr for the interior tonight. A persistence forecast
will likely ensue into Sunday. /KML
.MARINE...Strong high pressure offshore will maintain robust
north winds through the remainder of the weekend. The strongest
winds will be farther offshore north of Cape Mendocino and the
pressure gradient will be weaker to the south. Expect sustained 20
to 30 kt winds to the north and 15 to 25 kt winds to the south.
Winds nearshore will overall be lighter with a few coastal eddies
bringing southerly winds along the immediate coast. Be aware that
winds will be significantly stronger near Point Saint George
because of the orientation of the pressure gradient. Buoy 27
offshore from Crescent City showed much stronger winds than the
buoys offshore from Humboldt Bay this afternoon with gusts
approaching 40 kt. The gradient will shift westward on Monday and
allow winds to decrease briefly before strong winds develop again
The sea state, on the other hand, will remain quite large and
steep through the weekend. Steep waves are propagating into the
northern inner waters and the southern outer waters thus I added a
Hazardous Seas warning for both zones. Large seas will subside
once the gale diminishes but waves will remain pretty steep
through next week. Unfortunately it will be hard to pin point
subtle improvements in the marine conditions through the coming
week but I can more confidently say the marine environment will be
crummy possibly through next weekend. /KML
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-475.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475.
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