Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 052311
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
311 PM PST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOL WITH FROST DEVELOPING IN SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR AREAS. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. WITH CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS. WE HOISTED ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR MENDOCINO
COUNTY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S AGAIN BY DAWN FRIDAY. UNSURE IF ADDITIONAL FROST
ADVISORIES ARE GOING TO BE NECESSARY OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
NO DOUBT BE LOCALIZED COLD SPOTS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FROST
EACH AND EVERY NIGHT UNTIL CLOUDS AND/OR DEW-POINTS INCREASE.

COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WILL NOT EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
THIS WEEKEND AS LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HUMIDITIES INCREASE EACH DAY. THE WEAK NORTH FLOW AND A STRONGER
MARINE INVERSION WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVER THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST ON TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES 135W.
BOTH MODELS BRING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK...BUT DIFFERED ON THE SPEED. THE GFS WAS MUCH
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER. LEANED TOWARD THE
SLOWER ECMWF SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE DOMINATING RIDGE.
IN EITHER CASE...IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE ARE GOING TO SEE SOME PRECIP
WED AND THU NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION....A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW VFR TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LOCAL IFR IS POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT IN
SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS.

&&

.MARINE...THE AFTERNOON BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS AROUND
4-5 FT. THE 1925Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS THAT RANGED FROM CALM TO
SOUTH UP TO 10 KT. THIS MATCHED OUR FORECAST. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST
COAST HAS IS GENERATING A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS
ALLOWING LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS OUR WATERS. THE MODELS ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZE AND WAVE HEIGHTS
UNDER 8 FT.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ076.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

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