Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 221152
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
352 AM PST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RAIN SHOWERS ARE DIMINISHING AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. VALLEY FOG WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY PRODUCING
INCREASING CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SNOW ABOVE 5K FT AS SNOW LEVELS DECREASE, HOWEVER
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY, DECREASING CLOUDINESS.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST AREAS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY.

.COASTAL FLOODING...PROLONGED SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TIDES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEARLY 1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK. TIDES WILL
APPROACH 9 FEET MONDAY. LOW LYING AREAS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY,
INCLUDING THE ARCATA BOTTOMS AND KING SALMON WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR SALT
WATER FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
RANGE FROM MVFR ALL THE WAY TO LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THOUGH, PARTS OF THE
REDWOOD COAST AND SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS MAY TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO IMPROVE. TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN THE TAFS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT BEST.


&&

.MARINE...THE MORNING BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A GENTLE BREEZE WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11-13 FT. THE 0445Z ASCAT PASS CLIPPED OUR
OUTER WATERS. IT SHOWED WINDS OF 10-15 KT, WHICH WAS GENERALLY
WITHIN 5 KT OF OUR FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO FRESH BREEZE THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY. EXPECT
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT. LEFT THE SC.Y`S UP THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY
DUE TO THE WESTERLY SWELL. WEDNESDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MODELS SHOW A DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH. AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE/ACCOMPANYING
FRONT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT AS THIS PASSES WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND QUICKLY
INCREASE. THE CONS MODEL SHOWS GUSTS APPROACHING STRONG GALE,
MUCH HIGHER THAN A MERE 24 HOURS AGO. BUT THE GFS SHOWS MUCH
STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, WITH SOME AREAS A WHOPPING 10-20 KT
HIGHER. WHILE THIS SEEMS OVERDONE, DID BUMP UP THE CONS MODEL
WINDS AS THIS IS HISTORICALLY THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE WE HAVE
SOME OF THE FIERCEST WINDS. PLUS, THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
HIGHER. IT`S STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE GL.A`S WITH THIS PACKAGE,
BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE STRONG GALES OR POSSIBLY STORM
FORCE GUSTS IF THE MODELS KEEP TRENDING HIGHER. MUST NOTE THAT
THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WON`T BE AS HIGH
ACROSS THE INNER WATERS, BUT STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS COULD
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM PST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&

$$

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