Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 051114
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
414 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL PLAGUE THE COAST...BUT WILL PULL BACK TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE CONTINUING TO HANG ALONG THE
COAST EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS, THE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO PULL BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
CLEARING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK FOR THE COAST.

AWAY FROM THE COAST, WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING INSTABLILITY OVER THE NW CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK. AS SUCH HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK, I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE COVERAGE OR LOCATION
THAT MODELS ARE PAINTING. TRIED TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FAIRLY BROAD, BUT SINCE THUNDERSTORM CLIMOTOLOGY FAVORS EASTERN
TRINITY COUNTY, THIS ENDED UP BEING THE AREA OF FOCUS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS LOW
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK
TOO, DROPPING TO NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS
TODAY, BUT A DEEPER INSPECTION INTO THE AREA IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL CAP TO TRAP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
BELOW THE LAYERS OF INSTABILITY. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE CU OVER THE
HILLS, I AM A BIT SKEPTICAL ON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST OVER THE LAST WEEK TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THEM. MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A NICE
STREAM OF MOISTURE HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE SSW, SO WE WILL HAVE
TO SEE WHAT THIS LOOKS LIKE AS IT TRANSITS TOWARD NW CAL. SO FOR
THE FORECAST HAVE PULLED THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO JUST THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, WHILE MAINTAINING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE ALPS. IF MID
LAYER MOISTURE DOES STREAM IN COINCIDENT WITH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A
BROADER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS, TIME AND AREA, FOR THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS. BFG

&&

.AVIATION...10Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS/FOG ALONG MOST OF
THE COAST AND HIGHER CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR. ALONG THE
COAST...STRATUS/FOG WILL BRING IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS/FOG BURNS
OFF. INLAND...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE TRINITY ALPS.
TEMPO REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...THE BUOYS THIS MORNING ARE REPORTING A LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZE AND MIXED SEAS RANGING FROM 4-5 FT. THE MORNING ASCAT PASS
MISSED OUR WATERS, WHICH ISN`T AN ISSUE GIVEN HOW LIGHT THE WINDS
ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW (WHICH WAS LOCATED NEAR 33N 133W AT 9Z) VERY
SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST AND THEN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
BY THE END OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WIND AND LOW
SEAS FOR OUR WATERS THIS WEEK.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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