Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 301056
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
256 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WETTER PATTERN
MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING IR SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST
OFF THE COAST...WHILE POCKETS OF COASTAL STRATUS REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ALONG THE NORTH COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW HAS ERODED SOME OF THE
POCKETS BUT IT MAY TAKE SOME SUNSHINE LATER THIS MORNING TO
COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY CLEAR AND THE AIR MASS WILL WARM UP TOWARD THIS
WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE NORTH COAST THAT MAY BRING PRECIP TO NW CA...ALTHOUGH THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE HAS THUS FAR PROVEN TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME. HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF RAIN SUN
NIGHT INTO MON. THAT MEANS CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. EVEN GOING INTO TUE AND WED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING
MOISTURE OVER THE RIDGE WITH SPOTTY PRECIP FROM TIME TO TIME. ONCE
AGAIN THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY OVERDONE AND WILL SCALE DOWN THE
PRECIP CHANCES TO 10% OR LESS. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...THU AND FRI...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WET FRONTAL SYSTEM
PLOWING INTO THE RIDGE AND BRINGING BOUTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN TO NW CA. THE GFS WAS SLOWER. THE ECWMF FASTER. ALTHOUGH BOTH
MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR OVERDOING RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THESE
WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION PLUMES; THE SO-CALLED ATMOSPHERIC
RIVERS...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THUS HAVE PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVELY AND
WENT WITH THE STANDARD CLIMO POPS (30-40%).

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KCEC THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AS PATCHY FOG LOWERS VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI TODAY. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AT KCEC
AND KACV. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM AT KUKI THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTERACTING WITH A
THERMAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA HAS INCREASED THE
WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SEAS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER SEAS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG PERIOD
WESTERLY SWELL TRAVERSES THE WATERS.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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