Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 281140
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WEATHER PATTERN. THE FORECAST AREA
SITS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RIPPLES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE BEST
MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AREA INTO AL AND
WESTERN GA SO HAVE KEPT THE POPS HIGHEST FOR NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS
TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE
STATE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS SHOULD BE A BIT
DRIER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. MAJOR THREATS FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD AGAIN BE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

41

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR MINIMUM FORCING.

WITH SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL FAVORING THE FAR NORTH AND WEST
AND THE FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID U.S. BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE TREND
OF INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MAXIMIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY
FROM THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL LOOKING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING IT TO THE
FLORIDA COAST LATE THURSDAY. THE EUROPEAN DOES NOT. THIS WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED WITH FUTURE RUNS OF THE MODELS.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH GA WERE LINGERING WITH THE INFLUENCE OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. MOST CEILINGS ARE VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT
SOME AREAS OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COULD START EARLIER. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT SOUTHEAST TODAY BUT
GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  64 /  40  30  30  10
ATLANTA         83  67  83  66 /  70  40  40  10
BLAIRSVILLE     78  62  79  61 /  70  40  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  64  84  64 /  70  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        85  67  87  66 /  60  20  30  10
GAINESVILLE     82  66  82  65 /  60  40  40  20
MACON           87  63  87  64 /  40  20  20   5
ROME            83  65  84  64 /  70  40  50  20
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  84  63 /  60  30  40  10
VIDALIA         88  65  87  68 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...41


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