Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 260147
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
947 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
Made some adjustments to the POPs through the remainder of the
evening for the persistent showers/thunderstorms lifting NNW across
North Georgia at this time. Tweaked hourly temperatures and dew
points but made no other significant changes to the previous forecast
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
No major changes in the short term forecast. We have been in this
pattern for at least 2 maybe 3 weeks now and there appears to be
no changes in the near future. The East-west oriented upper ridge
continues to control the weather pattern across the southern
CONUS. A wave developing over the central gulf is forecast to
intensify overnight and move toward the MS/LA coast Tuesday
morning. As it pushes onshore it should help to increase moisture
a bit across Southwestern/West Central GA. This will help to
increase the convective coverage across those areas for Tuesday
afternoon and evening but still only expecting General storms to
develop. All in all afternoon/evening diurnal convection will
continue with maximum coverage around 30-40 percent Tuesday.
SBCAPE values are expected to get a bit stronger Tuesday with
reading in the 1500-2500 J/kg range so may see a bit more
potential for wet microbursts and lightning. Temps should continue
slightly above normal with Heat Index values remaining below 105
so no advisory expected.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Models remain in good agreement for the week. There are some
differences toward the weekend per location of the deep moisture.
Through at least the end of the work week a ridge of high pressure
will be the dominant feature with diurnally driven convection each
afternoon and evening. By the weekend a trough sets up over the
Mississippi Valley...but the H5 ridge will keep it from pushing too
far east. This is where differences occur. The GFS brings the gulf
moisture into much of the CWA while the ECMWF and Canadian models
keep the moisture to the west of the CWA. Will maintain chance pops
through Friday and raise pops to high chance...mainly across north
Georgia...by the weekend and early next week.
VFR conditions are expected to predominate through the forecast
period outside of convection. Will see some local to scattered MVFR
or lower visibilities developing between 06Z and 14Z...however
chances for any impacts at the TAF sites too low to include in the
forecast right now. Isolated convection currently will diminish over
the next couple of hours. Isolated to scattered convection is
expected to redevelop after 16Z tomorrow. Winds are expected to
remain predominately west to southwest...but will be somewhat
variable in direction through the period. Wind speeds will remain
generally light...6kt or less except in and near convection...
through the period.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements...except medium at best concerning
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 73 95 74 95 / 40 20 20 30
Atlanta 74 93 74 93 / 40 30 20 30
Blairsville 67 88 69 88 / 50 40 30 50
Cartersville 72 94 73 94 / 50 30 30 30
Columbus 74 94 75 94 / 20 30 20 30
Gainesville 74 93 74 93 / 50 30 30 30
Macon 74 96 74 96 / 20 20 20 30
Rome 72 94 72 94 / 40 40 30 40
Peachtree City 71 93 71 93 / 40 30 20 30
Vidalia 74 95 75 97 / 20 20 10 20