Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 222337
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
737 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017



.UPDATE...
Convection continues to persist into the evening hours, but latest
radar trends and Hi-Res models agree on a diminishing trend and
end to the activity over the next couple hours. Have made some
minor updates to hourly grids, with the overall forecast through
the short term period on track. Models continue to show more
limited PoP chances for tomorrow with warm temperatures
prevailing.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Widely scattered thunderstorms have quickly developed across east-
central Georgia, especially between Augusta and Macon, where nickel-
sized hail was reported earlier this aftn around Augusta. Overall
severe threat is low but "downdraft" CAPE in the 800-1100 J/KG range
certainly high enough to support very localized microbursts in
strongest cells. Downed trees and powerlines occurred in southern
Pulaski county yesterday with similar environment.

Focus for convection, aside from high CAPE environment, is a weak
upper level circulation /depicted by latest WV satl imagery/ getting
better organized across south Georgia. This feature will continue to
drag moisture and weak upr lvl "impulses" from NE to SW across the
area through tomorrow (Saturday). Hit or miss mainly afternoon &
evening storms can be expected into the weekend but most areas will
remain dry.

Little change in temperatures expected in the short term, with above
normal conditions continuing into the weekend.

DJN.83

LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Slight differences in late week frontal timing and expanse of
attendant moisture field. Not impressive at the moment and meager
instability but if anything slightly adjusted back a few pops.
Forecast largely on track with little change otherwise. Previous
discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Extended forecast period continues to appear mainly dry and warm as
the region remains under a large but not particularly strong upper-
level ridge through the majority of the period. Despite a persistent
weakness in the upper ridge over the region, a generally stable
airmass should keep any diurnal convective development in check.
Chances for precipitation start creeping back into the forecast by
the end of next week as the upper ridge breaks down and a fairly
sharp upper trough and associated surface low/cold front approach the
forecast area.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Patchy MVFR fog is
possible for 09-13Z, but have not included at any TAF sites for
the morning. Convection expected to be more limited Saturday and
do not have any precip mentioned at any site. ENE-ESE winds will
be light/calm overnight, then increase to 5-10kt through the day.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  86  65  85 /  20  10   5  10
Atlanta         70  85  68  85 /  20  10   5  10
Blairsville     56  82  59  81 /  20  20   5  10
Cartersville    67  86  64  85 /  20  10  10  10
Columbus        70  88  68  88 /  30  20  10  10
Gainesville     68  84  66  83 /  20  10   5  10
Macon           65  87  65  87 /  30  10   5  10
Rome            66  87  64  87 /  20  20  10  10
Peachtree City  66  85  65  85 /  20  10  10  10
Vidalia         70  87  68  87 /  30  20   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31


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