Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 270907
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
407 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH GA THIS MORNING ARE EITHER FREEZING OR
WILL BE THERE SHORTLY. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ARE PRODUCING AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
NORTH GA THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SUGGESTING A FEW PATCHES
OF SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE OCCASIONALLY OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR
NORTH GA THIS MORNING... AND THIS TREND MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST GA AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TODAY.

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA
THIS MORNING AS ANY LINGERING MOISTURE FREEZES. ALTHOUGH NOTHING
WIDESPREAD IS EXPECT... THIS POTENTIAL EXIST... AND THEREFORE WILL
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS POSTED THROUGH 9 AM FOR THIS
BLACK ICE POTENTIAL. A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH
GA MAY NOT WARM ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL LATE MORNING... SO EVEN IF THE
ADVISORY IS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 AM... IT DOES NOT MEAN THIS
THREAT HAS COMPLETELY ENDED. ALL INTEREST IN NORTH GA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE... WHERE CLOUDS OCCUR THIS MORNING... EXPECT A GRADUALLY
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON... EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST GA
WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER... EVEN OVERNIGHT AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE THAT AREA. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY AS A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WITH ALL AREAS SEEING LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. A SLIGHT
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY UNDER AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING WINDS.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME IN BETTER PHASE WITH THE MAIN
INFLUENCING FEATURES OF THE LONG TERM. THESE CONSIST OF TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT IS A BIT
MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS WELL AS IT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE
UPPER FLOW NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS DOWN TO LOW END CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BASED ON THE MODEL THERMAL
PROFILES BEFORE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE OF MORE CONCERN WITH FUTURE
UPDATES AS A STRONG 1030+MB PARENT SFC HIGH LOOKS TO SET UP A
CLASSICAL CAD WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN WHILE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
OVERRUNNING THE WEDGE...THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING OF
PRECIP ONSET. THE GFS ADVECTS MOISTURE FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BRINGING IN BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WHICH WOULD MAKE FOR A MORE INTERESTING SITUATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SFC WETBULB TEMPS BY 12Z SUNDAY WOULD SUPPORT POSSIBILITY OF
WINTRY MIX MAINLY INTO PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST. THE FORECAST
OF P-TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE WEDGE AND TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET FOR THE DEGREE OF DIABATIC
ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW IN PARTS OF THE
FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SYSTEM EXITS...THOUGH UPDATES MAY NEED TO SHIFT FOCUS
TO NORTHEAST GA AND MIXED P-TYPE POTENTIAL IF MODELS SHOW SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.

BAKER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FUELS HAVE BEEN TOO WET RECENTLY...THEREFORE EVEN THOUGH WINDS
MAY REACH CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FIRE
DANGER CONCERN. HOWEVER IF FUELS DRY ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY...THEN
A HIGH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA GIVEN THE FORECAST AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 20-25
PERCENT. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES WITH THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
MOS AND BUFR SOUNDING GUIDANCES ARE MIXED ON POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SETTLING INTO ATLANTA AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z THIS MORNING.
WILL SEE AT LEAST BKN035-050 LEVEL CIGS BY 10Z... BUT WILL LEAN
TOWARD MVFR BKN025 LEVEL CIGS BY 10Z THIS MORNING FOR NOW. THESE
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MID LEVEL VFR CIGS BY 16Z AND THEN PERSIST
AT THAT LEVEL THRU MID AFTERNOON... MAYBE SCATTERING AROUND 19-21Z
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD... WITH SPEEDS AROUND 3-6KTS THIS
MORNING INCREASING TO AROUND 12-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND
22-25KTS BY 16-18Z TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          49  27  52  30 /  10   5   0   0
ATLANTA         49  30  51  34 /  10   5   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     41  24  50  29 /  20   5   0   5
CARTERSVILLE    48  27  51  31 /  10   5   0   5
COLUMBUS        54  32  56  34 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     46  28  50  33 /  10   5   0   0
MACON           54  29  55  31 /  10   0   0   0
ROME            49  27  51  31 /  10   0   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  51  27  52  31 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         54  32  54  32 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...POLK...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...
WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...39


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.