Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 161746 AAC
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
146 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...

HAVE MADE SEVERAL MAINLY MINOR CHANGES TO GRIDS THIS MORNING...
MOSTLY WITH SKY COVER AND POPS/WX. DECREASED POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND CHANGED WX WORDING TO JUST SHOWERS UNTIL NOONISH. THE
FRONT IS STILL TAKING ITS TIME WORKING INTO GEORGIA...BASED ON THE
DEWPOINT FIELD IT IS STILL UP IN TENNESSEE. CAPES ARE INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA BUT STILL WORKING OUT SOME OF THE CIN FROM ALL THE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. STARTING TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SO EXPECT THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL NOT BE TOO FAR
BEHIND...THOUGH HIRES GUIDANCE KEEPS IT GENERALLY ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. UPDATED PRODUCTS COMING OUT SHORTLY.

TDP

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS KY AND
PROGGD BY SHORT TERM MODELS TO PUSH INTO NORTH GA BY 6 AM... THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM THIS MORNING.
MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONT PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT MEANDERS OVERNIGHT BEFORE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE FINALLY PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT REGIONAL RADARS SHOW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING... PRIMARILY
SPARKED BY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT THEN DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH GA ONCE THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTH. EXPECT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROVIDES A
FOCUS AND CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE DURING MAX
DAYTIME HEATING. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS...
WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH ADDED
FRONTAL FORCING AND SHEAR. SUSPECT THIS VERY SLIGHT THREAT WOULD BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON LINE WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL GREATLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING... BUT AN ACTIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT HOLDING ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NORTH AND ALL OF CENTRAL GA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH... WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NW BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN WITH AMPLE CLOUDS... RAIN CHANCES AND
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL TIMING TODAY AND POSITION OVERNIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY. LEANING TOWARD A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

39

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OUT WITH THE SECOND FRONT SOUTH OF
THE CWA AND A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO NORTH AN CENTRAL GEORGIA.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WHICH
WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...BUT THEY ALSO AGREE THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A BIT OF
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
THROUGH DAY 7. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LESS MOISTURE THAN THE PAST
FEW RUNS O HAVE DECIDE TO PULL ALL PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THU
THROUGH SAT. A THIRD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH GA LATE SUNDAY SO WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP SUN/MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
INDICATE COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE FOR THE STATE...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE COOLER DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN. LOOKING T HIGH TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
EVERYONE HAS IMPROVED TO VFR THIS MORNING...BUT STILL WITH SCT
MVFR CLOUDS HANGING AROUND. CONTINUED VCSH TREND FOR NORTHERN TAFS
AND ADJUSTED TIMING OF TEMPO A TAD LATER FOR MCN/CSG AS NOT YET
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF TSRA YET. EXPECT VFR CIGS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD /EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN TSRA FOR MCN AND CSG/...BUT EXPECT
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT MOST SITES. FEW-SCT LOW VFR
CU EXPECTED 3-5KFT FOR WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE NO ISSUES. WINDS
GENERALLY NW THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AHN MAY SEE SOME VRB.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

TDP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  65  84  61 /  30  20   5   5
ATLANTA         84  68  83  63 /  30  20   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     79  61  76  53 /  30  20   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    85  63  82  58 /  20  20   5   5
COLUMBUS        88  69  88  65 /  40  20   5   0
GAINESVILLE     83  65  81  61 /  30  20   5   5
MACON           86  66  89  63 /  40  30   5   5
ROME            87  63  82  58 /  20  10   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  85  64  84  59 /  30  20   5   0
VIDALIA         87  69  89  66 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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