Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 281905
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017



.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Convective complex associated with the weak short wave that was
approaching out of the Tennessee Valley has diminished across the
far north, somewhat as expected. Big question is how much has this
inhibited destabilization across the north and how much recovery can
we expect before sundown. Plenty of non-surface based energy
available and although there does not appear to be another wave of
the magnitude of the previous one on track for the area overnight,
increasingly northwesterly upper flow in the deepening large scale
eastern trough, combined with the associated cold front moving into
the area, should keep at least scattered convection going into
tonight across the north. Central Georgia has seen enough sun to
build moderate instability so it appears the better chances for
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms have shifted there into
the evening. Models are not quite as fast clearing the front through
north Georgia by 12Z, but better moisture is expected to already be
shifting into central Georgia by daybreak Saturday. Low-level
convergence and ample moisture will result in good coverage of
convection across central Georgia Saturday with precipitation
chances waning across the north. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely linger across the southeastern corner of
the forecast area into Saturday evening.

Cold front is not expected to make enough progress into the forecast
area tonight for any areas to fall below seasonal normals, except
for possibly the extreme north. Cooler airmass settling south should
keep north Georgia at or even a bit below normal tomorrow with
ample clouds and precipitation down south to do likewise. Drier/
cooler airmass should be in place Saturday night for most if not all
areas to see overnight temperatures dropping below seasonal
normals.

20

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

Models are in fairly good agreement for the long term.

With the aforementioned front well to the south and Canadian high
pressure building into the area to start the long term, this will
yield a very pleasant forecast for at least the first half of the
week. A mid-level trough, which will become anchored along the
Eastern seaboard through mid-week, should help with subsidence
aloft keeping the column fairly dry through Tuesday across much
of the area. This can be most readily seen through the
anomalously low PWAT values. As the trough breaks down and the
surface high slowly shifts offshore, expect a greater moisture
feed to migrate into the region. This trend may be slow to
materialize. Therefore, the only real convection to note by mid-
week will be from orographic effects across the higher terrain and
a boundary across central/southern Georgia. We will see a bit
more coverage of precipitation Friday ahead of the next front.

Temperatures will be below normal through much of the period,
especially noticeable during the morning lows. Expect a moderation
by late week as return flow develops.

26

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Mostly VFR conditions across the area, outside of scattered
convection, through 00Z. MVFR or lower conditions developing across
the far north after 00Z, spreading south and east through 06Z with
majority of the area MVFR or lower by 06Z-14Z. Conditions improve to
VFR 14-18Z, especially across the north. Scattered convection
through 00Z, then diminishing to isolated overnight. Scattered
convection re-develops across central Georgia 12Z-18Z. West winds 8-
12kt with some gusts 16-20kt through 22Z, diminishing to 4-7kt by
03Z. Winds become more northwesterly and increase to 8-12kt after
14Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium for ceilings and convective coverage/timing.
High on all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  89  67  86 /  40  20  10   0
Atlanta         72  87  67  87 /  50  20  10   0
Blairsville     68  82  61  81 /  60  20  10   5
Cartersville    72  87  65  86 /  60  20  10   0
Columbus        74  90  69  90 /  40  40  20   0
Gainesville     71  87  66  85 /  50  20  10   0
Macon           74  90  67  89 /  40  40  20   0
Rome            71  86  64  87 /  60  20  10   0
Peachtree City  74  88  66  87 /  50  30  10   0
Vidalia         74  86  70  87 /  30  70  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20


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