Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 051901
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
301 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KY/WESTERN VA.

TWO MAIN AREAS OF PRECIP ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IS A LARGER AREA OF PRECIP IN THE SE. THE
SECOND AREA OF PRECIP IS MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE...AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LOW. A DRIER FORECAST IS EXPECTED
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO
DECREASE. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING BY SUNRISE. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY
MID MORNING.

A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING
MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE
NORTH WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN OUT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER
FLOW ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SW...SO MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD FROM THE GOMEX. WITH NO REAL BOUNDARY TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...WILL LEAVE POPS AT SCATTERED.

HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE EARLY. NOT EXPECTED THE
SCATTERED STORMS UP NORTH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS ON TAP FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH BY MID WEEK AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER RIDGE
INFLUENCE BEGINS TO TAKE BETTER HOLD BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING
RIDGE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BRING AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HELP PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS INTO THE 90S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS HEAT WILL WARRANT HOLDING
ONTO A LOW CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY... AND
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING MAX HEATING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MAYBE AN ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM. MODEL SOUNDINGS PROGGING SOME LOWER CIGS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE GONE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH MVFR CIGS AND
SCT IFR. DIURNAL CU EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH SCT COVERAGE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  89  70  92 /  40  30  20  30
ATLANTA         70  86  72  89 /  30  40  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     62  83  64  85 /  50  30  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    68  87  69  89 /  30  40  20  30
COLUMBUS        70  88  72  91 /  30  40  20  30
GAINESVILLE     68  86  70  88 /  40  30  20  30
MACON           70  90  71  93 /  30  40  20  40
ROME            68  87  69  90 /  30  40  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  69  87  69  90 /  30  40  20  30
VIDALIA         71  90  72  94 /  40  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA


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