Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 311104
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
704 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A MUCH DRIER FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FROM A RAIN STANDPOINT
THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING AWAY AND HAS TAKEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH IT. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SOME
OVER THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LACKING. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
FAR E AND SE COUNTIES WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3-4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND
CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE
TO NORMAL TONIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.

BDL

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LONG TERM PORTION BEGINS WITH A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN IN
PLACE...A STARK CONTRAST FROM WHERE WE COULD HAVE BEEN HAD ERIKA
BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER. INSTEAD...590DM UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE
LOCAL AREA WITH A GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE TO KEEP
POPS AT OR BELOW CLIMO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EXTREME SE
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE NORTHERN FRINGES OF RESIDUAL
ERIKA MOISTURE LOOKS TO PROVIDE A JOLT TO POP CHANCES WITH LOW END
LIKELY PLANNED FOR WED AFTERNOON.

PRETTY MUCH THE SAME PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES BREAK DOWN A BIT. BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS OF NOTE TO IMPACT THE REGION AND
WITH ONLY MODEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES...WILL HOLD POPS IN
THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. BLEND IS GIVING ME SOME MAX TEMPS THAT
SEEM A LITTLE LOW EVEN WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AND PLAN TO TWEAK
THOSE UP JUST A TOUCH.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NE STATES LOOKS TO BRING A WEDGE
SCENARIO TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND THIS PATTERN REALLY
WILL HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK WHILE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. USING
MOISTURE FIELDS FOR POPS...COULD ACTUALLY SEE SOME LIKELY COVERAGE
FOR THIS PATTERN BUT THIS FAR OUT WILL LIMIT TO HIGH END CHANCE
FOR THE EASTERN SECTIONS.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
IFR-MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AND
SOME DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FROM 15Z ON TO SCT-
BKN 3500-4500 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ENE LESS THAN 10
KTS BECOMING VARIABLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR VSBYS TO START.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CEILINGS AND WINDS TO START.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR CEILING IMPROVEMENT AND WIND DIRECTION
DURING THE DAY.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  89  70 /  20  10  20  20
ATLANTA         83  71  89  72 /  20  10  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     80  63  83  64 /  30  20  40  10
CARTERSVILLE    84  67  89  69 /  20  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        86  72  90  74 /  20  10  20  20
GAINESVILLE     82  69  87  71 /  20  10  20  10
MACON           86  70  89  72 /  20  10  20  20
ROME            84  67  89  69 /  20  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  83  68  88  70 /  20  10  20  20
VIDALIA         88  72  90  73 /  20  10  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...BDL


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