Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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409
FXUS62 KFFC 011144
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
744 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING HAS KEPT AN
OVERALL ACTIVE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY...AND HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT AFTER A LULL BEHIND THIS EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION...STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP BACK UP LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH
THE HI-RES MODELS AND HOW THEY RESOLVE THE ACTIVITY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. FOR
NOW...HAVE KEPT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN GOOD CHANCE POPS
OVERNIGHT.

AT THIS TIME SPC ONLY HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS. MODELS
HAVE NOSE OF HIGHER CAPE ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TO BE 18-00Z.

GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA AS WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AIDED BY THE HEATING
OF THE DAY.

31

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.

CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
BREAK IN CONVECTION THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT TO RAMP BACK UP
BY LATE MORNING. BEST TIMING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
AFTER 18Z FOR THE ATL SITES...AND AFTER 20Z FOR AHN/MCN/CSG. IFR
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN GA THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME PATCHY LIFR. MVFR ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10KT. SOME CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
MEDIUM ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          83  64  83  62 /  60  50  60  60
ATLANTA         82  65  81  62 /  60  50  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     78  59  76  58 /  60  50  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    81  62  80  61 /  60  50  70  70
COLUMBUS        85  66  84  65 /  50  40  50  60
GAINESVILLE     79  63  79  61 /  60  50  60  60
MACON           85  64  86  64 /  40  40  50  50
ROME            81  62  80  60 /  60  40  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  82  61  81  61 /  50  50  60  60
VIDALIA         86  67  87  68 /  40  30  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...31



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