Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 220948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
348 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Winds will continue to be the most significant weather across the
area today and tonight. The jet core will be over west-central CO
and gradually move east reaching the eastern CWA border Sat.
morning. The gradient will also gradually relax today and moisture
will increase so no need for wind advisories or red flag warnings.
Moisture will continue to increase Saturday with the closed low
dropping south into southern NV and the main area of uplife shift
to the front range.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The relatively deep closed low pressure system is expected to
continue to impact the region during the latter part of the
weekend. The low`s center moves from western Utah to the central
part of the state Saturday night, then lifts over extreme
northeast Utah late in the day Sunday driving a cold front across
the area. Latest models indicated a fairly substantial dry slot
will work over the area limiting precipitation to the northernmost
forecast zones from Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures
aloft are cold enough to support snow down to near 8,000 feet in
the eastern Uinta Mountains, but limited moisture will prevent
significant accumulations.

Drier conditions will prevail Sunday night into Monday as the low
center continues to lift to the northeast. A secondary
disturbances moving down the flanks of the system just discussed
will keep a large scale trough over the area through Tuesday.
However, drier westerly flow will leave little chance for
precipitation. A final surge of energy will drop into the base of
the trough Wednesday and is expected to linger into Thursday. This
will bring a good chance for showers and afternoon thunderstorms,
though warmer temperatures at the 7H level will cause snow levels
to rise above the timberline.

Colder air filling in behind the first system discussed previously
will drive afternoon highs to around 15 degrees below normal
Sunday and Monday. Temperatures rebound at midweek, but will still
run around 5 degrees below normal. Lows will be quite cold Monday
and Tuesday mornings and a number of areas may see season ending
freezing temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites the next 24 hours
with strong SW winds aloft causing areas of mechanical turbulence.




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