Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 260737
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING AND PUSH
THROUGH BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL ON TUESDAY...LASTING THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LIKELY.  TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT NEAR THE
END OF THE WEEK AS WARM/MOIST EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS LEADING TO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 210 AM...CLOUDS MOVING SW ACROSS THE AREA HAVE THINNED
ALLOWING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND MIDLANDS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AND IS ADVECTING INTO THE
SERN CWFA. THESE CLOUDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE ERN UPSTATE AND I-77
CORRIDOR OF NC WITH THE SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FOR NOW...DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN PATCHY DENSE FOG...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS
THE FOG COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BEFORE DAYBREAK. EITHER WAY...
EXPECT THE FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE RELATIVELY QUICKLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. SHUD END UP BEING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE CWFA
WITH SWLY WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A LOW LEVEL CAP
REMAINS IN PLACE THRU THE DAY KEEPING ANY CONVECTION AT BAY. WITH
RISING THICKNESSES...HIGHS END UP BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND SHUD KEEP ANY FOG PATCHY. A DRY FCST
IS STILL EXPECTED AS ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
WELL TO OUR NW. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A RATHER POTENT JULY FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST PERIOD INITIALIZES SUNDAY MORNING
AMONGST STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF AXIS.
THIS TROF WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ALONG THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPS.  DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AT PEAK HEATING WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  WESTWARD STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT REGIONS
LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE DETERIORATING AFTER SUNSET.  THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING
1500J/KG...WITH INCREASING SHEER ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH LIMITED DUE TO
LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  AS FOR THE FORECAST...POPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOLID CHANCE LEVEL
POPS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

PREFRONTAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP/PERSIST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN.  THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AS DRY AIR SLOWLY ADVECTS IN ALOFT ALLOWING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
STEEPEN.  SHEER WILL BE IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
NOCTURNAL 50KT LLJ DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FRONTAL CONVECTION
ARRIVES.  DESPITE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NOT BEING OPTIMAL
DUE TO OVERNIGHT FROPA TIMING...SHEAR AND UPPER DIVERGENCE BENEATH
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAX WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP
UPDRAFTS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS
PRIMARY THREATS.  EXPECTING A LULL IN STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY AROUND
DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND BETTER
UPPER DIVERGENT REGION SLIDES NORTHEAST.  THAT SAID...NOT EXPECTING
THIS TO LAST LONG AS CONVECTION WILL RAMP UP IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS HEATING STEEPENS LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO
ADVECT THROUGH THE REGION.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF SAID CONVECTIVE RE-INITIATION AS MODELS KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF QPF RESPONSE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA.  REGARDLESS...WHEREVER THIS OCCURS AM
EXPECTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING OF MOST CONCERN.  WILL CONTINUE WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE WORDING IN THE HWO FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING...SPREADING EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  AS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...ONLY
CHANCE LEVEL POPS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM EDT SATURDAY...THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD INITIALIZES
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT LYING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.  DEEP UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.  A
SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES WILL SURGE THROUGH THE MEAN UPPER FLOW
LEADING TO POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ON
TUESDAY...PERHAPS SPREADING INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY THE AFTERNOON
EVENING HOURS.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SPILL
INTO THE MIDWEST AND SLOWLY SLIDE EAST LEADING TO NORTHERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE INTO THURSDAY.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION RETURNING TO THE REGION BY WEEKS END AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS EASTERLY LEADING TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THUS...THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH POPS INCREASING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...THE FORECAST WILL INITIALIZE AND REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE ONLY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
HIGHLIGHTED DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT UPPER TROF
PATTERN.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE MOST NOTABLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  EXPECTING
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL TO NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY MODERATING BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE EXCEPT KAVL...THE LOW CLOUDS FROM EARLIER HAVE
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS MOVING
BACK INTO THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS S TO SW. THAT SAID...CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT STRATUS RETURNING FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NW. THIS COULD KEEP FOG FORMATION TO THE NORMALLY MORE FOGGY
AREAS. AGAIN...THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT MORE FOG THAN THAT. ANY
RESTRICTIONS THAT DO DEVELOP SHUD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK.
LIGHT S TO SW WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SWLY WINDS DEVELOPING
WITH MIXING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME HIGH BASED
CU DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

AT KAVL...PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THEN MEAN THAT FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ARE IN STORE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD TEMPER
THIS SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH RESTRICTIONS ALREADY FORMING...THEY MAY NOT
KEEP IFR FROM DEVELOPING. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHUD DISSIPATE BEFORE MID
MORNING WITH CU DEVELOPING THRU THE DAY. CALM WIND OVERNIGHT BECOMES
NLY DURING THE MORNING THEN SLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY MON NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER
THROUGH MID WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH  82%     HIGH  96%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  92%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  96%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  91%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CDG
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...RWH






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