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000
FXUS61 KGYX 131409
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR
VERY WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR TO INVADE THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE COAST TUESDAY
AND STALL RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THURSDAY AND PUSHES THE
FRONT TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE: PREVIOUS FCST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION AND TIMING
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INPUT LATEST OBS DATA AND ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISC:
THE WARM FNT PUSHES TO THE NE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY TOADY. THIS
BRINGS IN VERY WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR FOR TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP...FIRST OVER THE N/MT/FAR WRN ZONES
WHERE INSTABILITY INCREASES FIRST AS INDICATED BY CAPE...LI AND
850 MB THETA-E VALUES...THEN SPREADING TO THE E AND SE LATER
TODAY. SOME TSTMS COULD HAVE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAIN IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY INCREASING
AND VEERING WINDS FROM SFC TO 700 MB.

WINDS PICK UP TODAY FROM THE S SW WHICH BRINGS IN COOLER AIR OFF
THE OCEAN FOR COASTAL ZONES...THEN SPREADS FURTHER INLAND OVER SRN
AND CENTRAL MAINE. THIS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS TODAY. ALSO...THE
INCREASING CLOUDS THEN DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL HOLD BACK TEMPS
ACROSS THE FCST AREA. LOOK FOR HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S N/MT AND
COASTAL ZONES AND MAINLY 80 TO 85 ELSEWHERE. IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF
LONGER ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THEN INLAND TEMPS COULD RISE A
BIT HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SHRA/TSTMS CONT AT LEAST INTO THIS EVE THEN LET UP OVERNIGHT.
AREAS OF F LIKELY TO FORM IN THE WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAD RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

THE VERY WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU. THE
INSTABILITY COVERS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FCST AREA AS INDICATED
BY FCST CAPE...LI AND 850 MB THETA-E VALUES. THUS EXPECT
SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY TSTMS WITH
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY FAIRLY STRONG AND
VEERING WINDS FROM SFC TO 700 MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A BIT UNSETTLED IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODELS INDICATING THE COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT KEEPING THE REGION IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES COULD
RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FROM WEDNESDAY AND MOVES NORTHEAST
SCRAPING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR
BUT THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE SFC LOW. AT ANY RATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY WHILE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEE SOME CLEARING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN
DEVELOPING SCT TO MAYBE OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSTMS LATER TODAY AND
TNGT AND CONTINUING ON MONDAY. SOME H/F THAT COULD LOWER VSBY AND
PERHAPS CIG EARLY THIS MORNING THEN AGAIN LATER TNGT INTO MONDAY.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MVFR/IFR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY WHILE COASTAL LOCATION REMAIN
MVFR/IFR. VFR RETURNING THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA RESULTING IN MINOR, IF ANY, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FCST. WILL CONT THE SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU TNGT AS
S SW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS...FIRST OVER
THE OPEN WATERS THEN EXTENDING EVEN INTO THE BAYS. WINDS LET UP
FOR MONDAY...WITH SEAS A LITTLE SLOWER TO RESPOND.

LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 11.7 FT AT PORTLAND, WHICH WILL BE
ONE OF THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR, WILL OCCUR AT 1236 AM MONDAY. THE
11.6 FT PREDICTED TIDE AT 1143 PM SATURDAY REACHED 11.84 FT. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD PUSH THE SURGE
HIGHER THAN THE 0.24 FT OF THIS PAST HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE TIDE TO REACH...OR GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE, THE 12.0 TIDAL
FLOOD STAGE AT PORTLAND. SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS POSSIBLE...THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE HIGH TIDE TNGT...FROM 11 PM TO 2 AM.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     MEZ023>028.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.

&&

$$