Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 010648
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
248 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST
A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO
WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER
60S SOUTH.

AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP
IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING
THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH
IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX
POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF
PRCP.

AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK.

OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT.

USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR
PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG
THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN
WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT
FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER
PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST
PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$




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