Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300245
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
845 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 8 PM...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ABOUT JASPER TO
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT TO COLUMBUS. A COLD FRONT LAGGED ABOUT
50-60 MILES TO THE NW AND EXTENDED FROM ABOUT LUFKIN TO HUNTSVILLE
TO BRENHAM. SFC DEW PTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WITH THE FRONT CLEARING IAH BETWEEN 04-05Z AND THE
COAST BETWEEN 06-07Z. THE ONLY ISSUE OF CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG PRIOR TO THE FROPA. FEEL THE PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE IS RATHER SMALL BUT IT WON`T HURT TO KEEP THE MENTION
OF FOG IN THE WX GRIDS THROUGH 06Z. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...SLIGHTLY STRONG WINDS WILL HELP MIX THINGS OUT AND
CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SE TX. CONSIDERABLY COOLER
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH OF A WARM UP EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
PREV FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY/WX
GRIDS BUT INTEGRITY OF PREV FCST PACKAGE IS ON THE MARK. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SE TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN 2 TO 4
HOURS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH KCLL AND KUTS BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z...INTO METRO HOUSTON BY
04Z...AND THE COAST BETWEEN 05Z AND 07Z. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY TO FOG AT BOTH KGLS AND KLBX AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE HAS PASSED WACO
AND IS NEARING COLLEGE STATION. DRY TODAY WITH WEST AND NW WINDS
ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 62 DEWPOINT AT
GLS AT 21Z WITH SW WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO RELAX IN THE COMING
HOURS AND SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A GORGEOUS EVENING IN MOST
AREAS. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
WHERE GULF MOISTURE HAS CREPT INLAND AND AS BL SHRINKS RAPIDLY MAY
GET A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT FOG BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SCOURS OUT THE
MOISTURE...BY MIDNIGHT-2AM. COOLER TOMORROW WITH 1035MB HIGH OVER
OK/MO AND SE TX FIRMLY IN COOL NE FLOW. FRONT PUSHES DOWN INTO
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER LOW NEARING BAJA WOBBLES SOUTHWEST
INTO WESTERN MEXICO...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OVER-RUNNING
MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND AND SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK S/W
TRACKS ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING JET OVERHEAD. SATURDAY THE
MOISTURE SPREADS BACK OVER THE AREA (ATOP THE COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE) AND LIGHT RAIN SHOULD BREAK OUT IN THE WEST POSSIBLY BY
LATE MORNING THEN SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY LOOK LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS THAT TOP THE PALTRY AMOUNTS EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH 6 PM. WIDESPREAD RAINS OF .25-.50" WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AS TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASS SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA. DRIER/COOLER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LOW FINALLY
LIFTS OUT ON TUESDAY AND OVER-RUNNING RAINS RETURN MAKING TUESDAY
CLOUDY AND MURKY AND WET. ANOTHER STRONG POLAR AIRMASS IS DROPPING
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND (AFTER MODIFYING) SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. IT LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 45

MARINE...
THE MAIN HAZARD TO MARINE INTERESTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
CENTER AROUND SEVERAL COLD FRONT PASSAGES...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WARRANTING CAUTION OR POSSIBLY ADVISORY FLAGS.
THE FIRST FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND REACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW OVER THE WATERS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY MORNING. CAUTION FLAGS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES BREAK AWAY FROM A
LARGER SYSTEM NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. A SECOND...STRONGER
FRONT IS STILL IN THE OFFING FOR LATE SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED BEHIND THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      44  60  43  61  54 /   0   0  10  40  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  61  43  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            52  57  49  59  52 /  10   0  10  20  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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