Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 092253
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
253 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH PATCHY NIGHT AND
MORNING FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR. AN OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED
WARM UP THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EVEN MORE WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN
THE 70S. AS OF 2PM...FRESNO AND BAKERSFIELD HAD ALREADY BROKEN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE DAY...WITH 74 AND 78 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY. WILL LIKELY SEE THEM CLIMB A BIT MORE WITH ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO OR WARMING TO GO. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND OFFSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...
SO EXPECT VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACNW AND BRING SOME COOLING...WITH
FURTHER COOLING OVER THE WEEKEND AIDED BY AN ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW.
BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH. RIDGING REBUILDS FROM THE EPAC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A REBOUND TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST BY MIDWEEK WITH A TROUGH NEARING
THE COAST AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF MODEL IS
CURRENTLY THE MOST BULLISH WITH THIS IDEA.

THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. DO NOT EXPECT
THESE TO INCREASE ANY BUT IT WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT SLOWLY WEAKENS FURTHER. MODEST GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE IN
INTO THURSDAY. THE SURFACE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO ONSHORE ON FRIDAY
AND PEAKS ON SATURDAY WITH SOME BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE KERN COUNTY MTNS INTO THE DESERT AS
WELL AS THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR TULE FOG WILL CONTINUE EACH NIGHT IN THE SJV AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF MVFR IN HAZE/FOG AND WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS FROM 12Z TO 20Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 9 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-09       71:2012     45:1923     56:1987     27:1891
KFAT 02-10       75:1961     44:1894     54:1916     29:1965
KFAT 02-11       73:1925     46:2001     53:1970     28:1948

KBFL 02-09       77:2012     42:1919     58:1975     24:1929
KBFL 02-10       79:1961     47:1967     54:1973     23:1929
KBFL 02-11       81:1925     45:1989     56:1925     20:1901
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...ROWE/DCH
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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