Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 242102
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
202 PM PDT MON OCT 24 2016
A cold front will become stationary to our north today and
gradually fall apart on Tuesday as a weak upper ridge will build
over us through Wednesday and early Thursday. A storm system will
impact the region on Friday with rain and high elevation snow with
gradual clearing Saturday and a return of precipitation Sunday and
Tonight through Wednesday...Very deep cyclone off the PAC NW
coast with associated cold front draped across NRN CA attm. The
front is not expected to make very much southward progress tonight
and is forecast to remain north of Merced county. Plenty of clouds
this afternoon will gradually clear out as a weak upper ridge is
forecast to build across the region through Wednesday with a
warming and drying trend.
Thursday through Saturday...Models continue to have some
difficulty agreeing when the precipitation will move into the
area. The GFS is around 12 hours slower than the ECM. The ECM is
bringing the precip into the western edge of the CWA around noon
Thursday and the GFS is around midnight Friday. The track of the
storm is nearly identical as both agree that Friday will be a
rainy day across the central CA interior. Snow levels are expected
to be high, around 10k-11k feet, due to the origin of the system
being sub tropical. The other interesting feature concerning the
system is the NE trajectory. If the midweek ridge holds in too
long and shunts the track of the low farther to the west, then qpf
amounts will be less. The track has been consistent in the
forecast and this is good. Really difficult to pinpoint any rain
amounts yet, as the ECM and GFS are different in their solutions
about QPF as well as timing. Clearing will be gradual on Saturday
as unsettled weather is once again approaching from the west
directly behind this storm.
Sunday through Monday...Another storm system with more of a colder
origin from the Gulf of AK will move into the region on Sunday.
The models are in decent agreement with the timing and track, as
this system will be a quick moving system and looks to be east of
the CWA by Monday with drier and cooler airmass behind it on
Monday. Current forecast data indicates that the bulk of the
precip will be north of Kern county, with Merced county getting
the wettest. However, it is too far out to tell how much precip
MVFR ceilings with areas of IFR and terrain obscurations associated
with isolated showers over the Sierra through 00Z Tuesday, otherwise
VFR conditions can be expected for the central California interior.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.