Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 201119
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
319 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. BY SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR AREAS OF NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG WILL BE
INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. IN THE PAST 6
HOURS...MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVED ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH TO JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGH RES MODELS
INDICATE THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EVEN SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SPRINKLES WERE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY...HOWEVER
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SLOWLY
EAST TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. THE HIGH
RES MODELS EVEN SHOW SPRINKLES LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH THE FORECAST POSSIBLY UPDATED THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PAST WEEK OR SO OF RAIN AND AS THE THE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EAST...PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BECOME POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH DIURNAL TEMPERATURES CHANGES OF ONLY 10 DEGREES
OR SO.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...ELIMINATING ANY FOG CHANCES AND
BRINGING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS
LARGE...GIVING LOW FORECAST CERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO ANY
PRECIPITATION.

THE REGION STAYS IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA
IN ADDITION TO THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-20       70:2005     35:1908     53:1969     24:1897
KFAT 12-21       71:1955     34:1998     54:1964     23:1897
KFAT 12-22       70:1964     35:1998     57:1955     19:1990

KBFL 12-20       76:1944     35:1908     54:1964     26:1928
KBFL 12-21       78:1919     36:1998     59:1977     23:1905
KBFL 12-22       76:2005     34:1998     56:1977     20:1990
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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