Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 222047
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
147 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUED TO DOMINATE THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA AND
A SUBTLE WARMING TREND. AS OF 1 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT VALLEY TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80 DEGREES BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND...ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR MERCED AND MARIPOSA
COUNTIES AS WELL AS FAR WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA...RAIN IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE THE RAIN WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MERCED AND MARIPOSA
COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN FRESNO COUNTY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS STILL VERY LOW THAT THE AREA WILL SEE ANY
RAIN...GIVEN THAT THE ENSEMBLE FORECAST KEEPS TRENDING DRIER AND
DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST STILL INDICATES
VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ONE RESULT OF THIS TROUGH WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THE COOLING
TREND WHICH WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SATURDAY
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WITH THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AREA...IT MAY EVEN FEEL A
FEW DEGREES COOLER! SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REGION SUNDAY INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975
KFAT 10-24       95:1959     59:1897     63:1982     36:1956

KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
KBFL 10-24       95:1959     59:1971     67:1982     32:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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