Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 290149 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
849 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016


To remove thunderstorms from the forecast and adjust air/dewpoint
temperature forecast.



The mid-upper trough/low that brought showers and storms earlier
today through this evening is continuing to move across the OH/MS
river valleys. This feature is still bringing an almost linear area
of diminishing showers across the TN valley. These light to very
light showers are all that remains of the cluster of showers/storms
that were progressing across MS and northern AL. With loss of daytime
heating and lack of instability not expecting any further development
of thunderstorms overnight. However, there is enough lift and
moisture to support additional isolated to scattered showers. So,
though updates have already taken place with shifting POPs/Wx based
on the trends this evening, did proceed with this update to remove
thunderstorms until late tomorrow morning. Furthermore, also reduced
POPs significantly with a NW (higher)/SE (lower) gradient. Addressing
the POPs/Wx for tomorrow morning, instability is fairly limited until
the noon timeframe. So, may only see isolated embedded thunderstorms
within the shower activity.

Lastly, tweaks to the air and dewpoint temperature forecast were
also necessary to account for rain-cooled air that was cooler or
warmer that what was forecast.



(Issued 648 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016)
For 00Z TAFs: Low clouds are expected to continue to move across the
taf sites overnight. Have kept in MVFR ceilings at HSV and MSL with
VCSH until 05z. Predominant IFR ceilings and VCSH are expected at
around 05z at HSV and MSL and are expected to continue until around
the 13z-14z time frame. MVFR ceilings should continue until around
17z, when the lower clouds are expected to scatter with lower level
VFR ceilings expected through the end of the forecast period. Expect
that VCTS will be possible after 17z at both taf sites.



.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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