Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 010603
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 950 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
OVERALL...THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD CONDITION THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES REQUIRED IN THE GRIDS. MODELS
REMAIN IN AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO A GRADUAL
THICKENING OF CIRROSTRATUS/ALTOSTRATUS DECKS THROUGH 12Z. ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA OVERNIGHT...SUBCLOUD
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN FAR TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION. LOW TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...BUT MAY
ACTUALLY BE A DEGREE OR SO TOO COOL GIVEN EXPECTED TRENDS IN CLOUD
COVER AND AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED BETWEEN 6-12Z. A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DEWPOINT/RH GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS...AND
THESE WILL BE REFLECTED IN UPCOMING UPDATES TO THE PFM/AFM.

70/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST
REASONING...WITH BKN/OVC AS CIGS ARND 15 KFT AND A STRENGTHENING SE
FLOW EXPECTED THRU 01/12Z. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM W-TO-E
BTWN 11-13Z AS RICH MOISTURE SPREADS NWD INTO THE REGION. SHRA THREAT
WILL INCREASE BTWN 13-15Z...WITH MVFR STRATUS BCMG ESTABLISHED DURING
THIS PERIOD AS WELL. COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL INITIALLY BE SCT AND HAVE
ONLY INDICATED VCSH THRU MID MORNING. SHRA WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND HAVE INDICATED THIS AS PREVAILING
WX COND ALONG WITH BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL VEER TO WNW BTWN
02/02-04Z WITH ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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