Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 201650
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1050 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1050 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Overall, there are no significant changes to the near term grids
this morning -- with all elements fairly representative of current
and expected conditions. Although weak mid-level subsidence currently
exists in the wake of a trough which impacted our region yesterday,
low-level warm advection will support a broken-overcast deck of low
stratus clouds and perhaps a few light showers or sprinkles through
mid-afternoon. However, temperatures should still manage to reach the
u60s/l70s this afternoon in light-moderate southerly low-level flow
regime, regardless of the lingering cloud cover. Near term grids have
been updated to reflect this reasoning, and updated text products
will be issued shortly.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

The dry period will not last long, however, as another round of rain
pushes into the area late tonight in response to the next upper-
level system exiting the base of the western CONUS trough. This
system carries some potential of severe weather with it due to the
increasing wind field and persistent warmth/moisture. While there
will be abundant shear early Saturday morning, instability will be
elevated with a stable boundary layer. That changes around midday
with the approach of a weak warm front, which creates much more
instability but far less low-level shear (though still-impressive
deep-layer shear). As a result, there appears to be a very narrow
window near the front where instability and shear are better
balanced, suggesting a small tornado threat. Once the front passes,
the threat transitions to more of a damaging wind and (particularly)
large hail threat as the deep shear and instability dominate. The 00Z
short term models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario,
but run-to-run consistency has not been that good, so this could
change again quickly.

That severe threat will abate quickly after sunset as the second
shortwave pivots up into the upper Midwest, but the third round
(this time a full-blown low) will arrive quickly on its heels. This
system looks to be more of a rainfall producer. An initial batch of
rain will develop late Saturday night--and looks to be focused more
along the Gulf Coast based on the shortwave track. It gets more
interesting later Sunday as the low moves almost right over
Birmingham, potentially putting us in a favorable deformation-band
setup for heavy rainfall. Model/ensemble spread here is much larger,
though; such a band may well develop but its location remains
uncertain at this point. (This is the type of pattern we`d look for
to produce heavy snow if the temperatures were about 30 degrees
colder.) As it is, the cold core overhead will produce steep lapse
rates and depressed freezing levels, so thunderstorms are a good
possibility, as is the threat of small hail. The low will move east
Sunday night, gradually ending the rain and the prolonged unsettled
pattern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

With the upper and potentially deep surface low departing to the
northeast through the Carolinas on Monday, it will place a strong
pressure gradient across the TN valley. The airmass will rather
homogeneous at this point (i.e. little temp advection), but have
increased wind gusts over suggested blended guidance with 25-30kt
gusts quite possible, especially in higher terrain.  Rain showers
will eventually depart from west to east during the day.  A narrow
high pressure ridge will shift east through the OH/TN valleys on
Tuesday with weak warm advection developing.  Highs should recover
into the u50s/l60s.  A more developed warm/moist conveyor belt
should be in place Tuesday night into Wednesday in advance of next
Pacific cold front.  Low PoPs have been placed in the forecast for
light rain as a result.  However, the medium range models differ on
the frontal bands progression southeast of the area as the
positively tilted upper trof builds southeast into the southern
CONUS.  The ECMWF is drier and faster and the GFS is wetter and
slower with the rain band.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Occasional stratus in the 1-2kft layer has been enough to keep fog
from forming this morning, and those MVFR ceilings will continue to
be the main issue through the day. They will begin to break up late
this afternoon, allowing for a few hours of VFR conditions before
sunset. However, models are pointing strongly to fog forming after
sunset at KHSV/KMSL. For now, the TAFs will include MVFR vis since
thick mid-level clouds are expected, but lower visibilities are
possible if the clouds take longer to move in. Showers and storms
will move in from the SW at the very end of the TAF period, so they
were not included with this issuance.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...BCC
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...BCC


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at weather.gov/huntsville.



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