Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 250011 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
711 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 212 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/
SOME LINGERING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS IN MOST LOCATIONS. IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS PRETTY HARD
TONIGHT. SINCE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED...INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVENING OR MIDNIGHT SHIFT MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE FOG COVERAGE OR DENSITY MORE...BUT FOR NOW HOLDING THE
CONSERVATIVE ROUTE IN GRIDS.

ALTHOUGH MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BRIEFLY PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...THE VERY STRONG 596 MB UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS PROG 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING TO
AROUND 580 MB BY SATURDAY AND THEN 582 MB BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
MEAN HOT CONDITIONS WILL BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE...DESPITE A FRONT HAVING JUST PASSED THROUGH AREA
RECENTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUST UP SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BELIEVE HIGHS WILL REACH 95 TO 97 DEGREES DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING 98 OR 99 AT KMSL ON SUNDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE PICTURE BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S
AND AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY COULD
APPROACH 105 DEGREES. SO BE PREPARED AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS OVER
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO EXERCISE OR WORK OUTSIDE.

LUCKILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A SECOND...LIKELY STRONGER...COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
ALABAMA. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIT MORE SHEAR AND WIND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS
FRONT LOOKS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL...SO COOLER AIR SHOULD MOVE
INTO THE AREA AS A RESULT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING MOSTLY BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD
THE COVERAGE IS (AND THE DENSITY OF THE FOG) IS UP FOR DEBATE. DRIER
AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH, BUT LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. FOR
NOW, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THIS
OCCURRENCE AND REASSESS THE THREAT WITH THE 06Z ISSUANCE. ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDS AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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