Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 292322 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
622 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...INITIAL CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT HSV
AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 07Z...WHEN MVFR CEILINGS LESS THAN 2KFT QUICKLY
MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL SITES. HAVE DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH
PREDOMINANT 5SM SHRA AT BOTH HSV AND MSL UNTIL AROUND 10Z TO ACCOUNT
FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
PROGGED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MSL BETWEEN 09Z-10Z
AND AT HSV BY AROUND 10Z. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL
IMPROVE CEILINGS TO THE VFR CATEGORY WITH SKC EXPECTED BY 15Z AT MSL
AND 16Z AT HSV.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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