Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 051729 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1016 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/
MORNING SHOWERS...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BROUGHT
BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
SECTIONS OF FRANKLIN COUNTY TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
LOCATIONS NEAR ESTILL SPRINGS...WINCHESTER...AND JUST SOUTH OF COWAN
LIKELY RECEIVED THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS JUST OVER 1 INCH. THIS ACTIVITY
WAS BEING PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS PUSHING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.

THIS UPPER LOW HAS BROUGHT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO CLEAR
OUT OVER MANY LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUNTSVILLE TO
ANDERSON. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY AT LEAST BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
AGAIN RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING...NOT SURE IT WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SW OF THE
AFORE-MENTIONED LINE INTO THE MID 80S IN THOSE LOCATIONS. SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
TOTALLY RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH...A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...EXTENDING WEST- NORTHWEST FROM THE SW PORTION OF THE
UPPER LOW. BELIEVE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN LATE
MORNING HOURS IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE. WINDS
ALOFT..EVEN AT 500 MB ARE FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS). MODELS DO ALLOW
CAPE VALUES TO CLIMB FAIRLY WELL TODAY...WHICH BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS SEEMS REASONABLE SOUTH OF THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.

COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS THAT
COULD PRODUCE WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORM TO DEVELOP TODAY. DUE THE WEAK NATURE OF THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY...KEEPING THE SCATTERED POPS (40-50 PERCENT) FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CHANGES WERE MADE TO REORIENT THE POPS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH EXPECTED LOCATION OF BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. OTHERWISE NO
OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH AND LOW
CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THESE MVFR CIGS AND PRECIP MAY AFFECT THE KMSL
AND KHSV TERMINALS PERIODICALLY THROUGH 22Z. LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED AFTER 07Z...AS THE ATMOSPHERE AND GROUND
CONDITIONS REMAIN SATURATED.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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