Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 281738 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1035 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA NW
INTO KENTUCKY INTO ILLINOIS. SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO BE
EVIDENT TODAY IN NE AL/NW GA. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARIES EXTENDING SW FROM DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT...WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
SCATTERED COVERAGE (30 PERCENT) TO OCCUR WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...MAINLY IN NE AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. MESOSCALE MODELS
INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE FROM DISTURBANCES FURTHER
NORTH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TN.

HOWEVER...NEAR I-65 AND POINTS WEST...HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S...AND WILL LIKELY SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT BEST.
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDING AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN THROUGH ~ 550 MB...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL MIX OUT TODAY.
THEREFORE RAISED DEWPOINTS A BIT THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE GRIDS AND
KEPT THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE MUSCLE
SHOALS TOPPED OUT AT 100 DEGREES...BUT DECIDED TO GO 99 AS A HIGH.
WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TODAY...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-
65...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110
DEGREES.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE KMSL AND KHSV
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY...WILL ONLY
CARRY VCTS IN THE TAFS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES IF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASES. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>007-016.

TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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