Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 231613

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1013 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1013 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

There is little sensible weather to speak of across the Tennessee
Valley for Thanksgiving 2017. High pressure is centered over the
ArkLaTex, with a broad mid-level trough axis quickly approaching the
Huntsville CWFA. Scattered cirrus clouds associated with the trough
overnight have since dissipated, but there are scattered-broken
cumulus clouds developing ahead of the trough over northeast Alabama.
After a cold start with nearly all locations in the 20s, temperatures
have since rebounded into the mid-upper 40s.

Aside from the rogue cloud cover in eastern areas, the forecast is in
good shape with no reason for major changes. Highs in the mid-upper
50s--trending on the warm side of the blended guidance--looks very
reasonable considering current trends and recent history. The clouds
in the east should not last long as the trough quickly shifts east.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Another fantastic radiational cooling night is forecast for tonight
but with slightly warmer 850mb temps and a moisture surge from the
southeast, lows will be slightly warmer, in the upper 20s to middle
30s. As the surface high shifts east on Friday, winds at the surface
turn southwesterly, helping warm highs in to the lower 60s and lows
in the lower 40s. A weak trough will move through on Saturday but
the low levels of the atmosphere remain pretty dry. This front
should only bring an increase in mid to high level clouds Sat and
then start to clear out again Sat night. The cooler northwest flow
will drop lows Sat night into the middle to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Another strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states will
begin to build ewd into the SE region by the start of Sun, in the
wake of a cold frontal passage earlier in the weekend. Any lingering
cloud cover from the earlier frontal passage should also be quickly
exiting to the SE, as drier air below H5 begins to stream into the
cntrl TN Valley. The influx of cooler air should also be fairly
brief, with lows perhaps falling close to the freezing mark Sun
night, before a gradual warming trend begins going more into the new
work week. Highs look to climb back toward the 60F mark on Mon, with
lows that night trending more in the upper 30s/around 40F, as the
sfc high begins to translate ewd into the mid/srn Atlantic Basins.

With the sfc high exiting to the E, Gulf moisture may be able to
stream back into the region Tue into Wed, given the development of a
return flow pattern. Highs on Tue also look to rebound more into the
mid 60s, before the influx of cloud cover out of the W begins Tue
night. The latter half of the global model runs are still suggesting
another cold front dropping into the region around the middle of next
week, as an upper trough pattern quickly moves ewd across the Plains
states. There is some timing discrepancies between the latest ECMWF
and GFS, with the GFS the faster solution with the frontal passage by
some 12-24 hrs. Persistence would keep this next cold frontal passage
in the late Tue/Wed time frame. Given some moisture return back into
the area coupled with some weak dynamic lift along the oncoming sfc
boundary, the next chc of rain/showers still looks to be in the late
Tue thru Wed evening time frame. Any rainfall should then quickly
make its way to the SE by Thu with the passage of the cold front as
another strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states builds
ewd into the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CST Thu Nov 23 201

Winds will vary between 350-020 degrees today but remain around 6kts
or less. Skies should be mostly clear for the day with maybe a few
high clouds filtering in this afternoon. Winds become light and
variable after sunset tonight.





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