Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 010242
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
942 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE MINOR CHANGES WITH SKY GRIDS AND WORDING...OTHERWISE CURRENT
FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER WRN TN/ERN AR.
NO PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST.
MRNG LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/ARND 60 ALSO LOOKS ON TRACK...AS WELL AS
THE REST OF THE FCST PARAMETERS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 622 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
FOR 00Z TAFS...A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER AR WILL SPREAD SCT AC/CI
ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIR
MASS OVER THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER NAM DOES HINT AT THE CHC OF MVFR
FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z ALONG WITH SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS (ARND 2000
FT). ATTM WILL NOT INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS...BUT WILL MONITOR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/
ONCE THE EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS FINALLY DIMINISHED/LIFTED...IT HAS
TURNED OUT TO BE A FAIRLY NICE AND QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...ALBEIT A LITTLE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A BROAD
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PRETTY MUCH IN CONTROL OF THE OVERALL WX
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS...WITH A SECONDARY HIGH LAYERED
W TO E ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS. UPPER RIDGING OUT OF
THE PLAINS STATES WAS ALSO TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE SE/GULF REGION
THIS TUE AFTERNOON...THEREBY HELPING WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS IN PLACE...OR MORE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW DEGREES LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE BROAD SFC HIGH SHIFTS FAR TO THE E/NE...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AFTER MID WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY SLOW...BEFORE A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OUT OF
THE NWRN STATES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON THU. A SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE NRN/MID
PLAINS STATES IS ALSO XPCTED TO DRAG A COLD FRONT EWD THROUGH THE
REGION THU NIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

AS MENTIONED...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA LATE THU...AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE MID/SRN
PLAINS AND PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS AND POINTS S.
LATTER HALF OF THE MODEL SUITES ARE HINTING AT SOME IMPRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FORCING DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH PATTERN. WITH A SLY
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE...SFC BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH TOTAL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THU...WITH THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY INCREASING SIG THU NIGHT. MODEST
CONVERGENCE/SPEED SHEAR ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY YIELD A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING...WITH RAINFALL/CONVECTION
THEN TAPERING OFF FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LARGE/STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW THEN LOOKS TO USHER MOD
POLAR AIR INTO THE SE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPS/DEW PTS
FALLING ANYWHERE FROM 10-20F PENDING THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

09

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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