Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 161645
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...TEMPS ACROSS FORECAST AREA ARE ALL
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK AT THIS TIME. LATEST OBS ARE SHOWING
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS A SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE
MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1228 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THIS PERIOD. DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...PROVIDING SOME MIXING AND PREVENTING FOG FORMATION.

BY THURSDAY MORNING...COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN
TO DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD INDIANA...BUT BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUALLY LOWERING OF CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP

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