Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251034
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
534 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

High pressure is going to arrive over Indiana from the west today
and remain over our state through Monday.  After a cold front passes
Tuesday, high pressure should return Wednesday.  Another front is
forecast to cross the Hoosier State Thursday. High pressure will be
back Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM (Today)...

Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

There is high confidence today will be dry as high pressure moves
in.

The day should be mostly sunny in the west. The cumulus rule from
both the GFS and the NAM indicates some stratocumulus formation in
cold advection over the Lakes, so the eastern CWA should be partly
sunny.

Today should definitely be mild for the season. Based on history,
raising consensus by a couple degrees should make a good forecast.
There is some uncertainty with the temperature forecast because
models differ on just how rapidly cold air will move in behind a
front that crossed overnight. Possible errors are 2-4 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday night)...

Issued at 101 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

There is high confidence the weather will be mostly clear. This is
unusual for the season. However there is very good model agreement
dry high pressure will make it happen.

With the underlying models close, consensus should mostly be a
good temperature forecast. It needs a tweak upward Sunday based
on recent history. Errors should be 2-4 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Issued at 134 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Models are in fairly good agreement on a weak cold front moving
through central Indiana Wednesday and Thursday. Timing is slightly
different but not enough to make much difference to low chances
for rain showers during that timeframe. More differences show up
Thursday night into Friday though, and forecast confidence is low
during that time. While current operational GFS and ECM solutions
show no qpf over the area then and high pressure building in,
ensemble solutions have slower timing and the passage of an upper
trough and thus keep some precip potential over the area during
that time. Saw no reason to make changes to the blended
initialization given the solution spread, and this produced low
chances for rain and then a rain/snow mix Thursday night.

Temperatures should run warmer than normal mid week, and then drop
to near normal after the aforementioned cold frontal passage.
Confidence is high in above normal temps Tuesday and Wednesday but
drops after that due to model variability.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 251200Z TAFs)...

Issued at 535 AM EST Sat Nov 25 2017

Dry high pressure moving in from the west will cause mostly clear
skies. Visibilities should remain P6SM. Winds will be northwest
around 10 knots with some gusts to 15-20 knots today. Expect the
winds to decrease and become more variable after dark as the center
of the high moves toward Indiana.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JK



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