Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 281413

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1013 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The AVIATION Section has been updated below.


Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Dry and warmer weather is expected through Saturday as the Ohio
Valley remains under the influence of high pressure. A cold front
will drift into the region on Sunday bringing clouds and scattered
showers before stalling then lifting back north on Monday. Warm and
dry conditions will resume for the first half of next week with
cooler weather to follow late week as a cold front brings rain
showers to the region.


.NEAR TERM /This afternoon/...

Issued at 947 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Surface analysis late this morning shows HIgh pressure in place
over Ohio...with southeast winds in place across Central Indiana.
850MB analysis shows warm air advection streaming in to Central
Indiana today as the surface high departs farther east and return
flow reestablishes itself. Aloft...weak ridging in place over the
central Plains is expected to continue to build across the area as
High cloud as seen on IR images are expected to stream across the

Forecast soundings show a dry column this afternoon with
unreachable convective temperatures. Time height sections also
show a dry column this afternoon. Thus will expected a partly
cloudy sky with warmer conditions this afternoon. Ongoing Grids
already have a handle on this...and no major changes were made.


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Forecast challenges focus on precip chances Sunday and temps
throughout the forecast period. Wavy upper flow highlighted by
ridging aloft will promote warm and dry weather through much of the
short term. The passage of a weak wave aloft and an associated cold
front moving into the region on Sunday will provide a brief period
of cooler and potentially unsettled weather before ridging aloft
reestablishes for early next week.

The aforementioned cold front will sag into the lower Great Lakes on
Saturday but will be unable to move any further south into central
Indiana...blocked by ridging aloft and at the surface focused over
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. With the core of the low level jet
over the Great Lakes and tight gradient between the cold front to
the north and the surface ridge to the south...expect warm and
breezy southwest winds Saturday.

The approach of the upper wave into the region from the west late
Saturday night and early Sunday will buckle heights aloft and enable
the frontal boundary to make a more concerted push south into
northern portions of the forecast area. The combination of forcing
aloft and weak isentropic lift will likely be enough to generate
scattered light showers in the vicinity of the frontal boundary on
Sunday...focused primarily over areas near and north of I-70 before
transitioning into eastern Indiana by the afternoon as the wave
aloft moves east. Anticipate a fairly cloudy day for most of the
area except perhaps the far south as model soundings favor moisture
becoming trapped beneath a sharp inversion.

The boundary will become quasi-stationary over the forecast area by
Sunday evening before lifting back north towards daybreak Monday in
response to strong low pressure tracking into the Dakotas. Despite
the front remaining in the area Sunday night...lack of appreciable
forcing aloft with the return of upper ridging will limit any
rainfall. The inversion however will only gradually weaken with
cloud cover slow to diminish as well through the night.

Temps...low level thermals support a general model blend for highs
both Saturday and Sunday. Expect upper 70s to potentially lower 80s
for Saturday from north to south. The clouds and the front will keep
temps cooler on Sunday for much of the area...ranging from the mid
60s north to mid 70s far south. Lows will remain primarily in the
50s through the period.


.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Upper ridging will keep central Indiana warm and most of the area
dry until mid week, when an upper trough pushes into the area from
the northwest. Models still differ a bit on timing, but the
uncertainty that far out leads to sticking with the model blend.

Temperatures will remain well above normal into mid week, then cool
some (but still above average) for Thursday.


.AVIATION /Discussion for the 28/1500Z TAF Update/...

Issued at 1011 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

No changes.

IFR or worse conditions possible very early in the period at
southern sites, otherwise VFR expected. Low level wind shear
possible overnight.

Ground fog/stratus could linger at KHUF/KBMG for the first hour,
with MVFR at KLAF. Conditions should improve to VFR by 14Z.

Otherwise some passing high cloud at times through the period. Low
level wind shear is possible overnight tonight as strong winds move
in aloft.





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