Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 021743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1243 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Issued at 1233 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Clouds with scattered drizzle and a few snow flakes mixed in a
times will continue through the rest of the afternoon. No snow
accumulation is expected. Cloudy skies and cool temperatures will
continue through the overnight and into Saturday. Highs today
around 40 will drop to near or around 30 tonight. Another cool
day is in store for Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 444 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

A weak upper level trof was over the area early this morning. This
system was producing some scattered light rain showers mixed with
snow at times. Surface temperatures should stay above freezing over
most areas early this morning, so minimal weather impacts are
expected. Otherwise, skies should remain cloudy to mostly cloudy
with highs near 40 today and lows near 30 tonight.



.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 444 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

This long term period will be very active with 3 systems bringing a
variety of weather to the area next week. An upper level trof will
become negatively tilted over the Great Lakes region and bring a
mainly rain and snow mix Sunday given GFS low level thermal fields.
Some light snow accumulations are likely on mainly grassy areas
especially north of highway 6 by Sunday evening; however, travel
issues appear minimal. A second system will closely follow the path
of the Sunday system with a good chance for rain Tuesday. A brief
period of a wintry mix is possible at the onset of precipitation
Monday night and early Tueday; however, little if any winter weather
hazards are expected at this time for this second system.

A third system will bring much colder air to the area late this
upcoming week. Favored a Canadian GEM/GFS blend with sharply colder
weather by early Thursday. The ECMWF develops a wave along the front
and delays the arrival of cold air until Thursday night. After
coordination with surrounding offices, cut the model blend and the
ongoing forecast highs Thursday by a few to several degrees. Lake
effect snow will develop once the much colder air spreads over the
mild lake waters. Delta T values should eventually reach close to
25C to possibly 30C, so lake effect snow accumulations appear
favorable at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016

Plenty of low level moisture, drizzle and an inversion keeps the low
level clouds around through the day and into the overnight hours.
Fuel Alternate has mainly been occurring in the drizzle but feel the
drizzle may subside some in the afternoon so have only allowed a
tempo group for Fuel Alternate at this time and have left CIGs at
MVFR. A better chance of Fuel Alternate looks to occur at SBN later
overnight and into early Saturday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ043-



SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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