Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 071033
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
633 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A
STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...
HOWEVER IT WILL BE TURNING COOLER OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

STRONG CDFNT EXTENDS FROM NRN MI TO SW MO WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND SCT TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST INTO NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 12Z AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY THIS EVE. GIVEN VERY MOIST
AIRMASS AND STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT... EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR
AREA TODAY. PWAT`S IN EXCESS OF 2" AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH
>12KFT SUGGESTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PSBL. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD COME EARLY THIS MORNING NW AND EARLY THIS AFTN SE AS
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY CAA OVERSPREAD THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE
FROM THE M-U60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE L80S SE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BRIEFLY OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA
BY MIDDAY BEFORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS MOVE IN. LACK OF SGFNT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE
MARGINALLY SVR AT WORST WITH GUSTS 40-50MPH. SOME SHOWERS MAY
LINGER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE CDFNT
BECOMES PARALLEL TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND STALLS OVER THE OH VALLEY
WITH WK SHRTWV`S MOVG ENE ALONG IT. TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
COOLER THAN MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE M50S NW TO THE
L60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

PERIOD OF STABLE/DRY CONDITIONS POST-FRONTAL INTO WEDNESDAY APPEARS
SOMEWHAT BRIEF AS RESPECTABLE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE AIDED BY
CONVECTION AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT PROPAGATES
THROUGH LATER WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY. RESULTING SFC FRONTAL
WAVE/DEFORMATION AND COMPACT CORRIDOR OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH ON THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPS
REMAIN COOL FOR MID JULY STANDARDS.

A SOUTHEAST CONUS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD/RETROGRADE TOWARD THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL US FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOCALLY WILL ALLOW MORE TYPICAL JULY HEAT/HUMIDITY
TO RETURN...BUT WITH THIS WILL COME PERIODIC SHOWER/STORM/MCS
CHANCES AS THETA-E/INSTABILITY GRADIENT OSCILLATES BETWEEN THE LOWER
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CDFNT MOVG THROUGH NE IL SHOULD PASS SBN AROUND 14Z AND FWA AROUND
18Z. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA WERE OCRG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND SHOULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS OCRG AND EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
LOWERING TO IFR BEHIND IT. SBN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTN WHILE POST FRONTAL IFR SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS EVE AT FWA
AS FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.