Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 270840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
440 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Rain chances will increase later this afternoon and tonight as
another system approaches from the west. An isolated thunderstorm
is also possible tonight. Dry conditions are expected from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening before another storm
system brings increasing chances of rain for late Wednesday night
through Friday. High temperatures today will range from the lower
to mid to upper 50s across southwest lower Michigan, to the lower
to mid 60s across northwest Ohio. Lows tonight will range from
then lower 40s to around 50.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The second upper level system to move across the area in as many
days will bring another round of showers to the area later today
through tonight. Some mainly elevated instability will bring a
slight chance for storms mostly south of highway 30. Severe storms
are not expected given weak dynamics and very limited surface based
or elevated instability. Rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning
should be around a quarter of an inch or less. Mild weather will
persist with highs today and Tuesday in the 50s and 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Cool air will spread across the area Tuesday night behind a cold
front as a large high pressure area builds south out of Canada.
Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights will dip into the 30s. The GFS
has moderated lows from earlier runs, with lows in the 30s. Kept
temperatures above freezing except for Hillsdale county with lows
of 32 degrees both nights. Given thermal profiles, the
precipitation at the onset of the next system appears early
Thursday to be all rain. Some model soundings are close to
freezing rain with a very large warm layer; however, feel there
will not be any weather impacts. Rain should end by the weekend
with highs climbing back to around 60 by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Shower activity has moved east of the terminal sites tonight
with residual drizzle at times. Currently MVFR cigs at both
sites with surface obs show MVFR and IFR cigs still upstream.
The stratus deck should keep cigs from tanking but otherwise
ideal conditions for fog development with light winds...low level
moisture and drying aloft. Cigs will trend up later
today but next wave quickly approaches late afternoon into early
evening and KSBN likely to see rain and lowering CIGS/VIS around
00Z Tue and KFWA around 02Z Tue.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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