Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 310621 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP TO TRANSITION AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. A LULL IN THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN KY FROM THE TN VALLEY
REGION. ONCE THE CURRENT BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WILL SEND ALONG ANOTHER UPDATE TO FURTHER INCREASE POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
RADAR TRENDS AND HIRES NEAR TERM MODELS POINT TO SEVERAL MORE HOURS
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING NORTHEAST INTO OUR
AREA...BUT THEN A LULL IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE NAM AND SOME OF
THE EARLIER 12Z HIRES MODELS THEN INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP...WOULD LIKELY CONTAIN TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AS PWATS ARE PROGGED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA.
AREAS SOAKED THE MOST BY TONIGHT/S RAINFALL WOULD STAND THE BEST
SHOT OF SEEING FLASH FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS. IT STILL APPEARS
THAT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WOULD BE THE MOST THREATENED FROM THIS SO
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WATCH CONFIGURATION AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
TWEAK AS NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BECOMING READILY APPARENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THAT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING HAS INCREASED FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A STREAM OF
STORMS WILL RIDE NORTH OUT OF TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. AN EXTENSION OF NWS NASHVILLE/S
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WAS COORDINATED WITH LMK. DECIDED TO EXTEND THIS WATCH
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGH PWAT AIR REMAINING
IN PLACE AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO PASS OVERHEAD. THE WATCH MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD IN TIME BUT RIGHT NOW COUNTIES HIGHLIGHTED
IN THE CURRENT WATCH STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE SHORT TERM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36
HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE CONSENSUS...WITH SOME MINOR TIMING AND
PRECIP COVERAGE DIFFERENCES OF COURSE...IS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD
OF IT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE PARENT LOW AND ITS COLD
FRONT PULL OFF TO THE EAST. THE ISSUE OF CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.8 TO OVER 2 INCHES AT TIMES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...
WITH MAX READINGS TOPPING OUT AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS AND CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE...THE
BERMUDA HIGH IS IN PLACE WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVER WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM MOIST AIR TO BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE WARM
FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY MOSTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING TO THE
EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THEN FINALLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY
THIS TIME...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
STAY ON PLACE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST
FLOW WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
UP THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND
AS THE MODELS STAYED IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR OR IFR VIS AND OR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION
WORKS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. VFR HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION
AND AS THE LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WORKS NORTH ACROSS EAST KY...VFR CIGS
ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST THE 12Z TO 15Z RANGE. THE PRESS
GRADIENT APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TAF SITES MIXY OVERNIGHT...BUT
SOME MVFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG MAY STILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z AT
NON TAF SITES. MORE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING
THE 15Z TO 18Z PERIOD...WITH THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JP






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