Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 082107
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
107 PM PST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Afternoon temperatures will warm slightly across the region
through Sunday. There is a chance of precipitation today through
Sunday...mostly north of Point Conception. Temperatures will be
near normal next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

Forecast this afternoon is going pretty much as expected. Steady
light rain has been falling along the coastal slopes of northern
SLO County, with lighter and more intermittent precip further
south on the Central Coast. Rainfall amounts so far have ranged
from 0.25-0.75" in NW SLO County, to a couple hundredths in the
Santa Maria area. Not much showing up on radar as most of the
moisture is very low-level.

A surface analysis shows a weak surface low off the coast of
northern CA, with occluded/warm front along the Central Coast and
a cold front extending to the SW across the Pacific. The cold
front will stall out, then a couple of weak disturbances will move
along the front between this afternoon and Saturday night. This
will result in periods of unsettled weather for the Central Coast
through the weekend. The best chances of rain on the Central Coast
will be this afternoon through this evening, then again Friday
afternoon/evening.

The main change to the forecast was to add a slight chance of
rain to most of the area (including south of Pt Conception) for
Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is in response to a weak
upper-level trough moving across northern CA, that should finally
push the stalled out front through the region. Rain chances should
come to an end everywhere by Sunday afternoon.

Still looking at storm total rainfall amounts through Sunday of
1.00-2.00" in NW SLO County, with locally higher amounts in areas
such as Rockey Butte. The rest of the Central Coast will like see
0.10-0.25". Areas south of Pt Conception may receive a couple
hundredths of an inch, but it`s more likely that there will be no
rain.

The mostly cloudy forecast tonight through Saturday for coastal
and valley areas south of Pt Conception might be a little over
done, but it will be mostly cloudy at times. Temperatures will
remain pretty consistent through Sunday, with highs generally in
the 60s in most places.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

Models are in fairly good agreement that a low amplitude ridge
will build over the west coast early next week. This should result
in slightly warmer conditions, with temperatures returning to near
normal. By the end of next week, the GFS and ECMWF suggest a fast
moving upper-level trough could move through the region, possibly
bring some rain to the area. At this time, just broad brushed the
area with slight chance PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...08/1800Z...

At 18Z, there was neither a marine layer or inversion.

Moderate confidence in overall story of mostly MVFR cigs working
down from north to south through Friday. Low confidence on exact
timing and how far south -RA with occasional IFR cats get. 70
percent chance of MVFR CIGS at KSBA KOXR KCMA KSMO KLAX KLGB KBUR
KVNY after 03Z...20 percent chance of IFR cigs...uncertain onset
window of 03Z to 12Z. 50 percent chance of occasional IFR at KPRB
KSBP KSMX with moderate RA...sometime between 20Z and 08Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 03Z...moderate confidence in
OVC015-025 forming after...but low confidence on timing with
onset window of 03Z to 12Z.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF through 03Z...moderate confidence in
OVC015-025 forming after...but low confidence on timing with
onset window of 03Z to 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...08/100 PM.

High confidence in winds staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels everywhere through Friday morning. Gusty west winds will
become widespread south of Point Conception Friday afternoon
through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) may be needed
for those winds (gusts to 20-25 KT) or for the steep seas (4-6
feet at 6-8 seconds) generated by them especially Saturday into
Sunday. This includes the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Monica
Basin (inner waters).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SUN-THU)

Gusty northwest winds could affect Santa Barbara County and
northern Los Angeles County on Saturday or Sunday.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sukup
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...Kj

weather.gov/losangeles



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