Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLSX 260414
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1114 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Monday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

Although it`s hard to believe based on afternoon temperatures in
the mid-70s to lower 80s, a weak cold front did move into the CWA
earlier this morning before stalling out. A surface high moving
through the western Great Lakes will nudge the stalled front a bit
farther south tonight before the boundary lifts back northeastward
as a warm front. A band of clouds may accompany the warm frontal
passage late tonight and tomorrow, although cloud cover should be
greater over the plains compared to eastern MO and western IL.
Some fog is also possible overnight ahead of the surface front,
mainly in central MO and parts of the eastern Ozarks, because dew
points should be a bit higher there compared to areas which will
still be under the influence of the surface ridge and its drier
air. Unseasonably warm temperatures (15-20 deg above average) are
expected again on Sunday and Monday.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM: (Monday night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A low pressure system was noted off the CA/OR coastline this
morning, and this system will ultimately bring a chance of
widespread rain to the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Models
depict a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE on Monday night, which should
be sufficient for a few embedded thunderstorms. Comparatively
speaking, a much cooler air mass will then spread across the
region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, ending the recent string of
unseasonably warm October days.

Isolated to scattered showers are possible on Wednesday night into
Thursday due to lift ahead of a shortwave which will be moving
through northwest flow.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A surface ridge centered over MN and IA will drop southeastward
through IL late tonight. Light nely surface winds will veer
around to an ely direction late tonight. With a clear sky and
light surface wind there may be some fog late tonight/early Sunday
morning in COU, SUS and CPS where the surface dew points will be a
little higher. The surface wind will strengthen from a sely
direction on Sunday as the surface ridge shifts east of the area
and a warm front approaches. There will likely be scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds late Sunday morning and afternoon as the
boundary layer moistens ahead of the warm front.

Specifics for KSTL: A clear sky and light surface wind late tonight.
The surface wind will increase to 9-10 kts Sunday afternoon from a
sely direction. There will likely be scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds Sunday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.