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FXUS64 KLUB 212345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND COULD AFFECT THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS KCDS HAS THE
BEST CHANCE OF A DIRECT IMPACT OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP TO COVER THIS. IT IS LESS CERTAIN WHETHER
OR NOT KLBB WILL SEE ANY MOIST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHWEST ATTM. HENCE...WE
HAVE KEPT KLBB CONVECTION FREE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. AFTER
TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH WHETHER EITHER TERMINAL WILL
BE IMPACTED IS UNCLEAR. OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR
CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
3 PM ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME BISECTING THE CWA ONCE AGAIN FROM SW TO NE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKE
YESTERDAY IT IS SHIFTING WWD AS SUBSIDENCE DRYING WORKS IN FROM
CENTRAL TX. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
WRN PANHANDLES SSEWD INTO SE NM. FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IS THICKENING A CU FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND
WRN SPLNS. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT
LEAST ISOLD T-STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PROGS EXHIBIT QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE
IN THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST...SLOWLY TAPERING
DOWN TO THE EAST...FALLING BELOW MENTION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER WINDS. THUS WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION WE SAW YESTERDAY AS STORMS CONSOLIDATED
ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. STILL...LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN LATER THIS EVENING FOR THE MOST PART...BUT COULD LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER SO WE HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THAT AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

ON FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WRN AZ WILL TRACK
NEWD INTO THE 4-CORNERS AREA. OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING
OVER CENTRAL AND EAST TX. THE MID-LVL MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD STILL
BRUSH OUR WRN ZONES AND WITH DEEP-MIXING IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP NEAR THE STATE LINE...WE EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF LATE AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT. POSSIBLE SOUTH TO NORTH
TRAINING OF CELLS COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...BUT
THIS THREAT LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST OF THE STATE LINE. HIGHS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S WEST TO UPPER 90S EAST.

LONG TERM...
STARTING FRIDAY EVENING...A NARROW PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FOUND SCOOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
AS AN UPPER LOW /NOW IN THE DESERT SW/ LIFTS NORTHEAST IN THE FORM
OF A FILLING WAVE. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THIS WAVE WILL MISS OUR
NWRN ZONES...DECENT HEIGHT FALLS OF 20-30 METERS WILL EDGE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH PWATS OF NEARLY 1.5 INCHES TO
GARNER TSTORMS. SWLY STEERING WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
THAN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL
RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCALES OF THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SWRN PANHANDLE.

BY SATURDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHEAR APART
AND THIN OUT WITHIN 20-30 KNOTS OF SWLY FLOW FROM 700-500MB. THIS
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SOLID PRECIP CHANCES EVEN AS A WEAK IMPULSE
LIFTS NNE FROM CHIHUAHUA AND REACHES OUR WRN ZONES BY PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...PWATS OF 1.2 INCHES AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING
UNDER PERIODS OF THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO
AT LEAST A FEW TSTORMS ON THE CAPROCK. THIS THEME PLAYS OUT IN A
SIMILAR FASHION ON SUNDAY MINUS ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSE(S)...BUT
CONTINUED WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY LATE-DAY TSTORMS.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES THEN UNFOLD ON MONDAY AS A WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH /STILL OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/ REACHES
THE SOUTH PLAINS. ECM AND GFS LOOK A BIT TOO ZEALOUS WITH PRECIP
CHANCES MON EVNG THRU TUE EVNG IN THIS OTHERWISE LESS FAVORABLE
SETUP...SO POPS WERE LOWERED BELOW MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
BY WED/THU...A MODEST COLD FRONT IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR NOW
AS STUBBORN TROUGHING IN THE ROCKIES FINALLY MOBILIZES EASTWARD.
PATTERN RECOGNITION TENDS TO ARGUE AGAINST POPS THIS FAR OUT AS
THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED AND PASSING LARGELY TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...THE FRONT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF STEADY UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY PROVE EFFECTIVE IN PROVIDING US WITH OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. DISTANT NATURE OF THIS FRONT PRECLUDES ADDING PRECIP TO
THE GRIDS...BUT TEMPS WERE SCALED BACK A BIT AREA WIDE UNDER
LOWERING THICKNESSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  91  60  89  62 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         69  93  63  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  93  63  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     68  92  63  88  64 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  93  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  92  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  93  65  90  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     73  98  71  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  96  66  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     74  97  70  98  70 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23





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