Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 302348
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE THAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS STRONG INVERSION
SETS UP THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 KTS JUST OFF THE DECK
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT CLOSER
TO 18Z WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING BECOMES ESTABLISHED.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH OFF THE BAJA COAST WITH A
LARGE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD OVER WEST TEXAS. CLOUDS HAVE ENHANCED
FURTHER TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...PERHAPS
SOME TERRAIN AMPLIFICATION FACTORING IN WITH THE MOIST FLOW CROSSING
THE SIERRA MADRE AND SACRAMENTOS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS DENSER CLOUD
SHIELD HAS KEPT HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM
SOLUTIONS HAVE INSISTED THAT SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER ENOUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON THE CAPROCK FOR 2-3 DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING. WE
HAD CONSIDERED ISSUING AN RFD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ELEVATED FIRE POTENTIAL BUT GIVEN THE RECENT COOLER AND SLIGHTLY
MORE MOIST TRENDS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THIS PRODUCT HARNESSED FOR NOW.

LOW LEVEL FLOW LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY VEERED OVERNIGHT ON THE
CAPROCK...PERHAPS SOME BACKING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALLOWING RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS PROBABLY ELEVATING WELL INTO THE 50S. VERY MINOR RISK
STILL FOR LIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION FROM FOG MAINLY SOUTHEAST...
BUT WILL KEEP UNMENTIONED. UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH ON
TUESDAY JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. POCKETS OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT LOOK CAPABLE OF SPREADING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST ESTIMATE FOR SURFACE DRY-LINE LOCATION
WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...PLUS OR
MINUS. AND WE HAVE CENTERED BEST THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THIS COUNTRY. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE ENERGY POTENTIAL OF 2000
JOULES PER KILOGRAM OR GREATER MAINLY EASTERN BORDER AREA WHERE RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST. MINOR CHANGES FOR BULK
OF PRODUCTS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A DRYLINE WILL BE PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FA LATE TUE INTO WED
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT.
SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW INVERTED V SOUNDINGS KEEPING STORMS HIGH
BASED. SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
STRONG WINDS. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
SOLAR INSULATION IS LOST. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN OUR EASTERN ZONES
BY MID TO LATE DAY WED. AS OF NOW NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS
MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE
WARM...DRY...AND WINDY WHICH WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER DANGER.

A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
SWEEPS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPS OFF INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S FRI AND THE LOW TO MID 60S BY SAT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE SAT WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION AND HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. WHAT MAY HINDER
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN BE PUMPED BACK INTO THE REGION SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS OF NOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL
BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  82  46  84 /  10  10  10   0
TULIA         50  84  50  86 /   0  20  10   0
PLAINVIEW     51  84  50  86 /   0  20  10   0
LEVELLAND     50  84  50  86 /  10  20  10   0
LUBBOCK       53  86  52  88 /  10  20  20   0
DENVER CITY   52  83  51  84 /  10  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    52  84  51  85 /  10  20  20   0
CHILDRESS     55  87  57  88 /   0  30  20  10
SPUR          56  86  57  87 /   0  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     59  87  60  86 /   0  20  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26


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