Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FXUS61 KLWX 290135
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
935 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stationary along the Mason-Dixon line through
Friday morning. An area of low pressure will ride along this front
across the area tonight into Friday. The front will move offshore
during the weekend, then high pressure will build in by early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Showers/isolated thunderstorms will continue this evening as the large
amount of moisture which has been stored in the atmosphere is
being released. A weak line over WV should reach the Mid Atlantic
later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Once low emerges from coast, which should be sometime Friday
morning, there won`t be a lot of forcing for thunderstorms on
Friday. However the front will still be nearby with embedded vort
energy. Therefore its entirely possible that thunderstorms may
return Friday afternoon. Will maintain chance PoPs for the
afternoon and evening.

Another shortwave will track across the area Saturday afternoon
and evening. Anticipate that this afternoon`s scenario will repeat
on Saturday, although the airmass likely won`t be quite as
unstable. Current SPC outlook is for MRGL severe risk. Can forsee
more heavy rain issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quasi-stationary front remains near the area Sunday and will act as
a foci for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms in the
warm (U80s) and humid atmosphere (dewpoints in L70s).

Frontal boundary begins to sink southward as a "cold" front late
Sunday into Monday with weak high pressure beginning to build into
the area. This will act to keep temperatures near seasonable
averages through much of the week. Proximity of frontal boundary
just to our south keeps shower/storm chances in the forecast Monday
(especially in the southern part of the forecast area). By Tuesday,
front is forecast to move far enough south that shower/thunderstorm
chances will be limited through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There may be a second round of storms late this evening. Airports
may still have low ceilings (MVFR) if it does. Worse case
supports a continuation into the morning push Friday.

A lull in activity expected Fri afternoon and night before more
rain moves into the area Sat-Sat night.

Stalled frontal boundary across the area Sunday will lead to showers
and thunderstorms. Front sinks just south of the area Monday, though
showers/thunderstorms are still possible (mainly for southern
terminals). Front far enough south by Tuesday that shower/storm
chances should be limited.

&&

.MARINE...
A marine weather statement has been issued for the lower part of
the MD Chesapeake Bay and lower Tidal Potomac.

Winds strengthen late tonight and especially Friday as deepening low
pressure departs the area. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower Potomac for Friday.

Frontal boundary remains across the area Sunday, with thunderstorms
possible into Monday. Any storm could produce gusty winds over the
waters.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WOODY!
PREVIOUS...HTS/MSE



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