Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 201335
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TODAY AND PASS NORTHEAST BY
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE MID- ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN MONDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 13Z...LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE LIFTED AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED. EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AS A SFC RIDGE
FROM THE HIGH OFF NEW ENGLAND PERSISTS IN SPITE OF THE HIGH
PUSHING OUT TO SEA. LIGHT MIXING WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
AROUND 80F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT...BUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
WILL BE MEAGER. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORCING THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE PRETTY STRONG BY THE MODELS AND THAT
SHOULD IN TURN FORCE NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GUSTY OR PERHAPS SPOTTY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS WHERE ADDED TERRAIN FORCING COULD RESULT IN BRIEFLY
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THEY PUSH EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY DURING THE
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WEEK AHEAD SHOULD BE QUIET AND COOL...AS A LARGE AREA OF
HIPRES BLDS OVER THE ERN CONUS. MAY BE A LTL BIT BRZY MON DUE TO
CAA/H5 TROF AXIS DROPPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AFTER
THAT...UPR HGTS RISE BUT AREA WL REMAIN ON THE ERN THEN SRN SIDE
OF THE SFC RDG. CONSEQUENCES WL BE CNDN FLOW TO BE REPLACED BY
MARINE FLOW BY WED. CUD BE DEALING W/ A LTL MORE CLDCVR FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WK... SPCLY E OF I-95. MAXT LWR-MID 70S THRUT THE
PD. MIN-T 40S TO LWR/MID 50S...WITH OVNGT TEMPS MODERATING SLGTLY
DUE TO WATER TEMPS...WHICH ARE STILL IN THE LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH VFR CONDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

VFR MON-WED UNDER HIPRES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NW FLOW SHUD PROVIDE A GOOD MIXED PROFILE MON. MAY HV SOME SCA GUSTS
AT THAT TIME. BYD THAT...HIPRES WL BE BLDG ATOP MARINE AREA
RESULTING IN WNDS BECOMING LIGHTER. FLOW SHUD BE VEERING ELY BY WED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR CALVERT AND ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES TODAY.
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE AND
SENSITIVE LOCATIONS FROM SOLOMONS ISLAND TO ANNAPOLIS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS.

DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AS HIGH AS 1.5 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE MORE COUNTIES TO BE IN THE ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ014-
     018.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/CAS
NEAR TERM...BAJ/CAS
SHORT TERM...BAJ/CAS
LONG TERM...HTS
AVIATION...BAJ/CAS/HTS
MARINE...BAJ/CAS/HTS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJ







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