Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 310035
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
835 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THE WAKE. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO START THE WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CDFNT NEAR THE BLURDG ATTM...MARKED BY A DROP IN DEWPTS MORE THAN
TEMPS /MID 70S BALT-DC CRRDR VS MID-UPR 50S MRB-HGR-CBE AS OF 00Z/.
STILL A LTL BIT OF INSTBY IN ADVC OF FNT...AS NOTED BY RECURRING
SHRA/TSRA IN CENTRAL VA. HWVR...RECENT HRRR RUNS TAKE THIS ACTIVITY
ESEWD...WHICH MEANS IT/LL BE SE OF CWFA BY 02Z. HV MADE FCST DRY
FOR THE REST OF THE NGT.

SINCE DEWPTS WL BE SLOW TO DROP ACRS CENTRAL VA AND GRND WET FM
LATE DAY RAFL...HV ENTERTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA FOR THE
OVNGT HRS-- PRIMARILY FOUND IN SHELTERED VLYS. ELSW...THE SLOW
DROP IN DEWPTS...NOT TO MENTION A LGT /BLO 10 KT/ NWLY FLOW THRU
THE NGT...WL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. KEPT TEMPS CLOSE TO LAMP...
WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO CLIMO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRI...KEEPING THE AREA DRY THEN THRU FRI
NIGHT. PLENTY OF WARMING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DOWNSLOPING
FROM WLY FLOW ON FRI COULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S...TOUCHING
90 IN THE DC AND BALTIMORE METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOWER
DEW PTS...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS UNDER A BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGH AND ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BY SAT MORNING.
12 MODEL SUITE NOW SUGGESTING THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU
SOMETIME LATE SAT. HOWEVER...ANY UPPER LVL FORCING WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LOOKS TO STILL REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. WITH A
FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.0 INCHES...EXPECTING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A
WIND SHIFT. HAVE KEPT THE LOW END SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR JUST THE FAR
WEST AREAS IN CASE OF TERRAIN DRIVEN CONVECTION. ANYTHING THAT
DOES FORM WILL BE GONE BY SAT EVENING.

THE HIGH PUSHES EAST SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND
QUIET WX TO THE AREA. HIGHS HOVERING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESS DOMINATES CONDITIONS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATE MON
INTO TUE SWLY FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A CDFNT APPROACHES TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AND STALLS AROUND OUR AREA THROUGH THU... BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPS WILL NEAR
NORMAL SUN AND GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO HE LOW 90S FOR WED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TSTMS HV PUSHED E OF THE TERMINALS. VFR CONDS SHUD PREVAIL FOR THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS ALREADY NW AT MRB...AND SHUD VEER TO THE NW ELSW
BTWN 02-04Z AS A COLD FRONT MVS THRU. WNW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU
FRI.

VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF TSRA...WNDS WERE NOT REACHING SCA CRITERIA...SO HV
DROPPED ADVY FOR ALL WATERS. STORMS HV MOSTLY CLEARED THE WATERS
AS WELL...ALTHO RECENT RECURRENT ACTIVITY INVOF EZF SUGGESTS SCTD
SHRA/TSRA STILL PSBL LWR PTMC/MID BAY TIL MIDNGT OR SO.

SLY FLOW WL BECOME NWLY NEAR/AFTR MIDNGT. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
INCR IN WSPD BHD FNT TIL ABT DAWN...BUT BASED ON MDL SNDGS DO NOT
BELIEVE THESE WINDS WL EXCEED SCA CRITERIA. HV CAPPED WINDS AT 15
KT...MAINLY IN GUSTS.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF FRI...
THRU THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS/SEARS
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...IMR
AVIATION...HTS/SEARS/IMR
MARINE...HTS/IMR


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