Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 050932
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
232 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS IT MOVES AWAY,
SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND MODOC COUNTIES, AND PERHAPS OVER
THE CASCADES AT AND NORTH OF CRATER LAKE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY NOON, AND BY THAT POINT, ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CLOUDINESS GONE,
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT
STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD,
REACHING BELOW FREEZING WITHIN SEVERAL VALLEYS OF THE EAST SIDE.
HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING AND THE
FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT. SEE THE NPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS AND
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH MAY BRING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS TO THE
COAST NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THESE SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA, AND THE THERMAL TROUGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST TO OUR
SOUTH. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE TRACK OF ANY WAVES WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING THE AREA FREE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION-MAKING SYSTEMS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
STEADY CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY
MIDWEEK. MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S FOR MANY OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
AND MID 80S FOR THE EAST SIDE, BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SOUTHWEST
COAST, STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A CHETCO EFFECT,
PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THIS DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE NEXT LARGE
SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST, POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-BPN


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...EXPECT LINGERING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH CLEARING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS
WILL BRING PARTIAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ALSO AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. VALLEY LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR SOME MORNING MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. ALONG THE COAST EXPECT VFR WITH
ONLY LOCAL MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD.
/CC


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT SATURDAY 5 SEPTEMBER 2015...NORTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HOWEVER, A THERMAL
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND HEAVY, WIND DRIVEN SEAS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING, BUT MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK.
-WRIGHT


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ029>031.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ084-085.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

BPN/TRW/CC


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