Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 301101
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
401 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER UTAH THIS MORNING...AND UPPER
RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD AND BUILD WITH TIME...REACHING OUR
CWA AS A 595DM HIGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY AT NPWMFR FOR WEST SIDE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. DAILY RECORDS WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN...WITH
THURSDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE THE LAST ROUND OF RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED LATE LAST WEEK. IN
GENERAL...THIS HEAT EVENT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A ONCE IN 5 YEAR
EVENT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST JUNE ON RECORD FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH PREVIOUS RECORDS BEING DESTROYED BY 3-4
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MINIMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...OR SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.
TODAY WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MAINLY MODOC AND LAKE
COUNTIES DUE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSITING FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST...AND 850MB COMPUTED LI VALUES NEAR ZERO. TOMORROW THE
SHORTWAVE SWINGS FURTHER NORTH...AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CASCADES NORTH OF CRATER LAKE.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS RIGHT OVERHEAD...AND THIS WILL
KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONFINED TO CALIFORNIA AND LIMITED TO
SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BUT LITTLE TO NO
TRIGGER.

MODELS DIVERGE SOME FROM SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
EC REMAINING PLAIN HOT WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS GRADUAL COOLING BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BURN BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY...THEN CLEAR A BIT OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER
INLAND AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 300 AM PDT TUESDAY 30 JUNE 2015...A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR THE COAST TODAY...WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. ADVISORY
LEVEL NORTH WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. GALES AND VERY STEEP HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL DEVELOP IN THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO THIS
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL ONLY REACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE INNER WATERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
THE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT MONDAY 29 JUNE 2015...TODAY, A
MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNER MOUNTAINS
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING AND OFFSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL RANGES. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO
STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL BRING VERY HOT NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
BREAKING TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BEFORE A MODEST COOLING TREND
BEGINS WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY. IT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. /DW

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ023.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     ORZ024-026.

CA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     CAZ080-081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM
     PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 2 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

NSK/NSK/RES



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