Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 201550
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...A MORNING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY.
LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES ARE
BEGINNING TO THIN AND INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
HELP MIXING AND LIFT THE FOG AT BROOKINGS AS WELL. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SMOKE FROM FIRES
IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

THE 12Z GFS DATA HAS VERY RECENTLY ARRIVED AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
ITS EARLIER RUN AND WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN THE PROGRESSION OF
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF WEST SIDE MORNING STRATUS. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST OREGON.
THEREAFTER...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
OF FEATURES BUT ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
IN OUR AREA ON MONDAY THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A STABLE
AIR MASS INTO MID-WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 20/12Z TAF CYCLE...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE IMPACTING THE COAST NEAR BROOKINGS, AND NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO
AND INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL BE VFR EXCEPT FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO THICK SMOKE IN
THE LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRES. THE SMOKE PLUMES FROM THESE FIRES ARE EXTENDING
EASTWARD ACROSS SISKIYOU, MODOC AND THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF LAKE
COUNTY. MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT, BUT STILL EXPECTING AREAS OF IFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND
INTERIOR COOS COUNTY. /SPILDE


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 5 AM PDT WED 20 AUG 2014...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE WITH A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND WILL BRING MODERATE NORTH
WINDS AND STEEP SEAS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR AN
AREA OF NORTH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS OFFSHORE SOUTH OF CAPE
FERRELO. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO ALL OF COOS COUNTY AND
HAVE SPREAD INTO WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY. SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS NOW MOVED INTO OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
H850 TEMPERATURE DECREASING FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
INLAND WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME
CHANGE FOR THE RECENT STRING OF HOT TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL WASHINGTON STATE ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DRIER.

THE LATEST GFS RUN CONTINUES WITH A WARMING TREND RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OFFSHORE NUDGES TOWARD THE COAST. THIS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST
FOR GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS SW OREGON COASTAL MOUNTAINS. FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.

$$

DW/MAP





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