Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 260153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
853 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017


Trends this evening and overnight are a near match to last night.
The showers and clouds are clearing as the diurnal support
becomes neutral. Lows dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s.



Northwest winds are expected to gust to 25 knots Monday, so a
Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 am to 7 pm. Lighter
winds Tuesday will be followed by possible advisory conditions
again on Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017)


Showers have organized a bit better late this evening, but should
fall apart by 7-8 pm. Similar potential for wind gusts like
yesterday, but probably not as strong. The energy with yesterday`s
activity was much better. Won`t be surprised to see 35-45 mph
gusts as the showers move through. A rumble of thunder may be


The band of showers moving through the area will push east of
Wisconsin by 8 to 9 pm this evening. Gusty winds to 35 to 45 mph
may accompany any of the stronger VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF period

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 307 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017)


Tonight and Monday...Forecast confidence is high:

The main push of isolated to scattered showers will push through
late afternoon into early this evening. Will then see decreasing
clouds late evening and overnight.

A similar day is expected Monday once again. A shortwave will
bring a chance for mainly afternoon showers. The better moisture
and forcing will be across the northeast half of the forecast
area. Left a slight chance of thunder going given some marginal
instability. Should see clouds increase mid-morning into the
afternoon, especially in the northeast. Southwest areas may end up
with a fair amount of sunshine tomorrow. High temps will remain
well below normal values for late June. It will be breezy again
too, adding to the feel of cooler conditions.

Monday night through Thursday...Forecast confidence medium.

A shortwave trough will have exited the area by Mon eve with
showers mostly ended. High pressure will slide from IA to IL/IN
through the night. A continued cool airmass and light winds will
allow temps to fall into the upper 40s for early Tue AM. The high
pressure area will then move across the Ohio River Valley on Tue
with swly winds and warm advection over WI. Mo sunny skies are
expected with high temps in the middle 70s with an afternoon lake
breeze remaining close to the lake.

The warm advection will continue Tue nt-Wed with moisture
transport beginning Wed as a shortwave trough approaches and
passes through the area. It appears any appreciable CAPE will
build on the back side of the main precip. area on Wed-Wed eve.
Thus best chances for thunder will be late afternoon and eve but
possibly only isold or sct coverage. A weak fropa will slowly
occur Wed nt into Thu AM as low pressure moves from nrn WI through
the nrn Great Lakes. The front will stall across IA and IL for Thu
with seasonal temps and humidity on Thu.

LONG TERM...Friday through Sunday...Forecast confidence medium.

A wave of low pressure will track from the IA/MO border to far srn
Lake MI for Fri. Thus chances of tstorms, higher near the IL
border, for this period. A brief period of nwly winds and cooling
may occur behind this system for Sat followed by High pressure for


VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight and tomorrow,
though could see a few MVFR spots in the north briefly as clouds
return Monday.

Expect isolated to scattered showers by late this afternoon,
winding down early evening. Tomorrow will be similar, with more
diurnal showers and cumulus likely. Isolated thunder is also
possible this afternoon and again Monday afternoon.


Northwest winds are expected to gust to 25 knots Monday, so have
decided to issue a Small Craft Advisory from 9 am to 7 pm.
Lighter winds Tuesday will be followed by possible advisory
conditions again on Wednesday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LMZ643>646.



Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...DDV
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