Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 060812
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH

WE/LL BE IN A WARM BUT FAIRLY LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW TODAY...BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WE/RE
STILL SEEING SOME WARM ADVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING
AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS HAS KEPT THE MID
LEVEL CLOUDS A BIT MORE NUMEROUS...BUT THOSE SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE
WAA NEUTRALIZES.  STILL LOOKING AT TEMPS IN THE 80S MOST PLACES
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NEAR THE SHORE...SO SHOULD SEE THE
DIRECTION PEG ONSHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE. IT SHOULDN/T PENETRATE TOO
FAR INLAND HOWEVER. SO EXPECT A VERY NOTICEABLE THERMAL GRADIENT IN
A SHORT DISTANCE FROM THE BEACH TO JUST A MILE OR TWO INLAND.

A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE. BUT A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DROP IN
TONIGHT. ANY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF THE
CWA BY 12Z...LIKELY STILL HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SRN TIER BEFORE
EXITING SOUTH BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. TIMING...MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY ARE ALL UNFAVORABLE FOR ANYTHING IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT
TO STORMS.

.SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ILLINOIS BORDER BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS WILL BRING A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY BEFORE
NOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAYBE LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTH INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY...THOUGH STILL
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

IT SHOULD BE DRY SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
THOUGH THERE REMAIN TIMING DIFFERENCES...A CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO THEN BRING
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH KEPT SOME LOW POPS FOR NOW
PER MODELS PAINTING A LITTLE QPF AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS PROGGED TO RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRAWS NEAR.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ONSHORE WINDS MOST DAYS
WILL KEEP IT COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT KMKE/KENW TODAY MAY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID-DAY DUE TO A LAKE BREEZE...THOUGH SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 10KTS.  A COLD FRONT DROPS IN LATE
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING KMSN/KMKE/KUES BETWEEN ABOUT 09-12Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOTHING SEVERE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE CONDITIONS
APPROACH OR REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DDV



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