Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 290546
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
145 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
.AVIATION...Made a pretty significant change for the 06Z TAF package
to show prevailing MVFR CIGs BKN-OVC012-015 north and east of a line
from KLEE-KMCO-KVRB through 12Z-14Z per latest trends on GOES-16 fog
and 3.9UM IR channels. Will be watching for development or spread to
the south, along with potential lowering of CIGs into IFR range the
rest of tonight. But for now the 06Z TAFs don`t show this occurring.
.Prev Discussion... /issued 754 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017/
...Continued Warm & Dry...
Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic, with its western
flank building toward GA/SC, will maintain stout onshore/southeast
flow overnight. Another warm and humid night as dewpoints remain
a few degrees either side of 70F, with the warmest temps expected
along the barrier islands thanks to maritime flow.
Afternoon forecast package presents things well, so will make
minimal changes. Main forecast points for the overnight remain 1)
well above normal temperatures for late April 2) possibility of
dense smoke/mist combination near smoldering wildfires and 3)
continued dry conditions with mid/upper level ridging keeping the
local environment quite suppressed despite modest low-level
Early update this evening to remove today`s rip current headline
now that we are past sunset.
Elevated E/SE flow will slacken overnight. Cannot not rule out
some patchy low stratus around for an hour or two early Sat
morning, especially inland terminals. Otherwise, VFR Saturday
with breezy ESE-SE winds once again during the day.
Tonight...East-west oriented high pressure ridging moving north
of ECFL. SE winds 10-15 kts near shore and 16- 19 kts over the
Gulf Stream south of Sebastian Inlet where small craft should
exercise caution. Seas continue mainly 3-4 ft, but could approach
5 ft toward daybreak away from the coast where winds are stronger.
Sat...High pressure remains north of the local coastal waters. SERLY
winds around 15 kts near shore and 17-18 kts offshore with marginal
conds in terms of cautionary statements for small craft. Seas 3-4 ft
very near shore and building to 4-5 ft over the open Atlc.
This weekend...Deep SE flow continues areawide and should push
sufficient Atlc humidity across east central FL to keep min RH
values abv critical levels. Even so, the local Fire Danger will
remain High as a fresh transport breeze and aftn temps in the L-M90s
generate very good to excellent dispersion. The dry ground/vegetation
combined with the hot and breezy conditions, and increasing sun
angle will continue to add to the severe/near critical fire
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 72 85 73 86 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 71 92 71 90 / 0 0 10 10
MLB 76 85 73 87 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 73 86 73 87 / 0 10 10 10
LEE 73 94 72 91 / 0 0 10 10
SFB 72 91 71 90 / 0 0 10 10
ORL 73 91 71 90 / 0 0 10 10
FPR 73 86 74 87 / 10 10 10 10