Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230748 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR-HAZARDOUS BOATING/SURF CONDITIONS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LOW WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...STUBBORN LATE NIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEEP
MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FINALLY/QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. GENERALLY LIGHT NNE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY WILL WASH OUT
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA.

TODAY-TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE MID ATLC STATES TODAY AND EMERGE OFF OF THE COAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ACT TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RESIDUAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OF
1.50-1.70 INCHES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
20 PERCENT THREAT AREAWIDE FOR LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES WITH THE
DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW...THOUGH FEEL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
WILL BUMP UP INTERIOR COUNTIES TO LOW END THREAT (30 PERCENT).
AFTERNOON HEATING...LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO
THE INTERIOR BEFORE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN PENINSULA LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING.

EARLY MORNING NNE/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO ENE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH WIND SPEEDS FORECAST/INCREASING TO NEAR BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BACK TO LIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL POP (20 PERCENT)
TONIGHT ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L/M 80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...M/U 80S
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AND U80S/L90S FURTHER INTO THE
INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SEAWARD.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A MODERATE TO
FRESH ONSHORE BREEZE.  WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD START
OUT 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES...SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE GRADUAL UPSTREAM DRYING. SO
THE STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SIDE OF
THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOS POPS ARE 20 PERCENT
OR LESS AND WILL CONFINE THUNDER MENTION TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR...
WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

MON-SAT...BREEZY ONSHORE WIND FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE EARLY-MID
WEEK THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME AS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...SUBSIDENT/DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR THAT IS
UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK. SO EVEN THOUGH UPPER RIDGING WILL BE
WEAKENING MID-LATE WEEK...GENERALLY MAKING CONDITIONS MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION...THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND SURFACE-
700MB EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POINT TO THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCAL POPS LOOK 20-30 PERCENT AT BEST...SO
NO REAL/TRUE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON IS EVIDENT FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WHERE PCPN
OCCURRED THE PREVIOUS DAY/EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST TODAY WITH LOW END CHANCES FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ECSB. A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE INTERIOR...LIKELY W OF
KMCO. BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN PCPN FREE HOWEVER. EARLY
MORNING NNE WINDS WILL VEER NE/ENE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND
15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE MID ATLC COAST/WRN ATLC WATERS WELL NORTH OF ECFL WILL
PROMPT CURRENT NNE WINDS TO VEER TO NE/ENE THRU THE DAY AND PERHAPS
E/ESE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS NEAR
SHORE/15 KTS OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE TODAY...SPREADING FURTHER
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS THAT PUSHED
STRONGER WINDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE DELAYED THEM FOR
THIS PERIOD.

SEAS 1-3 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BUILDING TO 3-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY WITH POSSIBLE 5 FT SEAS LATER TONIGHT WELL OFFSHORE/CAPE
NORTHWARD.

SUN-WED...FORECAST MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 4 MB GRADIENT ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST WHICH TRANSLATES TO ABOUT A 15 KNOT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE GFS SHOWS A FEW PERIODS OF 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL BE POOR AND EXPECT THAT EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  73  85  74 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  89  73  90  73 /  30  10  20  10
MLB  85  77  85  77 /  20  20  20  20
VRB  86  75  87  75 /  20  20  20  20
LEE  89  73  90  74 /  30  10  20  10
SFB  89  72  88  73 /  30  10  20  10
ORL  88  73  89  73 /  30  10  20  10
FPR  86  74  86  75 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....LASCODY


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