Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 260243
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD...A RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER PATTERN IS OVERTOP CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THAT WILL
CHANGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TOWARDS SUNRISE. A BRIEF RETURN IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE...BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH.

WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TOMORROW MORNING AFTER FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. EXPECT LAKE WIND OR WIND ADVISORY TO BE HOISTED WHEN THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE IS RELEASED.

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER GRIDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHRA AND MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS TERMINALS BETWEEN 10Z
(KLEE) AND 15Z (KVRB/KFPR). DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BOTH LIFT AND BREAK UP CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING / EARLY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AROUND 9 - 14Z AS SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT
UNTIL MIXING CAN COMMENCE LATER IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BOATING CONDITIONS DETEORIATE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SPREAD SWD OVER
THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SPEEDS PICK UP WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WITH STRONG AND
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FREQUENTLY GUSTING TO GALE FORCE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING WELL INTO
TONIGHT. SEA BUILD RAPIDLY TO 6-8FT IN THE MORNING...AND 7-10FT BY
EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR THE 20-60NM
LEGS FROM 26/09Z (4AM MON MORNING) THROUGH 27/12Z (7AM TUE MORNING).

TUE-FRI...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT WITH PGRAD
REMAINING TIGHT AS SECONDARY BOUNDARY SWEEPS THROUGH THE ADJACENT
ATLC WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTH WED AND THEN
ONSHORE THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO FL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SIG
DIFFS WITH POTENTIAL END OF WEEK COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS PRODUCE VERY HIGH
DISPERSION INDICES MONDAY. MIN RH VALUES IN THE 50S DUE TO FRONTAL
PRECIP/COOL ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH LATE NIGHT EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S TUE-WED AFTERNOONS...GUSTY
WEST WINDS CONTINUING TUE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  65  41  62 /  50  40  10   0
MCO  51  66  43  63 /  50  40  10   0
MLB  48  69  44  64 /  40  40  10   0
VRB  48  71  45  65 /  30  40  10   0
LEE  49  61  43  62 /  50  30   0   0
SFB  51  67  44  63 /  50  40  10   0
ORL  52  65  45  63 /  50  40  10   0
FPR  46  72  46  64 /  20  40  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM 4 AM EST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY





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