Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 180758
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...
BAND OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER CNTRL FL IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK TROF
AXIS OVER S FL. RUC40 ANALYSIS SHOWS PWAT VALUES AOA 2.0" OVER THE S
PENINSULA...DECREASING TO 1.5"-1.6" OVER THE NRN PENINSULA...THEN
INCREASING TO ARND 1.8" OVER THE PANHANDLE DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING
IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
ALOFT...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM MID LVL VORTICITY OUTSIDE OF A
WEAK BAND IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT...UPR LVL CONVERGENCE THRU THE
H30-H20 LYR AS THE MID/UPR TROF HAS WORKS ITS WAY E OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C...H50 TEMPS ARND -6C...RESULTING IN
WEAK LAPSE RATES BTWN 4.5-5.0C/KM.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED PRECIP TODAY AS THE RELATIVELY STABLE
AIRMASS OVERHEAD LIMITS VERTICAL MOTION...WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITS
POTENTIAL FOR CU DVLPMNT. BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W ATLC WILL LIFT
NE...ALLOWING HI PRES TO BUILD DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD IN ITS WAKE. AS
IT DOES...LIGHT NWRLY WINDS THRU THE H100-H85 LYR WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E THRU SUNSET.

NW/NE FLOW REGIMES TYPICALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDER OVER CENTRAL FL. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PRECIP WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L70S AND H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES RUINING BTWN
70-80PCT. HOWEVER...THE DLVPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR COASTAL TSRA DVLPMNT. INTERIOR WILL HAVE A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY AS NEAR FULL SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS BY EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES
EXPECTED TO DROP TO ARND 1.6"...CHANCES WILL BE AOB 20PCT OVER MOST
OF THE AREA....WITH GO WITH 30 POPS ARND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DUE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILE. PRECIP SHOULD BURN OUT BY SUNSET
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

DVLPG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE
M/U80S...INTERIOR WARMING INTO THE L90S. MIN TEMPS HOLDING IN THE
L/M70S AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL
QUICKLY MODIFY WHATEVER LOW DEWPOINT AIR THAT MANAGES TO FILTER INTO
THE CWA.

FRI-SUN...
IN THE SHORT RANGE THE ECM HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS W/R/T THE
EVOLUTION OF THE RATHER TRANSIENT CUTOFF H50 LOW FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG/OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD AND THE NRN HALF OF FL
FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT. SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SE COUPLED WITH A SHEARED
OFF PIECE OF REMNANT MID LEVEL VORTICITY FROM FORMER EPAC HURCN
"ODILE" WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE THE FEATURE THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH THE
POS TILT FEATURE EJECTING OUT AND OPENING UP NE OF FL SAT NIGHT-SUN
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH. FORCED ASCENT WILL
YIELD PRES FALLS EAST OF FL...WITH BAROCLINIC SFC WAVE/LOW
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
LATE SAT NIGHT...BEFORE RACING OFF THE NE ON SUN.

HGTS FALLS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHCS FRI-SAT
(60-70) WITH THE BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MID LVL
TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVHD...AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING
BEHIND THE SFC LOW ON SUN. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS UP TO 40-50
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD HOLD
TEMPS DOWN BELOW CLIMO...PRIMARILY FRI-SAT.

MON-THU...
NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE OVER ECFL...WHILE
A DEEP LAYER ERN CONUS TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE SERN
CONUS. TYPICAL OF MANY EARLY FALL ATTEMPTS OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS TOWARD/INTO NORTH AND CTRL FL...THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY WILL
GET BRIDGED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH WITH STOUT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH A MORE DIFFUSE ECSB LEADING TO LESS TS
COVERAGE BY WED-THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON-TUE
WILL DROP BACK IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS: THRU 18/14Z...WRLY AOB 5KTS BCMG N/NE 5-10KTS AFT SUNRISE.
BTWN 18/14Z-18/18Z...BCMG E/NE 8-12KTS...CONTG THRU 19/00Z. AFT
19/00Z...BCMG E/SE AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 19/06Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...BRIEF IFR/LIFR
CIGS E OF KMLB-KOBE. BTWN 18/20Z-18/24Z SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS ALONG
AND N OF I-4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LVL TROF AXIS OVER JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WILL PUSH INTO S FL AND STALL AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LIFTS INTO THE NW ATLC. WEAK HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND THE MID ATLC STATES WILL NUDGE ITS WAY OFF THE ERN SEABOARD...
ALLOWING SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS OVER THE LCL ATLC TO VEER TO THE N/NE
BY MIDDAY...THEN TO THE E BY LATE AFTN...STEADY SPEEDS BTWN 8-12KTS.
LONG PD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL DAMPEN OVER THE LCL ATLC
THRU THE DAY...SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE
TODAY...THEN 2-3FT AREAWIDE TONIGHT. ISOLD SHRAS LIMITED TO THE GULF
STREAM.

FRI-MON...SLIGHT FRESHENING OF THE ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 4FT
WELL OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3FT WITH WINDS BELOW 15KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  74  83  71 /  20  10  60  40
MCO  91  73  87  69 /  20  20  60  50
MLB  87  75  84  73 /  20  10  70  50
VRB  86  73  85  73 /  20  10  70  50
LEE  91  74  88  68 /  20  20  60  40
SFB  91  74  86  70 /  20  20  60  40
ORL  91  74  86  69 /  20  20  60  50
FPR  87  73  86  73 /  30  10  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI
AVIATION...BRAGAW







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