Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 080846
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DRIVING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT...VEERING MORE
NORTHWEST AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SKIES WILL START OFF
SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN STRATOCU COMING OFF THE GULF WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY BY LATE DAY INTO TONIGHT. BOTH MOS GUIDANCE AND LATEST WRF/
HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANY ISO/SCT SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND INCREASE POPS TO 20-30
PERCENT INTO TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...
AMOUNTING TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL INTO THE 40S WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER TOWARD DAYBREAK
TUESDAY WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S.

TUE-THU...LARGE MID-UPPER VORTEX COVERING ERN NOAM WILL RETREAT (AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY)  BACK N-NEWD INTO ERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
THE SRN LOBE OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT SEWD FROM TX INTO
THE WRN GOMEX...AND THEN EWD TO FL BY THU. THIS WILL SPELL A COLD
AND DRY WX PATTERN FOR ECFL WITH PREVAILING NW TO WNW FLOW SLOWLY
WEAKENING BY LATE WEEK. MAXES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60F WITH L60S CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA. MINS WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE U30S FOR A LARGE PART OF THE CWA...WITH L-M40S ONCE AGAIN
CONFINED TO THE SERN CWA AND PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE BARRIER ISLANDS
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

FRI-SUN...NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SEWD AROUND THE ERN
ERN CANADIAN VORTEX...WHICH WILL ALLOW TO AMPLIFY AND ROTATE SEWD
ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND INTO THE WRN ATLC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL DRIVE A WEAK AND MAINLY DRY...REINFORCING FRONTAL BDRY SWD THRU
FL LATE SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD. THUS...
AFTER TEMPS SLOWLY START TO MODIFY TOWARD CLIMO NORMS BY SATURDAY...
EXPECT THEM TO DROP BACK TO BELOW NORMAL SAT NIGHT-SUN IN A QUICK
COOL SHOT BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING BKN-OVC INTO TONIGHT... BUT CIGS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT. MAY SEE TEMPO MVFR CONDS
WITH ISO-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS GENERALLY EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS TODAY...BECOMING
VERY HAZARDOUS INTO TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WATERS. W/NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...REACHING UP TO
25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 10-11 FEET OFFSHORE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS WITH A GALE WARNING NOW
GOING INTO EFFECT OFFSHORE STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

TUE-FRI...HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLC INTO MID-
LATE WEEK. NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS IN WNW-NW FLOW TUE WILL SLACKEN VERY
SLOWLY AS WINDS VEER MORE NRLY BY FRI. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER BY
THU NIGHT...THEN COLLAPSE FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE OUT OF THE WSW-SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
REINFORCING FRONT.

THE ONLY SMALL SAVING GRACE IN ALL THIS IS THAT THE STRONG MARINE
WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE RATHER THAN ONSHORE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST SEAS WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST. STILL...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS
OVER THE ENTIRE MAOR THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND THE OUTER WATERS INTO THU
MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING THE
MID 60S...AND WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA EXPECTING TO SEE
MIN RH VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID 30S. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING HIGH DISPERSION VALUES.
HOWEVER WITH ALL THE RAINFALL LATELY ERC VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW.

TUE-THU...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE WEEK.
MINIMUM RH VALUES REACH THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TUE AFTN...
AND THEN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS BOTH WED AND THU. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN UNUSUALLY HIGH SMOKE DISPERSION VALUES FOR
BOTH TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  43  58  36 /  10  30  10  10
MCO  65  45  59  41 /  10  30  10  10
MLB  65  44  61  42 /   0  20  10  10
VRB  65  45  63  44 /   0  20  10  10
LEE  66  44  58  40 /  10  30  10  10
SFB  66  43  59  38 /  10  30  10  10
ORL  65  44  59  42 /  10  30  10  10
FPR  66  48  63  44 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI


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