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000
FXUS62 KMLB 100103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH LIGHT WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTH/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE TUE MORNING. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN HUNG UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WILL RETAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING IN
GRIDS/ZONES FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE MILD AND IN THE 60S.

TUE...A RATHER STRONG UPPER JET WILL GIVE THE FRONT THE NECESSARY
INCENTIVE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO SOUTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING AND WEST-SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE DAY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. FURTHER SOUTHWARD WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WE MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BACK WINDS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 7-12 MPH.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AND THE AIRMASS WILL
NEED TIME TO MODIFY. FOR THIS REASON WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF POPS IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POPS
AROUND 10 PERCENT SOUTH OF HERE. ASIDE FROM THE JET ENERGY TO THE
NORTH MID LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK. FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

WED...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) LTST GUID SUGGEST THE APCHG FRONT WILL
STALL OVER SO CENTRAL FL AND ACT AS A POOL FOR LOW LVL MOISTURE
WHILE SUPPRESSING THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS SRN MOST FL.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEST BE ASCD WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND LOWER CHCS FOR POINTS NORTHWARD.
THIS SETUP COULD FAVOR MEASURABLE RAIN FOR A COUPLE FORECAST
PERIODS INVOF THE STALLED FEATURE...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG
OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LOW.

DEEPENING ONSHORE FLOW WED WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS BACK TO WITHIN 5F DEG
OF CLIMO AVG...STILL ABV AVG WITH READINGS IN THE M/U70S ALONG AND N
OF I-4... U70S/L80S SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS. LIGHT N/NE FLOW WED
NIGHT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M60S INTERIOR...M/U60S ALONG THE
COAST.

THU-FRI...
PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE
JET PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS BECOMES LARGELY ZONAL IN NATURE. THE POST
FRONTAL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS ON WED WILL BE REINFORCED BY A
POLAR RIDGE BY DAYBREAK THU. EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG ZONAL WIND
COMPONENT...THIS NEW RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BY
WEEK`S END WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC/LOW
LVL WINDS ACRS CENTRAL FL TO BACK TO THE N/NE AND FRESHEN ON
THU...KEEPING SEASONABLE MAX/MIN TEMPS IN PLACE. LINGERING PRECIP
INTO THU MRNG MNLY S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE COOLER AND
MORE STABLE AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE CWA.

SAT-SUN...
AS THE POLAR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
S/SE ON SAT...THEN TO THE W/SW SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM BACK ABV CLIMO AHEAD THRU MOST OF THE WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WRT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE WEEKEND: ECMWF HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED MID LVL SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND TAKES ITS PARENT LOW ACRS THE LWR MS VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK SAT...WHILE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED IN THE MID LVLS AND
CARRIES THE CORE OF ITS SYSTEM ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...ECMWF EXTENDED MOS HAS A WETTER AND COOLER SOLUTION
THAN GFS...POPS 15-20PCT POINTS HIGHER AND POST FRONTAL MAX TEMPS
ARND 10F COOLER. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AS THERE IS AMPLE
TIME FOR SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TO HAMMER OUT A BETTER CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...

OVERNIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOWEST
LAYER(S) WILL DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
WINDS AND WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TO BECOME LIGHT...LESS THAN
5 MPH...OR CALM AND TO 15 KNOTS ABOVE THE INVERSION AFTER 08Z. THIS
SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS AT OR BELOW FL010 RATHER THAN FOG.
BEST LOCATIONS FOR FOG WILL BE FROM ORMOND BEACH TO DAYTONA BEACH TO
LAKE KISSIMMEE AND WEST. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BE MVFR
VISIBILITY. VFR AFTER 10/14Z WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE FROM DAYTONA TO KISSIMMEE NORTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
APPROACHES NORTHERN AREAS DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.


PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BE TOO STRONG
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE
MORNING. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS WILL FALL TO BELOW 5 KTS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SLIDES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUE WITH WINDS VEERING TO SW. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OR
LESS OF PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODIFIES.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...THE NOAA BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS...WITH A 3 FOOT LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL..BETWEEN 20NM AND 42NM OFFSHORE. THE TWO
NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF THE BEACHES WERE RECORDING
3 FOOT SEAS WITH A 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL.

LATEST RUC13 RUN WAS INDICATING THAT THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS
AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME 5 TO 6 FOOT
SETS IN THE GULF STREAM FORT PIERCE INLET NORTH MAY PUT AN EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM BUT SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS OUTSIDE
OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FIRM IN
PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. SSE/S WIND FLOW WILL
VEER MORE SSW BY DAYBREAK TUE MORNING. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PUSH
SEAS 3-4 FT VERY NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WILL NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS.

TUE...THE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL
RESPOND BY VEERING SSW/SW DURING THE DAY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BACK
WINDS TO ESE. WIND SPEEDS BELOW 15 KTS AND ARE FORECAST TO FALL
BELOW 10 KTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5
FT OFFSHORE.

WED-WED NIGHT...(PREVIOUS) GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE AS THE
SFC RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLC BY A POLAR RIDGE THAT WILL PUSH OUT OF
THE PAC NW THRU MIDWEEK. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE N AFT DAYBREAK TO
20-25KTS AND VEER TO THE THRU SUNSET NE THU NIGHT AS THE POLAR RIDGE
MOVES ACRS THE APPALACHIAN AND APPROACHES THE MID ATLC COAST. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7FT BY AFTN...6-8FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...FRESH TO STRONG NE BREEZE WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE
POLAR RIDGE PUSHES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAKENS OVER THE W
ATLC...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH. WINDS DECREASING TO
ARND 20KTS THRU THE DAY...THEN TO 15-20KTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS 6-8FT
NEARSHORE AND 8-10FT OFFSHORE THRU THE DAY...DECREASING TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...KELLY