Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 310811
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Moderate Rip Current Threat at Area Beaches Today...
...Scattered Storms, With a Few Becoming Strong Once Again...
...Potential for the Weather to Become Quite Wet Early Next Week...

Current...Last night`s convective activity has wound down as
associated cloud debris also begin to thin through the remainder of
early this morning. NEXRAD 88D still shows isolated shower/storm
activity over the Gulf Stream. The 915MHZ Cape profiler winds are
fairly light/variable from near the surface up through 10.0Kft.
Temperatures were mainly in the U60s to M70s with dewpoint values in
the 60s and L70s making for another sultry early morning. A very
weak pressure gradient remains in place with winds either L/V or
calm.

Today-Tonight...Continued weak ridging across the area will provide
for a light wind regime with L/V winds becoming onshore along the
east coast and slowly spreading inland as the ECSB ventures westward
this afternoon. Winds will become light to calm again in the
evening.

Weak mid-upper troughing that has been over the area these past few
days is forecast to finally make a small/slow shift to the east.
Still, with adequate deep layer moisture and afternoon instability
through surface heating, we will still see mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms ignite along the ECSB and various other late day
boundaries further into the interior. Will stick CHC pops (30-40pct
coast and 40-50pct interior). Greatest chances along the east coast
will be early in the afternoon. Coverage will again increase later
in the afternoon and early evening through various boundary
interactions into the interior. 500 mb temperatures remain around -
9C. A few strong storms can be expected and perhaps an isolated
severe storm or two will be possible where the strongest boundary
interactions occur late today.

Storm motion will be slow and erratic again with locally heavy rain
accumulating one to two inches in a short period of time. This will
cause temporary flooding of some roads and low-lying areas,
especially where recent heavy rainfall has fallen. Convection and
cloud debris will dissipate/thin through late evening/overnight.
Highs in the U80s along the coast and L90s inland. Lows in the
U60s/L70s.

The threat continues for an enhanced threat for strong rip currents
at local beaches. The greatest threat for rip currents will be near
mid morning into early afternoon and again this evening. Always swim
near a lifeguard and never swim alone.

The philosophy for the local forecast in both the medium/extended
ranges remains basically unchanged through day 6, with significant
attention turning toward the tropics toward the end of the period.

Wed-Fri...weak residual troughing over FL and the adjacent Atlantic
fills and ejects eastward as a mid to upper level low moves east
from the Sonoran Desert into Texas, where it will slow and stall.
One change of note is that all the operational models show this
feature to be stronger than indicated 24 hours ago, which results in
a more amplified mid to upper ridge over Florida. At the surface,
the western extension of the Bermuda ridge will essentially sit in
place over the central peninsula. This keeps diurnal shower/storm
chances across the north at 20 coastal/30 inland, and 40 coastal/
50 inland for the southern CWA, where slightly deeper mean moisture
resides, and activity enhanced by sea/lake breeze interactions.
Temps look to be near normal along the coast, and near to perhaps
1-2F above for the interior.

Sat-Mon...Mid/upper low over Texas will open up into a positive tilt
trough and remain quasi-stationary from this weekend into early next
week. Amplifying troughiness over the northeastern CONUS will flatten
the ridge over Florida, resulting in the flow aloft becoming SW-WSW.
The low level flow will also veer to south and southwesterly by
Sunday-Monday as a late season front presses toward the SE CONUS.

There remains an unusually good agreement among the suite of global
models with respect to a surface low of tropical origin (~1006MB)
ejecting N-NE out of the western Caribbean and toward Florida next
Monday into Tuesday. However, when it comes to the tropics in the
extended range the caveat of "Precision does not imply accuracy"
always applies, and even if such a system was to develop over the
western Caribbean, a gauntlet of strong upper level W-SW winds/shear
would appear to await the system if something were to reach 25N.

Whatever the case turns out to be, the pattern does imply what is
very likely to be a pretty significant increase in mean PWAT and
resultant rain chances early next week. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR into the afternoon until SCT shra/ts develop
again along sea breezes and various other boundary interactions.
Highest coverage expected into the interior later this afternoon/
evening. Tempo MVFR cigs/vsbys in shra/tsra. Any lingering showers/
storms will dissipate before midnight with cloud debris thinning
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Today-Tonight...Continued weak ridging across the area
will provide for light offshore morning flow to become onshore near
the coast in the afternoon. Wind speeds remaining mainly 6-12 kts.

The primary wave component will be from an 8-9 second swell (2-3
feet). The ECSB will provide a focus for early afternoon shower/
storm development across coastal sections with slow/erratic storm
motion. Boaters on inland lakes will experience the greatest
coverage and strongest storms again, so plan to head back to shore
before storms approach in the afternoon/early evening. Seas near 2
ft near shore and 3 ft over the open Atlc, and perhaps up to 4 ft
well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet.

Wed-Sat...Favorable boating conditions are expected. Surface ridge
axis over central Florida coupled with a ridge also building aloft
will keep winds and seas AOB 10KT/3FT with storm coverage generally
low through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  70  90  72 /  30  20  30  20
MCO  92  71  91  72 /  40  30  40  20
MLB  88  71  87  74 /  40  10  20  20
VRB  88  70  88  72 /  30  10  20  20
LEE  93  73  92  73 /  40  30  40  20
SFB  92  71  92  73 /  40  30  40  20
ORL  92  72  92  73 /  40  30  40  20
FPR  88  69  87  72 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Sedlock
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi



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