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000
FXUS62 KMLB 251900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE GOT AN EARLY START THIS MORNING AND IS NOW
STARTING TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE LINE PUSHES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THE CURRENT STORMS AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD MERGE TO
CREATE A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA....CENTERED ON THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN BETWEEN 4
AND 7 PM. WILL WATCH FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40 TO 45 MPH IN A FEW OF THE STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
MELBOURNE NORTH SHOULD PUSH THE STORMS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST THIS
EVENING. MARINERS ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC
FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NORTH SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE WESTERN SKY
FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...THOUGH...LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM GOING THROUGH 10
PM. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S MOST LOCALES.

SAT-MON...RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND GETS A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE TREASURE COAST ON SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT
SOME DRIER AIR BACKING AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE AND APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. ATMOSPHERIC REMAINS MOISTURE RICH OVER
OUR AREA WITH PWATS REMAINING BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES ACCORDING TO
THE GFS...SO...SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SIMILAR TO TODAY IS
STILL EXPECTED. DRIER AIR SHOULD ENCROACH ON THE AREA BY
SUNDAY...SO COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING
30 TO 40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON MONDAY.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUE-THU...SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS FROM GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY
WITH TROUGH AXIS DIGGING WELL SOUTH INTO FLORIDA THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN DEEP MOISTURE
TO THE REGION...WITH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF TROUGH AXIS REACHING
NORTHERN PENINSULA TUE AND POSSIBLY WORKING INTO CWA WED/THU. POPS
WILL RESPOND TO AT/ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. MAX TEMPS REMAIN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING AND
HOLDING OFF ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KMLB NORTH. WINDS WILL PICK UP MID MORNING AT
ALL SITES WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. AS T.S. ARTHUR MOVES UP THE COAST
EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY BACK FROM MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO
WESTERLY AND EVEN SOUTHWESTERLY. +SHRA AND +TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSSIBLE FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THEIR ONSHORE COMPONENT THIS
AFTERNOON TO A MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT...REMAINING AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.

SAT-TUE...S/SW WIND BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME
SW-W 10-15 KT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEA BREEZE SHOULD TRANSITION
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION EACH AFTERNOON...WITH AN
EARLIER ONSET EXPECTED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  76  92 /  30  40  30  30
MCO  75  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  30
MLB  75  90  76  91 /  30  40  30  30
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  77  94  77  94 /  20  40  20  30
SFB  76  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  30
ORL  77  93  78  94 /  20  40  20  30
FPR  73  90  74  89 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....MOSES