Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 201936
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Saturday...Onshore flow will continue overnight and into
Sat with spotty showers affecting mainly the Space/Treasure
Coasts. Breezy conditions along the beaches and barrier islands
will continue into evening with winds decreasing with nightfall
inland. Expect lows to be a little cooler than previous nights in
the U60s to L70s. Highs Sat in M80s with partly sunny skies.

Modified prev disc...
Sunday-Monday...Nearly stationary H50 high center over Florida
Sunday will drift over the Wrn Atlc allowing for H5 trough to digs
SE into the lower MS Valley by mid day Monday and across the SE
CONUS by Monday night. Strong mid to upper level forced ascent
will allow a surface low to develop along the central Gulf coast
by Sunday night, then lift NNE rapidly through the TN/OH Valleys
Monday and into the lower great Lakes Monday night. The low will
drag the first significant cold front of the season toward central
Florida, which will be preceded by a pre-frontal trough, and
likely a broken band of showers and storms on Monday night.

low level flow will veer to southeast Sunday-Sunday night, then
southerly through Monday night ahead of the pre-frontal trough.
Area PoP will increase well into the Sct range Sunday. Southerly
flow with scattered showers and a few storms on Monday, with
coverage increasing late Monday night with the approach of the
pre-frontal trough. Max temps in the M-U80s each day, with mins
generally in the L-M70s (highest along the coast).

Tuesday-Friday..Aforementioned mid level short wave trough dampens
out rapidly as it lifts NE, courtesy of a deep, longer wave trough
which amplifies across the eastern CONUS Wednesday-Thursday, while
becoming negatively tilted. The prefrontal trough and trailing cold
front move through the area Tuesday, which model guidance showing a
reinforcing trough pushing through ECFL late Tuesday night-early
Wednesday morning. Behind these boundaries, strong high pressure
will build form the southern plains into the Gulf of Mexico and then
Florida From Wednesday though  sunset Thursday. Modest return flow
develops beginning Thursday night.

Both the mid/upper lift looks pretty respectable, and H85 LLJ (35-
45KT) look pretty respectable across north Florida from Late Monday
night into early Tuesday. Thus, there seems to be at least some
potential for stronger storms from around the I-4 corridor north
during that time frame, before the stronger deep layer wind fields
lift out rapidly during the day. Something to keep an eye on.

Temps near climo norms of L80s/L-M60s through Tuesday night. On
Wednesday-Thursday, 70s for highs and mainly 50s for mins, then
rebounding nicely closer to climo for next Friday.&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Winds and seas remain near advisory criteria, especially
over the Gulf Stream and southern waters. It is expected the
northern segments will see improvement to allow for lowering of
advisory incrementally on Saturday. Seas will remain choppy
however due to opposing winds and lingering swell with highest
seas near the Gulf Stream.

Into the weekend...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue
with winds/seas running near 17-21KT/5-7FT Saturday, then
decreasing to around 14-18KT/4-6FT Sunday. SCA will continue over
the central and southern waters during Saturday, with cautionary
conditions likely offshore on Sunday. Scattered showers, with a
few storms possible late Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday...Winds will veer to SE-S by late Monday ahead of
an approaching strong cold front, which will reach the northern
waters Tuesday and push south of Jupiter Inlet by late Tuesday
evening. Expect increasing coverage of showers and a few storms
Monday, with the front likely preceded by a more organized band of
storms. Wind speeds 13-18KT Monday, dropping off some to 12-15KT
Tuesday as they veer offshore. Seas 4FT near shore/6FT offshore
Monday, subsiding a bit to 3-4FT nearshore/5-6FT offshore by
Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The middle and upper Saint Johns River basins remain in flood.
A brief respite in notable rain will help allow steady state or
slight decline in river levels during the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  84  70  87 /  10  20  30  50
MCO  69  87  70  89 /  10  10  20  50
MLB  73  86  75  87 /  20  20  30  50
VRB  73  85  75  87 /  20  20  30  50
LEE  68  87  69  89 /   0  10  10  50
SFB  69  87  70  88 /  10  20  20  50
ORL  70  87  71  89 /  10  10  20  50
FPR  73  84  75  87 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
     20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-
     60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Kelly



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