Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 261405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
10 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

A few more clouds across central FL this morning that has slowed
heating, but most have dissipated in last hour. Morning soundings
show somewhat cooler air has moved into place as upper trough to the
north has inched just a bit closer. H5 temps running now about -7C
at both XMR and TBW, still there is a bit of a capping inversion
around 650mb that convection will have to overcome. PWAT values now
1.8-1.9 inches across central FL. GOES PW depiction refines the
gradient that exists through area with the near 2 inch values
restricted to an area from north of MLB and ISM, and values trailing
to around 1.5 inch along the Treasure coast.

These observations indicate current forecast on track with best
storm coverage over the north and interior due to boundary
interactions. Both recent HRRR and local ARW-WRF are also consistent
with this scenario of storm concentration greatest with breeze
boundary collision along the I 4 corrider. This is similar to what
happened yesterday but expect somewhat higher coverage due to cooler
temps aloft. Steering flow is still weak, but shows a little more
potential for activity to work back towards the coast north of the
Cape. Temp forecast on track.


Previous... Generally VFR through the forecast period outside of
brief reductions due to afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.
Greatest coverage of SHRA/TSRA anticipated from KMLB to the north
and west with lower chances along the Treasure Coast terminals (KVRB-
KSUA). Have introduced tempo groups where chances are highest; users
should monitor for timing adjustments as we monitor trends in
convective development through the day. Activity should gradually
diminish between sunset and midnight. Winds generally 10 knots or
less outside of gusty winds due to thunderstorm activity.




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