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000
FXUS62 KMLB 200743
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ASCD WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRES
CENTER OFFSHORE THE SERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO COVER MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY WIND SHIFT LINE CAN BE SEEN JUST TO
THE NORTH OF KBKV-KSFB-KTTS DELINEATING NRLY FLOW FROM NW/W WINDS
TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM...IN THE L60S AREAWIDE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP
TODAY AND WHAT EFFECT IF ANY THIS MIGHT HAVE ON TEMPS. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF BREAKS NEAR THE COAST...FORECAST SHOWS ONLY
A SLOW DECREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
STAYS CYCLONIC WITH MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUNG OUT OVER THE STATE.
FLOW DOES FLATTENS OUT A LITTLE AFTER 00Z...WHILE SFC-H85 FLOW LOOKS
LIKE FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST...SO THINKING IS A LITTLE MORE
CLEARING WILL OCCUR TONIGHT...PERHAPS MORESO THAN SHOWN BY THE
LATEST SKY COVER GRIDS.

SHAVED A DEGREE OR TWO FROM MOS MAX TEMPS TODAY...OWING TO THE
CLOUD COVER - MAINLY U70S...WITH M70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON... PARTICULARLY IN COASTAL
VOLUSIA. MINS IN THE U50S TO L60S WEST OF I-95...BUT WITH WINDS
VEERING A TAD TO N TO NNE OVERNIGHT...IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS FROM
BREVARD SWD MAY NOT DROP BELOW THE MIDDLE TO EVEN U60S ALONG THE
BARRIER ISLANDS. WILL SHOW THIS TEMP SPREAD IN THE ZFP.

MON-TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS TIME AND
FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL QUICKLY GET SQUEEZED OUT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST U.S. COAST BY LATE ON TUE. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL LIE ALONG THE GULF COAST/FL-GA BORDER BY SUNRISE WED MORNING.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LIGHTER
WINDS. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE WITH POPS 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. GRADUAL BUMP UPWARDS IN HIGHS/LOWS EACH DAY AS THE AIRMASS
SLOWLY MODERATES.

WED-SAT...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE ARE FORECAST
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP CURRENT
GRIDDED POPS IN THE 10-14 PERCENT RANGE. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MAY GET ADDED DOWN THE LINE BUT CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REMAIN MEAGER WITH QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INFLUENCE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...ALSO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...LOOKING AT A COMPARISON OF THE 3.9UM SHORT WAVE AND
(11-3.9)UM LOW CLOUD IR CHANNELS COUPLED WITH SURFACE METARS LOW
BASED SC AROUND BKN025-035 APPEARS TO BE THE PREDOMINANT LOW CLOUD
TYPE SOUTH OF A KTPA-KLAL-KGIF-KMLB LINE...WITH MAINLY ST/STFRA
~OVC-BKN006-015 TO THE NORTH. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN THIS
GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH PREDOMINANTLY MVFR TO VFR
BKN025-035 MUCH OF TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS/SEAS ON TAP AS PGRAD TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SERN CONUS SFC LOW AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD. STRONGER N-NNW WINDS LURKING NOT TOO FAR TO NORTH AS SHOWN
BY DATA FROM SAUF1 (N@25P27KT) AND 41010KT (NW@17P22KT). THE SCA WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD 20-60NM LEGS AT 4AM...AND EXTEND
TO ALL BUT THE SEB-JUP 0-20 LEG BY 10AM. A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT WILL
BE IN PLACE IN THE INTERIM WHERE IT DOESN`T START AT 4.

SUN-WED...WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SUBSIDE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE
OVER THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
REMAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT BOATING CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY FAVORABLE
LATER ON TUE PAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  60  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  78  60  79  59 /  10  10  10   0
MLB  76  64  77  60 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  77  66  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  78  59  80  59 /  10  10  10   0
SFB  78  61  79  58 /  10  10  10   0
ORL  78  62  80  60 /  10  10  10   0
FPR  78  66  78  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK