


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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861 FXUS62 KMLB 151049 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 649 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - An area of low pressure and associated deep moisture moves over central Florida today and into tonight. Above-normal lightning storm chances and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary impacts. - Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 80% through midweek as the disturbance continues to pull deep moisture over the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Today... IR satellite imagery shows a weak area of low pressure offshore the central Florida Atlantic coast gradually becoming better defined. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor this feature, now highlighting a 40% chance for tropical depression to form over the next two days. Regardless of tropical of development, the low is expected to move westward across the Florida peninsula today and tonight, before reaching the northeast Gulf into Wednesday. Southwest of the low`s center, a band of disorganized showers and isolated storms is observed. This activity is expected to slowly approach the area early this morning, reaching portions of the east central Florida coastline before sunrise. Subsequent shower and storm development is expected to move across the local area through the day as the low passes central Florida. While everywhere will not see continuous rain all day, forecast trends expect widespread coverage of showers and storms (~80-90%) with some areas seeing multiple rounds. HREF mean QPF generally suggests widespread amounts near or less than 1", but localized totals up to 4.5" will be possible across the eastern side of the peninsula. Low lying and poor drainage areas which receive these localized higher totals will be vulnerable to ponding of water and minor flooding. In addition to a localized flood threat, RAP model analysis indicates enough instability (CAPE ~ 2,000 J/kg) to promote an isolated lightning storm threat. Stronger storms which develop will be capable of water loaded down drafts producing wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Temperatures are expected to be highly influenced by cloud cover and increased rain chances with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A tropical airmass will keep conditions muggy with max temperatures ranging the mid 90s to low 100s. Wednesday-Thursday... The area of low pressure emerges into the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. As the low departs, the ridge axis of the Atlantic high extends westward across central Florida, establishing southerly flow. Tropical moisture remains in place on Wednesday, becoming reinforced by a secondary wave of moisture off the Bahamas on Thursday. Continued deep moisture and lingering waves of vorticity aloft will keep a wet pattern in place each day with peak rain chances between 70-80 percent. Decreasing cloud cover on Wednesday should increase surface instability, fueling an isolated storm threat. Stronger storms which develop Wednesday will be capable of frequent lightning strikes, wind gust of 45-50 mph, and torrential downpours. Cloud cover looks to rebuild on Thursday, at least across the south, and storm hazards remain a tad more uncertain. Temperatures return closer to normal through the period with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the low to mid 70s Wednesday morning trend a few degrees warmer into Thursday morning. Friday-Monday... Broad mid level ridging slides over Florida late week and through the weekend. At the surface, the western flank of the Atlantic high extends across central Florida and into the Gulf. A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms returns, guided by the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Low pressure across the local Atlantic waters this morning will move onshore and across the Florida peninsula today. Variable winds are expected in vicinity of the low before becoming southerly as the low pushes onshore. Southerly flow becomes further reinforced into mid week as high pressure builds across the waters, and small craft should exercise caution tonight and into Wednesday as winds increase to 15-20 kts. Seas build to 2-3 ft. High coverage of showers and storms (70-90%) is forecast to continue through Thursday with a more summerlike pattern returning late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 649 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Unsettled conditions continue with an area of low pressure just off of the east FL coast. This feature is forecast to reach the coast by late morning/early afternoon and continue a slow westward motion across the peninsula during the day and evening. One of the biggest challenges early remains the forecasted prevailing IFR CIGs (local LIFR) for some TAF sites, mainly near KMLB northward. With deep moisture in place expect a higher than normal showery threat with embedded lighting storms as well. CAMs continue to struggle with placement, timing and coverage of activity. Will handle in TAFs with "Vicinity" wording, TEMPO groups as necessary, and prevailing when possible esp along the coast early this morning, with activity spreading further inland during daylight hours and increasing in coverage with limited heating. With uncertainty regarding the low`s track, directional wind component remains tricky, though wind speeds typically below 15 kts. Expect MVFR CIGs/VSBYs invof convection. Primary heavy shower or storm impacts include locally gusty winds, torrential downpours, and lightning strikes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 74 90 76 / 90 30 80 10 MCO 88 74 91 76 / 90 40 80 20 MLB 87 76 89 78 / 90 40 80 20 VRB 88 72 90 75 / 90 40 80 20 LEE 86 74 90 76 / 90 40 80 20 SFB 87 75 91 76 / 90 30 80 10 ORL 88 75 91 76 / 90 40 80 20 FPR 87 73 89 75 / 90 40 80 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Law AVIATION...Sedlock