Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
FXUS64 KMOB 250549
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1149 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
06Z issuance...IFR to LIFR cigs and patchy MVFR to IFR visibility
reductions due to fog will continue to impact the region for the
next few hours ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated to
scattered SHRA may develop along and ahead of the front. The front
is expected move across locations west/northwest of I-65 roughly
between 25.07-10Z, then over the remainder of the area generally
between 25.10-13Z. VFR will return following frontal passage.
Northwest to north winds increase to 10-15 knots with a few gusts
over 20 knots through Saturday afternoon. /21
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1042 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.
MARINE UPDATE...Offshore flow will strengthen over the marine
area late tonight and early Saturday morning following the passage
of a cold front. Wind speeds of 20-25 knots are looking more
likely generally between 3 A.M. and noon across the coastal waters
out 60 NM including the Mississippi Sound and Lower Mobile Bay.
We have issued a Small Craft Advisory for this portion of the
marine area during this time frame. /21
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1000 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.
UPDATE...Surface analysis shows a cold front moving across
northwestern and western portions of MS and central LA this
evening, while a weak surface ridge of high pressure stretches
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A warm and moist southerly low
level flow persists across our forecast area well in advance of
the front this evening. Area surface observations indicate that
patchy fog is beginning to develop over portions of the northwest
FL Panhandle as of 9 PM.
The overnight forecast generally remains on track. We expect
patchy fog to continue to develop around the region prior to the
arrival of the cold front late tonight. Guidance indicates that
the most favored location for patchy dense fog development will
be across portions of south central AL and the northwest FL
Panhandle, but overall coverage and duration currently looks to be
isolated/brief enough to preclude issuance of a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will continue to monitor observational trends. A
narrow zone of lift along the approaching front will aid in the
development of isolated to scattered showers along the front as it
passes from northwest to southeast over the region after
midnight. There may even be enough instability for isolated
thunderstorms over far northwestern portions of the CWA. Made
minor adjustments to overnight POPs based on the latest expected
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 603 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017/
DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
00Z issuance...VFR conditions start off this forecast period at
25.00Z, but expect cigs and visibility to gradually reduce to MVFR
to IFR levels this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Confidence in LIFR or lower visibility thresholds being met is
lower tonight, but cannot be completely ruled out at KMOB/KBFM/KPNS
prior to frontal passage. The front is expected to move from
northwest to southeast across the region generally between
25.09-13Z. A return to VFR conditions with increasing northwest to
north winds is expected following passage of the front. /21
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday for GMZ631-
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