Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 231125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
625 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12Z issuance...Ongoing showers and thunderstorms along the coast
and offshore will gradually increase in coverage and intensity
throughout the morning before spreading inland during the
afternoon and evening hours. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally lower
cigs/vis. Outside of convection, VFR conditions and light southwest
winds prevail. Some patchy MVFR fog will be possible during late
night and early morning hours, especially in places that see
afternoon rainfall and can avoid shower activity overnight. /49


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Little changes through the
near term period as the local forecast area remains sandwiched
between weak mid/upper level lows over the western Gulf and western
Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure over the central and
northern Gulf is reinforced, with winds increasing slightly and
shifting to more westerly as a result. With the upper disturbances
serving to locally enhance lift (as is evident with the ongoing
offshore and coastal showers), expect scattered showers and storms
to once again develop over the area throughout the day Sunday.
Current offshore convection will continue through the early morning
hours, impacting primarily coastal counties before increasing in
coverage and intensity and moving inland this afternoon. Frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall will remain the primary
threats, though a few overachieving storms could be capable of
producing gusty downburst winds of up to ~40 mph given the progged
magnitude of available instability. Activity then wanes over inland
areas after sunset, with showers and storms lingering offshore and
along the coast overnight tonight.

High temps continue to run in the low 90`s inland and upper 80`s
along the immediate coast, with the only chance for relief coming
from a passing afternoon thunderstorm. Heat indices will once again
reach the 100 to 105 degree range for much of the area, especially
inland. Lows tonight remain muggy and in the mid 70`s inland to
upper 70`s along the coast. /49

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...An upper trof over
the interior eastern states moves off into the western Atlantic
through Tuesday, while a series of shortwaves moving across the
region phase to form a weak upper trof over the extreme southeast
states. A surface low passes well off to the northeast and brings
a weak surface trof into the interior Gulf coast states Tuesday
morning, which progresses southward to near the coast by late
Tuesday night. Deep layer moisture increases somewhat, from
precipitable water values near 2.0 inches (125% of normal) Monday
morning to 2.0-2.25 (125-140% of normal) inches by Monday
afternoon, with similar values persisting through Tuesday. Expect
scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop each day in
this environment, with the better coverage mainly over the
interior portion of the forecast area where the most favorable
effects from passing shortwaves and later the weak surface trof
will enhance convective development. Some storms may be strong,
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning. Locally heavy rains
will be possible as well, due to a weak steering flow combined
with above normal deep layer moisture. Highs will be in the lower
90s on Monday, then near 90 on Tuesday. Lows will be in the lower
to mid 70s, except for upper 70s at the immediate coast. /29

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The weak upper trof over
the extreme southeast states is absorbed into a larger scale upper
trof which evolves over the eastern states through the period. A
weak surface trof is expected to be located mainly over the
coastal waters Wednesday into Thursday, except returning inland
with daytime heating each afternoon. A surface low well off to the
northeast, associated with the evolving eastern states upper trof,
brings another surface trof into the Gulf coast states on
Saturday. Expect scattered showers and storms to develop each day,
with the potential for higher coverage on Saturday with the
surface trof moving into the area. Highs will be in the lower 90s,
except moderating to the upper 80s on Saturday. Lows will be in
the lower to mid 70s, except for upper 70s at the coast. /29

MARINE...The pattern of scattered showers and storms forming
offshore each night/morning and moving inland each afternoon
continues into midweek. A few storms will be capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusty straight line winds. Outside of
convection, winds become more southwest to westerly around 10 to 15
knots and seas build to around 2 to 3 feet today through midweek as
surface high pressure over the central Gulf is reinforced. /49




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