Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 061131
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. /08

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MILD AND SUNNY WEATHER
CONTINUES TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN
TONIGHT. THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE
OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL
ADVECT DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE AREA. AFTERNOON MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WHILE FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S MOST SITES AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. /08

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS
THE HIGH MOVES EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. /13

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE
PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
INCREASE. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S WITH LOWS WARMING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. /13

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING OVER SOUTH MOBILE BAY,
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AND THE OPEN GULF WATERS AS COOLER CONTINENTAL
AIR FLOWING SOUTHWARD OVER LAND CREATES A TIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MORNING, THE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN CREATING A LIGHTER OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUBSIDING SEAS OVER
THE OPEN GULF WATERS. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO LATE SATURDAY
WHEN A LIGHT ONSHORE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. /08

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$

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