Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 252315 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16
&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES...RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHERE
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 40S. THE LINGERING RIDGE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON
FRIDAY...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH CLOUD
COVERAGE CONTINUING TO INCREASE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS. /13

[FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT]...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ATTENDING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
PROPAGATES EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE...LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW)
AMOUNTS MORE THAN DOUBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS ALOFT AND OVERRIDES THE COOLER LOWER LEVELS. STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH PW AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES SHOULD
INITIATE LIGHT...OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS DEPICT MINOR WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW LIKELY TRIGGERING SHOWERS. WARM FRONTAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN OVER THE REGION WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON THE
SURFACE...LOW LEVEL INVERSION ALL BUT DISAPPEARS BUT LOW LEVEL MARINE
LAYER ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS ELEVATED. 0-1KM HELICITIES ARE MAXIMIZED
WHEN THERE IS LITTLE TO NO CAPE. HIGHEST ML CAPES (500 TO 1000 J/KG)
ARE PROJECTED OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE 0-1KM HELICITIES
ARE GENERALLY BELOW 80 M2/S2 AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT
APPROACHES OUR REGION THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GREATLY WEAKENED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS AND ENERGY IS SHEARED NORTHWARD. IF
MODEL TRENDS AND SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT REMAIN CONSISTENT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AT BEST AND THE WEAKENED COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
THAT CAN BE WRUNG OUT OF THIS MOISTURE RICH SCENARIO AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT
ENOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUBSTANTIAL
FLOODING IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...COOLER, DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST MONDAY AS GFS LINGERS THE FRONT NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
SLOWLY PROPAGATING IT SOUTHWARD...THE ECMWF PUSHES IT SOUTH. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BEGINS TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. /08 JW

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND MOVES EAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AND INCREASES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      42  64  54  69  62 /  00  10  60  80  60
PENSACOLA   46  63  54  68  63 /  00  05  40  80  50
DESTIN      46  62  55  68  65 /  00  05  30  80  50
EVERGREEN   32  62  48  66  60 /  00  05  30  80  60
WAYNESBORO  36  63  51  68  58 /  00  10  40  80  70
CAMDEN      33  62  46  64  57 /  00  05  30  90  70
CRESTVIEW   33  63  49  67  59 /  00  05  30  80  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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