Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 260836
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODERATE AS A
RESULT...BUT THE DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO CLOSE
TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOW 50S WELL INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 50S OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE RISE IN DEWPOINTS...SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. 34/JFB

(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG WAVES INDICATE A TRANSITION FROM A
PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW DEEPENING TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH ALIGNED ALONG
THE NORTHEAST GULF TO QUEBEC AND MIGRATING FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. SHORTER LENGTH WAVES IN THE 500 MB FLOW EMBEDDED IN THIS
FEATURE...DESPITE THEIR BRINGING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DO NOT SHOW
MUCH OF A CHANCE OF ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY AS THE FLOW IS
SHOWN PARALLEL TO THE 305K SURFACE ISOBARS...AND WITHOUT THAT FORCED
LIFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. 77/BD

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG WAVE OUTPUT
INDICATES FURTHER DEEPENING WITH MIGRATION FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC. AS THIS FEATURE BRINGS IN A DEEPENING WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES BY LATE TUESDAY. BY THEN THE ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE FLOW IS
SHOWN MORE CROSS ISOBARIC ON THE 305K SURFACE. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CLIMBING UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF...EVEN WITH SOME ONSHORE
SURFACE FLOW...LI IS STILL AROUND +2. THE 3-DIMENSIONAL STRUCTURE IS
INDICATING STABLE FORCED LIFTING IN THE MID-LEVELS. WE BELIEVE THIS
WILL BRING ABOUT WHAT THE MOS GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR...A LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE PHYSICAL
QPF CALCULATIONS AVERAGE OUT ABOUT 0.10 INCHES...WE BELIEVE 0.03
INCHES IS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THIS SITUATION GIVEN THE LOW CHANCE
PROBABILITY AND ALL. IT WILL ONLY BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...24 TO 36
HOURS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY ISENTROPIC UPSLOPE FLOW IS SHOWN PARALLEL TO
THE 305K ISOBARS AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ON THURSDAY THE
FRONT IS INDICATED TO BE PULLING UP STATIONARY ALONG THE SHORE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER FLOW
MOVES IT FURTHER OUT ON FRIDAY. FROM FRIDAY ON...WITH REINFORCING
COOL DRY AIR MOVING IN...WE WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE HIGH
BRINGING US BACK INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME VEERING TO
NORTHEASTERLY...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DRY AND COOL FORECAST
FRIDAY...AND ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS SATURDAY BEING IN THE 60S...THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

77/BD

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF MVFR FOG ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
GIVEN WARM LAND TEMPERATURES TODAY...A STRONGER SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
S-SW WINDS OVER THE AREA BAYS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THE FRONT FINALLY GETS A STRONG PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY. SEAS 1-2 FT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME 1 FT OR LESS BY
TONIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT MON AFTN-TUE. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      83  57  85  64  85 /  00  00  05  05  10
PENSACOLA   82  60  82  66  80 /  00  00  05  05  10
DESTIN      79  63  81  67  81 /  00  00  05  05  10
EVERGREEN   84  52  86  58  85 /  00  00  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  85  54  86  57  84 /  00  00  05  05  10
CAMDEN      84  53  86  58  83 /  00  00  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   84  50  86  56  86 /  00  00  05  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$










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