Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 032036
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...SKIES ARE CLOUDY WITH PATCHY
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S NORTHEAST
HALF TO THE 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT BECOME STEADY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLATEAU AND WESTERN PART OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 50S AND CHANGE
LITTLE AND POSSIBLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL INCH
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STRONG WARMING WILL OCCUR IN THESE
AREAS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STAY STRONG. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S...SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE NW BORDER. AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE KY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MESSY WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE NW. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN A
CHANGE OVER OF RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN...THEN SLEET...THEN SNOW AS THE
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO AND DEEPENS OVER ANY GIVEN AREA. HARDEST HIT
AREAS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER QPFS...THUS NW PLATEAU AND
SW VA ESPECIALLY LEE AND WISE COUNTIES THERE. AMOUNTS OF WINTRY
PRECIP WILL BE CONTINGENT UPON ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR.. AND TODAY/S
MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THAT ARRIVAL...COULD BE A TREND. SO
CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIP IS LOW. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST THE SUBFREEZING TEMPS WILL MAKE IT BEFORE PRECIP WANES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHETHER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS AROUND
CHA/TYS/TRI WILL BE NOTABLY IMPACTED IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS TIME. A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED AND WILL INCLUDE THOSE METRO
AREAS...BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE EVENT ENDS THURSDAY...A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
UNTIL THE END OF THE MONDAY/TUES TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             55  65  36  37 /  60  70  90  80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  54  63  33  34 /  60  70  90  80
OAK RIDGE, TN                       53  62  30  33 /  70  80  90  80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              49  63  32  34 /  70  80  90  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-
     LOUDON-MARION-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
     SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
     FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

TD/GC


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