Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 310801
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
401 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE UPPPER LOW THAT WAS WELL TO
OUR SOUTH 24 HOURS AGO...IS NOW INDICATED AS A TROUGH AXIS AROUND
300 MBS IN THE VICINTY OF NE TN/NW NC. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND SOME LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WERE ALLOWING AN AREA
OF SHOWERS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS WRN NC/NE TN/SW
VA. REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA WAS GENERALLY RAIN FREE...BUT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS SHOW THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING...AND REALLY DO NOT GENERATE A LOT OF AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. NOTICED NOT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER ON SUNDAY
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
PERSISTENT WEAK CAP FOR ESPECIALLY NE TN/SW VA. THUS...DOWNPLAYED
THE PROSPECTS OF THUNDER TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING. LOWERED POPS
A BIT FOR SE TN...WHILE STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS
ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DRY FOR TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING SO I ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE ACROSS SEVERAL AREAS.

FOR MAX TEMPS...WENT CLOSE TO THE COOLER MOS VALUES...AND FOR MINS
TONIGHT THE GFS MOS WAS FOLLOWED.  PLEASE NOTE THAT EQUIPMENT
PROBLEMS AT TYS ASOS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN QUESTIONABLE HIGHS TEMPS
EACH DAY. THE MAX TEMPERATURE THERE ON SUNDAY WAS LIKELY SEVERAL
DEGREES TOO COOL AND WILL LIKELY BE CORRECTED AT A LATER DATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SOME OF THE REMAINS OF THE MOISTURE OF ERIKA MAY INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY. THEN DRIER AIR MASS AND THE STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM AGAIN THURSDAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AROUND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             84  68  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  82  66  88  69 /  30  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       84  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              84  62  87  64 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD


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