Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 011851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS W TN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT OF THE FRONT
AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FOR E TN...SW
VA AND SW NC. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WANE IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA
WILL OCCUR MONDAY.

TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL MEANDER INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL. WE NEED THE RAINFALL JUST NOT ALL AT ONCE. PW VALUES FOR
MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE 1 INCH TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
RIVER FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW ROADWAYS IMPACTED BY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... ANOTHER EVENING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SITUATED NEAR US. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME PLACES
WILL HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH (WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH) AND SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEATING, HOWEVER,
LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM IN OUR AREA COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREATS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND TAKES WITH IT MOST OF
THE RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL
CHANCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE WILL BE MORE SPORADIC WITH
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THIS FIRST
FRONT AND BE BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY DEPICT A
SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY WITH THIS SECONDARY FRONT, BUT CURRENT
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL MUCH MORE LIMITED LEADING TO
ONLY CHANCE RAINFALL AND LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS. BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTED SLATED TO BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THIS FORECAST. WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ALONG
THE FRONT, WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE SMALL CHANCE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW IN THE TOPS OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
FLIRTING WITH BELOW FREEZING.

AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED
OFF TO OUR EAST A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING US TO
QUICKLY WARM UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AREA GETTING BACK TO
AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND MANY PLACES REACHING 80
DEGREES BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             63  78  60  72 /  50  80  70  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  75  58  71 /  50  70  70  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       63  74  59  70 /  50  80  60  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              59  74  57  70 /  50  70  70  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM



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