Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 211851
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
251 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST.  WEAK IMPULSES SLIDING
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...THEN THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE
SHOULD AFFECT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH AND HIGH CHANCE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
APPEARS CAPE VALUES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREATS.  WILL GO CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...BUT WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS ESPECIALLY NORTH FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AND DAILY CHANCES OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO PERMIT A
CHANCE OF NOCTURNAL MCS EVENTS...AND MAYBE THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN
OCCASION FOR SUCH A THING...MAYBE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR STARTERS.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM NORTH MIDWEEK...
REDUCING US TO MOSTLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON HIGHER ELEVATION
CONVECTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  92  73  93 /  20  30  30  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  92  72  93 /  20  30  30  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  89  68  90 /  30  50  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/GC



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