Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 031124
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
424 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND A RISK OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:32 AM PDT TUESDAY...THE CURRENT IR
SATELLITE IMAGE IS SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 700
MILES OFFSHORE APPROACHES THE COAST. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE ALSO
SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AS WELL...WITH THE FORT ORD
PROFILER SHOWING A 1200 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER.

THE 0000Z ECMWF AND 0600 GFS40 HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH MODELS BEGIN TO SLIDE
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STORM SYSTEM INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PASS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINTAINING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THE RISK OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. BY SATURDAY THE STORM CENTER WILL BE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...PLACING CALIFORNIA IN AN AREA OF RETURN FLOW WHICH WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND A RISK OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE WEST
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 04:21 AM PDT TUESDAY...IFR/MVFR CIGS BLANKET THE
BAY AREA THIS MORNING...BUT PASSING HIGH CLOUDS MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO SEE THEM ON SATELLITE. NONE THE LESS...PROFILERS AND
SODARS PUT THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 1500 FEET. GIVEN THE CURRENT
CLOUD COVER ALOFT...THINK DISSIPATION OF LOW CIGS MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TODAY.  VFR THIS AFTERNOON.  CIGS RETURN TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...CIGS 800-1100 THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS THROUGH 18-19Z. VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 04:19 AM PDT TUESDAY...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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