Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 011726
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
926 AM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS
OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP DOWN THE COAST BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS AND
ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:45 AM PST SUNDAY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BAY AREA AS THE CALENDAR HAS TURNED TO
MARCH. YESTERDAYS UPPER LOW IS NOW WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION WITH
SOME COLD AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE BAY AREA WILL SEE SKIES TURN PARTY CLOUDY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE HILLS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY WILL STAY CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE UPPER LOW TO KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED T-STORM IN THE FORECAST. THE 12Z NAM AND LATEST RUNS OF
THE RAP AND HRRR MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OVER
THE HILLS OF SAN BENITO AND MONTEREY COUNTY AND CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THAT COVERED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING THREAT. SPC HAS THIS COVERED WITH THE REGION IN THE
GENERAL T-STORM OUTLOOK TODAY AS WELL.

SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FAIRLY CHILLY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH A COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DROP DOWN THE COAST ON MONDAY BUT MODELS
ARE IN SOLID AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD STAYING
OFFSHORE. THE SYSTEM IS DROPPING FROM THE NORTH WITH A FAIRLY COLD
AIRMASS ALOFT. THUS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HILLS
ONCE AGAIN. ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY. IN FACT
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHANCES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW.

ANY SHOWERS END AS THE SUN SETS MONDAY EVENING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. UNFORTUNATELY IT LOOKS LIKE ANY RAIN CHANCES DISAPPEAR
UNTIL MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:25 AM PST SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOTALLY BUYING THIS AS ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH.

VICINITY OF KSFO...FORECASTING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CIGS
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER LOW SLIDES THROUGH. WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
PRECIP AS IT WILL BE SCT AND BEST CHC SOUTH OF SFO/OAK.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CU DECK
POSS THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 09:22 AM PST SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE BAY AREA WATERS TODAY AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE SOUTH. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVER OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NORTH OF PIGEON POINT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS. LIGHT WINDS AND GENTLE SEAS DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: MM

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