Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 180205
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1005 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through the
weekend. As it passes east early next week, rain chances
increase as low pressure and a cold front approach.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track. High pressure building in resulting in light
winds and clear skies. The weak warm advection may result in
slowly rising temperatures overnight. Low temperatures might be
a few degrees too low and may occur earlier than forecast. Still
feel that widespread frost is not likely overnight, thus after
collaboration with surrounding offices, have decided against a
Frost Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As high pressure moves in, a southwest flow will develop leading
to a gradual warm up in temperatures beginning on Wednesday.
Temperatures should warm to slightly above seasonable levels in
the upper 60s to lower 70s with plenty of sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aloft, initial weak shortwave passes with no impact on our weather.
Ridge builds late this week and through the weekend. Thereafter,
differences in the global models arise with regard to timing and
eventual strength of upstream trough as it moves toward the east
coast Monday and Tuesday.

At the surface, a weak cold front passes Thursday night into early
Friday. Otherwise, high pressure builds late this week, and passes
off the coast this weekend. A stronger cold front approaches from
the west Monday and Tuesday. Again, due to differences in the models
aloft, differences are noted on progression of the front, and any
associated waves of low pressure that may ride along it.

Higher confidence in an increase in clouds Monday and Tuesday, along
with increasing rain chances, mainly beginning Monday night into
Tuesday.

In the Thursday through Sunday time frame, expect abundant sunshine
along with daytime highs averaging around 5-10 degrees above normal.
In fact, these above normal temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday
as well in spite of the increase in clouds.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains to the south of the region through
Wednesday.

SW flow around 10 kt at coastal terminals will diminish in the
next few hours with winds settling closer to 5 kt overnight at
city terminals and light and variable winds elsewhere. Winds
briefly shift to the NW in the morning and then back to the SW
in the afternoon. S sea breezes are possible at coastal
terminals in the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday-Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure settles just south of the coastal waters into
Wednesday with sub SCA conditions. This is expected to continue
through the remainder of the week. Gusts may gust close to 20 kt
late Thursday/Thursday night ahead of a weak cold front.

As high pressure builds Friday through Saturday before passing east
Sunday, expect sub SCA conditions through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through this weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


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