Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 161448
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE VICINITY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN THROUGH FRIDAY. IT THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE...BUT WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
ON SUNDAY...PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXITING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSING EAST
OF THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LESS FORCING FOR LIFT GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
CLEARING THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVERGENCE AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGHER COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
STILL MOIST LOW LEVELS. WITH GROUNDS WET FROM RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...TEMPS LOWERED A FEW DEGREES AND THEREFORE MAX TEMPS WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES LOWER CONSIDERING THE WINDS ARE LIGHT SO THE
DOWNSLOPE WILL NOT BE AS EFFICIENT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE MORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN...CLEARING OUT THE SKY. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL THEN COMBINE
WITH THE CLEAR SKY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT BELOW NORMAL.

LITTLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN RESULTS IN A SUNNY DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. 850MB TEMP FALLS ABOUT A
DEGREE FROM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD ENABLE THE
WARMEST SPOTS INLAND TO REACH THE MID 70S...WITH AROUND 70/LOW 70S
FOR THE OTHER AREAS.

AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK DURING WEDS/WEDS NIGHT DUE TO SWELLS FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM EDOUARD...SITUATED WELL OUT TO SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE H5 FLOW AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF TROUGHS ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE CONUS WITH RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD INTO FRI...BUT THEN NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES
BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE FLOW LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US THU MORNING WILL LIFT WITH
RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH SAT. A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE NE SAT WILL GIVE
WAY TO FALLING HEIGHTS SUN AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W.
AS STATED ABOVE...FORECAST DETAILS BECOME FUZZY FROM THIS POINT ON
WITH THE EC THE STRONGEST ALOFT...CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH OVER S
CENTRAL CANADA BY 00Z SUN WHILE THE CMC...GFS AND UKMET MAINTAIN AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE ALL HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES
AS WELL. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ITS SLOW MOVEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN US.

HAVE KEPT THU DRY ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER AROUND.
OTHERWISE...SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING DOWN FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL
TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRI AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON SAT. IT IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON THU...THEN FALL
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW ON FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A WARMING TREND
THEN DEVELOPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SAT AND SUN NIGHTS WHERE THEY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST LATE.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL END WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS.
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL ALSO IMPROVE AS SHOWERS END AND
CLEARING BEGINS. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY. LIGHT
WINDS...MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST WILL VARY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. A BRIEF SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS SETTLE BACK NW LATE IN THE DAY. SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND FOR
WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING AND
FOR WIND DIRECTION FORECASTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CIG/VSBY THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE. HOWEVER...SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS INTO THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD. LEANED CLOSED TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE...KEEPING SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SWELLS FROM EDOUARD ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL BE DECREASING OVER TIME. SUB ADVSY CONDS WILL
PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS THU/THU NIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING NE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FRI/FRI
NIGHT. GUSTS COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS...MAINLY ON THE OCEAN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THU NIGHT AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
ARE FORECAST WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. NO RAINFALL IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/24
HYDROLOGY...24/JM








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