Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 161530
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY ISSUED THROUGH 3 PM...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE STARTED TO GUST NEAR/OVER 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS AS SFC HEATING INCREASES MIXING WITHIN THE
BL... AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED DUE TO TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH ACROSS SWRN KS AND THE PANHANDLES. SFC
ANALYSIS AT 15Z SHOWED WINDS STARTING TO VEER TO THE W/NW ACROSS
THE OK PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS AND SERN CO.

OTHER THAN WINDS... TEMP FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK... MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE A TAD FASTER
ACROSS NWRN OK AND WRN OK THIS MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER... NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT RFW... RH VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH NOON... WITH TEENS ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND
WRN N TX BY THE AFTN. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONT THROUGH THE AFTN.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON AND OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

03

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM AROUND 10 MPH UP TO 30 MPH FROM SE
TO NW RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPS ELEVATED. BATCH OF CIRRUS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THIN AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
DECIDED TO ISSUE RFW FOR WESTERN OK AND WESTERN N TX WHERE WINDS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND RH LOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THERE...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
INITIAL MIXING.

STILL EXPECT 50-80 PERCENT POPS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF OK THURS AS
A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AT
LEAST SUPPORT HIGH PROBS OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS FEATURE. STILL A
BIT UNCLEAR ON HOW MUCH CAA WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONT...BUT PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WILL DEFINITELY KEEP TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THURSDAY
SINCE ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR FA.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END QUICKLY BY LATE THURS AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING REPLACES THE TROUGH AXIS. THEN...BY
SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SW CONUS AND GULF OF CA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS LIKELY
PASSES OVER DURING THE DAY EASTER SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
CHC POPS/THUNDER LATE SAT THROUGH SUN WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNING AND A FRONT ALSO IN PLAY BY SUN. DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
SEVERE POTENTIAL RIGHT NOW...BUT SOUTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE
FAVORED FOR THE MOMENT WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER COMBINED WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  46  60  46 /   0  10  70  20
HOBART OK         73  48  58  43 /   0  10  40  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  50  63  49 /   0  10  50  20
GAGE OK           74  42  56  37 /   0  30  70   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  43  57  41 /   0  10  70  10
DURANT OK         66  47  64  52 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ007-008-
     011>029-034-035-038.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ011-014>017-
     021>023-033>038-044.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>089.

&&

$$


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