Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOUN 241116
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
516 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Some
high clouds will move through all sites. South/southwest winds
will increase this morning, with most sites seeing gusts over
20kts by late morning. A cold front will move south across
Oklahoma into north Texas tonight bringing a shift to north winds.
Some gusts over 20kts possible at CSM/HBR toward end of forecast.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
With the continuation of above normal temperatures and several
days with moderate/strong winds, elevated to near critical fire
weather conditions will be main concern. Storm system may bring a
chance of rain by the middle of next week.

Warm and breezy conditions will develop across Oklahoma and
western north Texas today as temperatures will be some 20 degrees
above seasonal norms. This will result in elevated fire weather
conditions, especially across parts of southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Will look at the need for a fire danger
statement for those areas.

A weak cold front will move south across the area tonight with
only minimal cooling and a moderate north wind. Again some areas
of southwest Oklahoma may see elevated fire weather conditions.
Winds should relax fairly quickly however during the mid/late
afternoon hours.

South winds return Sunday and strengthen Monday ahead of
developing west coast trough. If moisture return is as quick as
models show, fire conditions would be somewhat muted. However, if
it turns out to be a bit slower, near critical to critical
conditions may occur.

The latest runs of both the GFS and ECMWF close this system off
near the four corners area. However, they differ on chance of
appreciable rainfall across the southern Plains as the system
moves through late Tuesday into Wednesday time frame. Where the
ECMWF appears to be a bit moisture-starved and therefore does not
produce much precip. The GFS moisture profile looks better, but
wraps some drier air into back side of system as it moves through
the area. This keeps better rain chances across northern and
eastern Oklahoma into Kansas with very little rainfall across
central into southern parts of the area.

Models then show a stronger cold front for late next week, and
again moving through with very little in the way of precip.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  48  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78  48  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  78  47  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           80  42  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     77  46  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         73  46  70  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

23/30/01


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.