Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 260743
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
243 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Rain chances and heavy rainfall potential for the next several
days are the main concerns.
For now, will not issue any Flash Flood Watches as any flooding
should remain small scale in nature. Also, have low confidence on
where heavy rainfall and flood flood occur during the next few
This morning, will keep the highest rain chances 30-40% over
southern Oklahoma and north Texas. As of 230 am this morning,
isolated to widespread showers and thunderstorms were from near
Hollis and Altus OK to Norman. Overall, these showers and storms
were weakening as they were drifting south. This activity has
pushed an outflow boundary into far southern Oklahoma which may
trigger new showers and storms in a moist airmass. Locally heavy
rainfall of a few inches and small scale flooding are possible
with this activity, which may weaken throughout the morning as the
low level jet weakens.
This afternoon and evening, additional isolated to scattered
showers will form across the area. Pinpointing exactly where and
when remains tricky. Kept the highest rain chances 40-50% east of
a Wichita Falls to Ponca City line where highest precipitable
water values are forecast, generally 1.8-2.2", not far from the
maximum climatology values for this time of year. Locally heavy
rainfall of a few inches and flooding are possible with slow
moving storms during this time frame. Some locations, especially
in northwestern Oklahoma, will remain dry. Due to weak shear,
storms will remain pulse and fairly unorganized in nature. Severe
potential remains low, though a damaging wind gust or two near 60
mph cannot completely be ruled out.
As for highs today, believe cloud cover and abundant moisture will
keep them down. Preferred the lower model guidance numbers which
keeps highs below 90 degrees in parts of central and northern
Oklahoma. However, it will be very humid, especially since rain
occurred last evening, and actual surface dewpoints may be higher
than models depict, possibly in the mid to upper 70s across the
eastern two thirds of Oklahoma.
Wednesday appears to be very similar to today. More storms with
locally heavy rainfall and flooding mainly near and southeast of
I-44 are possible. Temperatures will remain slightly below average
for this time of year, though it will be more humid than average
with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s.
Thursday, slightly drier air may move into the area and allow for
slightly lower rain chances as well as hotter temperatures. There
is still a chance for some strong storms with locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds. Temperatures may return to closer to
average for this time of year. Humid conditions can be expected.
Thursday night through Sunday, a few organized complexes of
thunderstorms may affect the area, mainly across the northeastern
half of Oklahoma as the mid/upper northwest flow strengthens.
Timing of these complexes remain uncertain. Generally went 20-40%
rain chances during this time frame. Some strong to severe storms
may be possible with damaging winds along with additional heavy
rainfall and localized flooding. Temperatures are forecast to be
near average, though confidence is very low as complexes of storms
can significantly alter the nearby environment.
Sunday night into early next week, drier and hotter weather may
occur, though confidence is low.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 89 73 91 72 / 50 40 40 30
Hobart OK 93 74 94 72 / 30 30 20 20
Wichita Falls TX 94 76 95 75 / 40 40 40 30
Gage OK 91 70 93 69 / 20 10 20 20
Ponca City OK 87 72 91 72 / 40 30 30 30
Durant OK 93 74 92 74 / 40 40 50 30