Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 201805
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1005 AM PST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...MORNING UPDATE...A STRONG AND VERY WET PACIFIC STORM
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN WORK IT`S WAY OUT
ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. CURRENT WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS STILL LOOK FINE, BUT DID
ADD A HIGH WIND WARNING TO THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES. AS SUCH
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS ALONG THE OREGON CASCADE EAST SLOPES, AND
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE. SNOW LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2500 FEET OVER YAKIMA AND KITTITAS COUNTIES. SNOW
LEVELS IS THESE COUNTIES WILL RISE TO AT LEAST 3000 FEET BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER WESTERN
KITTITAS COUNTY CONTINUE TO NOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN
4000 AND 4500 FEET ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN WALLOWA COUNTY WHERE THEY
ARE NEAR 3000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE BY AT LEAST 1000 FEET
THROUGH TODAY. OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE. 90

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
THE REGION MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND A
CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE
GFS HAS SLOWED THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 12 HRS
FASTER. BOTH MODELS HAVE REDUCED THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STORM. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TURNING COLDER BY CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT ALSO DRIER. THERE COULD BE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY SO
THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY
MFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND BR. RAIN WILL TAPER
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS COULD REACH 20-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 45KT FROM THE WSW AT KPDT,
KALW, KRDM, AND KBDN AND CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. 93

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE OREGON CASCADES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 8000 FEET. THIS WILL PUSH
STREAMS AND RIVERS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF OREGON CASCADES TO
BANKFULL WITH FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER DESCHUTES. THE BLUE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GET HEAVY RAIN WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LARGE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE MINOR FLOODING. ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, COOLER AIR AND LESS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SEEN OVERNIGHT AND IT APPEARS MAIN PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH WITH NEWER FORECASTS COMING IN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE
NACHES RIVER. FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AREAS COME IN FOCUS. 93

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  46  57  39 /  90  90  80  50
ALW  51  44  56  39 /  90 100  90  60
PSC  49  42  55  39 /  90  80  40  10
YKM  43  35  50  34 /  90  80  40  20
HRI  51  43  56  41 /  90  80  50  20
ELN  42  33  46  32 /  90 100  60  20
RDM  49  41  53  40 /  90  80  70  20
LGD  43  39  47  38 /  90 100 100  80
GCD  43  41  46  41 /  90 100  80  60
DLS  49  43  52  41 /  90 100  90  40

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON ORZ041-509>511.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON ORZ049-050-502-503-505>508.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ044.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY ORZ509.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ510-511.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ507.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY ORZ508.

WA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON WAZ024-026-027-520-521.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON WAZ029-030.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ028.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ521.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ029.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST SUNDAY WAZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WESTERN KITTITAS COUNTY IN THE WAZ520.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

90/78/93







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