Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 290858
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
158 AM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY WITH A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUING WARMING TREND FOR TODAY AND THEN IT WILL LEVEL OFF ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MAINLY 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING
WEAK IT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
PERSIST OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS...MOSTLY IN THE
SOUTHERN AREA MOUNTAINS. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIGHER DEW POINTS...BUT
DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S IN THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. AS SUCH...THE BEST DAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON SUNDAY. THE NAM12 MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS EACH DAY...BUT THAT IS TYPICAL OF THE NAM12
TO SHOW MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE STRONG. THE LOWER
COLUMBIA BASIN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
MPH...THOUGH THERE COULD BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF WINDS 15-25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. 88

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP ACROSS WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT
AROUND THIS FEATURE AND MOVE ACROSS OREGON ON TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS
GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.

INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS OREGON. THUNDERSTORMS...A COUPLE OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG...WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTS NEWD ACROSS WASHINGTON PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR
DOWN AND THUS HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURE UP CONSIDERABLY FOR MONDAY.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
MUCH COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN EASTERN OREGON. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
TO BE LESS WET WITH JUST A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY COLUMBIA BASIN/GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 78

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE AMPLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING CU WILL DEVELOP AT 6-8K FEET. ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL NOT
CARRY IN THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY A MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT FOR THIS EVENING AT
KDLS WHERE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED. 78

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  87  60  85  58 /  10  20  10  10
ALW  89  64  88  62 /  10  20  10  20
PSC  92  61  91  59 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  90  60  86  58 /  10  20  10   0
HRI  90  62  90  60 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  89  57  86  55 /  20  20  10   0
RDM  85  50  83  48 /  30  30  20  20
LGD  83  55  83  53 /  20  20  30  30
GCD  85  54  85  52 /  20  20  30  30
DLS  91  61  87  59 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

88/78/78



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