Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 221627
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1027 AM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING
TO CAPTURE A GREATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPER CLEARING TONIGHT. WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
LOOK WET AND WE WILL ADDRESS THAT MORE COMPLETELY ON THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. FOR NOW...SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

LOW EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE SO THAN YESTERDAY AND SO TODAY
SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE ENERGY IS STILL FAIRLY LOW. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DEEP
MOISTURE AND MAY PREVENT THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE FROM BEING
REACHED. SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH WEAK UPPER AIR FLOW COULD MEAN SOME
HEAVY RAINS AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. STRONG COOLING
TODAY...BUT THERE IS A RAPID CHANGE IN STORE BY TUE. THE LOW
CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD TRACK AND CLEAR SKIES AND SUNSHINE RETURN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT AND PRECIPITATION THREAT NEAR ZERO THROUGH WED NIGHT.
MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS
CONCERNING TIMING OF A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GEM STATE.
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO BRING IN THE RAIN...AND THUS IS WETTER ON
SUN. MEANWHILE...THE FASTER GFS IS WETTER FOR FRI AND SAT. THIS
DIFFERENCE HAS CONTINUED FOR THREE NIGHTS AND TWO DAYS NOW...AND
SO HAVE PAINTED CLOUDS AND POPS WITH A VERY BROAD BRUSH. THE ONE
THING THAT THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON IS SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SO HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY HIGH...AT LEAST ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CEILINGS TODAY. THERE IS SOME PATCHY FOG THAT COULD AFFECT SOME TAF
SITES AND COULD RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY
THIS MORNING. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION
TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PRODUCE MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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