Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 272002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
202 PM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...Storms ongoing this afternoon, mainly over the
central mountains with a few weak cells so far over the southeast
corner and eastern highlands. High res models suggest that outflow
boundaries from storms over the central mountains could be enough
to fire additional storms into the Snake Plain later this
afternoon or evening. Additional development over the southern
highlands also possible. Heavy rain and small hail the most
likely threat given the high PWAT air mass lingering over the area
but gusty winds also possible. Shortwave pushes past the region
overnight tonight, and convection likely quickly drops off after
sunset. High pressure redevelops over the Great Basin through the
weekend. Weak features aloft may be all that`s needed to fire
convection, especially with just a minor decrease in PWAT over the
next several days. Expect warmer temperatures as well, so
convective temperatures may be easier to reach. That said, kept
overall chances for thunderstorms low, with the potential for
significant day to day changes in probabilities. Best potential
likely to begin over higher elevations each afternoon. DMH


.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms continue through this evening
before dying off. VFR weather is expected although if a storm
impacts an airport directly locally heavy rain could drive ceilings
and visibility to MVFR. Gusty winds over 25kts and also small hail
are a risk. Much less thunderstorm coverage is forecast Friday as
monsoon moisture decreases and we are left with isolated storms over
the mountains. Keyes


.FIRE WEATHER...We are seeing one last round today of showers and
widely scattered thunderstorms across the area. Mountain zones will
be the most impacted although we will have to watch 425 and 410 to
see if outflows push across and possibly kick off more storms.
Locally heavy rain is possible along with gusty winds over 30mph and
maybe even small hail. Coverage will be much, much lower Friday and
Saturday. There is no real mechanism to produce storms over than
mountains and afternoon heating. This should lead to isolated
storms, which will be more on the dry side as monsoon moisture
decreases. We will be watching on Sunday for a potential uptick in
storms as a weak storm moves across the state. At this time, it`s
hard to say if we reach scattered territory but again storms should
be more "dry" as deep monsoon won`t be around. Otherwise, high
pressure builds back over us and we end up with multiple days of
warmer temperatures. Expect low humidity including poor overnight
recovery where the inversion sets up. We aren`t going to be storm-
free those as limited moisture will produce isolated dry storms.
Where that will occur remains to be determined until we get into
early next week. Keyes



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