Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 270857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
257 AM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night.
Expect dry and warm conditions to continue today with high
temperatures approaching 15 to 20 degrees above normal in some
areas. Will start to see a change tonight as a moist Pacific
system will drive northeast from off the California coast and
spread extensive moisture into southeast Idaho. Showers will move
into the central mountains overnight and overspread all of
southeast Idaho on Friday. Precipitation will likely continue
Friday night over the Snake Plain and eastern highlands where the
heaviest rain is expected. Snow levels will start above 10
thousand feet and drop to around 9 thousand feet Friday night.
Precipitation should end Saturday but another quick system will
spread more showers into the central mountains Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday night. Models in general
agreement with a deep upper trof moving into the west coast on
Sunday. This system is expected to spread precip across the entire
fcst area thru Sun night. Snow levels running around 9000 ft...but a
little lower in the central mtns. So not expecting a snow threat
from this system. Precip chances diminish Mon as the upper trof
flattens out. Upper ridging leaves the area dry Mon night. Both GFS
and ECMWF bring a split flow trof into the west coast on Tue. The
ECMWF maintains more of a northern stream trof...and thus is a
little wetter than the GFS. Will keep the slight chance pops in the
central mtns Tue. Both show a more dominant southern stream upper
low over central CA...too far south to have any impact on ID. Models
diverge Wed night and Thu with the GFS developing an upper low over
southern ID on Thu with widespread precip. The ECMWF brings a minor
upper trof across northern ID Wed night...then a high amplitude
ridge and dry for Thu. Will go more with the ECMWF on this one.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected today with breezy sw winds this
aftn in the upper Snake River Plain. Showers begin to move into the
central mtns this eve...then across the rest of the area by Fri morn
as an upper trof moves thru the Great Basin. Hedges



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