Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 221942
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY DEEP
AND WET LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOTED OVER PENDLETON WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING SE IDAHO AHEAD OF
THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL SHIFT
OVER SUN VALLEY TONIGHT...IDAHO FALLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
BILLINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION GENERALLY
TAPERING OFF SOME LATE TONIGHT AND THEN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND ERN MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SRN IDAHO SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NE OF THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EVENING...SOME
HEAVY AT TIMES. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...PRIMARILY
FOR THE BURN SCARS...THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. SECONDARY ENERGY
DROPS INTO THE WRN EXTENT OF THE EXITING TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES AND A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NRN
GREAT BASIN. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS IS PROJECTING THAT HURRICANE
MARIE...NOW LOCATED WEST OF ACAPULCO...WILL LIFT NW AND EVENTUALLY
GET SWEPT INTO YET ANOTHER PAC THROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE NW COAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING THESE DEVELOPMENTS
WITH INTEREST. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW DEEPENING OVER
PAC NW THIS AFTERNOON WITH JET STREAK DYNAMICS ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...BUT
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOWER VISIBILITY. WITH SOME
CLEARING EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN TONIGHT AND ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PIH AND IDA MAY SEE SOME CIG/VIS ISSUES IN THE
MORNING. HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS FROM THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. INSTABILITY...LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE ALL IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN RECENT BURN AREAS. UPPER LOW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT INTO THE YELLOWSTONE AREA...AND MODELS
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND INTO FIRE
ZONES 475 AND 476...THEN DRIFTING OVER ZONES 410 AND 411 IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS TOMORROW EVENING. WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE QUIETER
ON SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY
TUESDAY AND UPPER RIDGING SHOULD LEAD TO DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT IDZ018-031-032.
&&

$$






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