Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 270846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
246 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Discussion...Current WV imagery indicates energy from a short
wave trough is pushing through eastern Washington this morning.
Upper low circulations can be seen along the Colorado Front Range
and in the Dakotas. Mesoscale models favoring best precip chances
over the Island Park area extending west to the Central Mountains,
and along our southern border. Best synoptic lift comes through
this afternoon and evening along the trough axis, but models are
not showing much moisture coming in with the system. Thus, impacts
to the Snake River Plain will be increased wind speeds this
afternoon and evening. Therefore will keep Lake Wind Advisory
going for today. Subsidence should help suppress most of the
convective activity Saturday, but will maintain previous forecast
of 20 to 30 PoPs along the MT border. Activity picks up a bit on
Sunday as another short wave trough bears down on the PAC NW.
Showers/afternoon thunderstorms will be a little more widespread.

Models begin to signal a shift from the wet pattern to a drier,
warmer pattern as upper ridging builds in along the coast early
next week. This will bring highs into the 80s by the end of the
week as the ridge shifts further inland. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Shortwave feature draped across PacNW states today. Weak
instability present with focus mainly over northern zones. KSUN/KIDA
best chances to see convective develop today. Ceilings remain
primarily VFR with potential for MVFR under convection. Gusty
outflow winds primary threat from stronger storms. Other impact
today remains winds through Snake Plain as surface gradient tightens
behind frontal boundary associated with shortwave. Winds primarily
15-20kts this afternoon and early evening. DMH


.FIRE WEATHER...Shortwave feature in place over PacNW states today.
Frontal boundary pushes through east Idaho with dry punch working
into the Snake Plain. Best chances for showers/storms remains
northern zones today though cannot rule out isolated cells
developing through other higher elevation areas along Wyoming and
Utah borders. Gusty winds main threat. Winds this afternoon through
Snake Plain jump to around 20 mph. Shortwave lifts northeast Friday
night through Saturday with flat dry flow across the region. Another
feature pushes through region late Sunday through Monday for
additional convection again mainly higher elevation areas. Models
still favor development of ridge across the western states Tuesday
and beyond, possibly signaling a return to a more typical dry and
warm summer pattern. DMH

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ021.


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