Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 301934
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
134 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE 500 MB LEVEL LOOKS TO RESEMBLE A BROAD UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND STANLEY. THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 9 PM MDT. THE 700MB WIND FIELD IS BROKEN INTO TWO
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER
OVER EASTERN OREGON. AXIS OF CONTRACTION LOOKS LIKE IT LIES ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. BOTH OF THOSE AREAS
SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY...THE 700MB CIRCULATION OVER OREGON MOVES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH STILL LEAVES SOME ELEMENT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT
AND/OR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM MONIDA PASS BACK TOWARDS MACKAY
AND STANLEY AREA...AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE NORTHERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS MAY MOVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE ARCO
DESERT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
SLIGHT CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE HERNAN GETTING CAUGHT IN FLOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO.
LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL HIGH LEVEL CONTRIBUTION THAT DOES NOT REALLY
BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MUCH.

.LONG TERM...A DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A
BIT. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE AROUND MONDAY. OTHERWISE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EP

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ422-475-476.

&&

$$






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