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000
FXUS65 KPIH 211944
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
144 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OUT OVER OREGON AND WOBBLE BETWEEN OR AND WA THRU FRIDAY. SW
FLOW ALOFT IS STRENGTHENING OVER ID AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND WILL
RESULT IN STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ON WED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR WED. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL APPROACH
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH NEWER GUIDANCE FOR
A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. MODELS STILL SHOWING
THE PRECIP TO BE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THRU FRIDAY. ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...BUT THE STRONG SW FLOW RESULTS IN DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS
...THUS TENDING DRY. RADAR ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS IN NE OR THIS
AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET...BUT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NEW GFS RUN SHOWING MORE PROGRESSIVE TROF NOW PUSHING THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A SECOND TROF MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.   SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE POSSIBLE
MONDAY.   EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.   IN GRIDS HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ALL
LOCATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS AT HAILEY THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
MOISTURE WORKS THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO.   DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND KEPT OUT OF THE OTHER THREE SITES.
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE PICKED UP AT
ALL FOUR SITES AND 10 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNSET.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ021.

&&

$$