Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260816
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
216 AM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.
Today appears to be the best day for thunderstorm activity in the
short term. Upper level short wave combined with instability
should cause isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the central
mountains east through the Upper Snake Highlands and the Island
Park area. The big concern will be the possibility of fire starts
as extensive precipiation not expected with storms. The Snake
Plain and south should not see any activity. Temperatures will
remain very hot through Thursday with highs in the 90s in the
Snake Plain and 80s in the mountains. Do not expect thunderstorms
Wednesday or Thursday.
GK

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.
The very hot conditions will continue through Saturday as an upper
level trof approaches. Flow aloft turning southwest may allow more
monsoonal moisture into the region and an increase in the chance
for thunderstorms to develop Saturday through Monday and included
in grids. May finally see a cooling to near seasonal normals by
Monday into Tuesday.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...A flat trough was migrating east through CNTRL Idaho
early this morning and is expected to promote thunderstorm
development along the Montana divide this afternoon/eve extending
westward toward Mackay. Little or no impact is anticipated at the
terminal locations. Huston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A flat trough was migrating east through CNTRL Idaho
early this morning and is expected to promote isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development along the Montana divide this afternoon/eve
extending westward toward Mackay. All of this after a prolonged dry
period. Thus a Red Flag Warning has been issued for fire zones 475
and 476 across the CNTRL mountains and zone 411 encompassing mainly
the Centennial Mountains extending from Monida pass eastward through
Island Park. A ridge rebounds over southern Idaho Wednesday morning
as the trough exits east of the region.  A second weaker disturbance
rotates into SW Canada and the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday
afternoon/eve which may create an uptick in winds in the evening and
isolated thunderstorms along the Montana/Wyoming border region near
Island Park. After this disturbance passes east, the main ridge over
the SW states expands northwestward across Nevada (not nearly as far
north as previous model runs) encouraging sub-tropical moisture to
work north across Nevada Friday. By Saturday and Sunday, a fairly
strong Pacific trough spreads into WRN Canada with the trough axis
and associated cold front sweeping inland across the NW states
Sunday and Monday. Again, the model details continue to vary from
run to run during this time frame but the overall depiction of a sub-
tropical push northward across SE Idaho Saturday through Monday with
accompanying isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity and
increasing winds Sunday and Monday still holds. Heightened fire
activity is anticipated this weekend and continuing into the early
part of next week. We will work out the details as that time frame
draws near. Huston
&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ411-475-476.

&&

$$


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