Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 030841
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
241 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS OVER WESTERN CANADA...BRINGING JUST THE RIGHT STEERING
FLOW TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING WITH UNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO DRIFT INTO THE HEAVILY POPULATED SIDE OF
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE TRIGGERING MECHANISM OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE BETTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE 04/00Z TO
04/06Z TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS BREAKING OFF FROM THE MAIN
LOW AND DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
SURGING INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IDAHO FOR THU AFTERNOON/EVE AND
FRI AFTERNOON/EVE. THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATERS BARELY REACH 0.75
INCH...SO DO NOT BELIEVE THERE IS MUCH FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVIER RAIN IN WESTERN IDAHO. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THOUGH TO MAKE SURE THE HIGHER P.W. STAYS THERE.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND...SEE NO SIGNIFICANT WIND DURING THIS
TIME. THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MILD OVERNIGHT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ALSO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE LOW THAT ENTERS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BRINGS MUCH
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/INSTABILITY AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A DAY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE LATE NIGHT. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER NORTHERN UTAH...BUT FORTUNATELY A
PACIFIC NORTHWEST HIGH MAKES IT A BATTLE OVER CONTROL OF EASTERN
IDAHO. BY MON...THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AND CONDITIONS DRY OUT
CONSIDERABLY. FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD...THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...THUNDERSTORM THREAT APPEARS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND THE MONTANA BORDER REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING STRONGLY
ABOVE NORMAL ON MON AND TUE...10 TO 12 DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS. MESSICK

&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE VICINITY AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.   CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UNDER 10
KNOTS UNLESS NEAR A THUNDERSTORM.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON SHORE IN
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND DOMINATE SOUTHEAST IDAHO WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS.   EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERPETUATE AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW.   WETTEST PERIOD APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.  SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.   WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
GK

&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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