Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 010130
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
230 PM SST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NCEP AND UKMO MODELS HAVEN`T
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM YESTERDAY. THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS NOW INDICATE ONLY MINIMAL SHOWERS
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RESOLUTION
SHOWS INCREASING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS STARTING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. YET...A DIFFUSED TROUGH
AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL REGROUP UNTIL THE HIGH PRESSURE
BLOCKS THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH DURING SUNDAY. IF
MODELS ARE CORRECT...DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED BY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW CHANGES TO
THE PREV FCST.

.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...THE LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL HINTS AT BRINGING SEA HEIGHTS
UP TO 8 FEET STARTING SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS LOCAL WINDS
PICK UP A NOTCH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE COMBINED SEAS WILL RISE TO
NEAR 6 TO 8 FEET AS WELL.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB







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