Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 020213 AAA
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
313 PM SST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERIES
SHOW A LINE OF CONVECTIONS ORIENTED OVER MANUA AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA. THIS LINE OF CONVECTIONS IS SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHEAST. RAOB FROM THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UNSTABLE PROFILE.
ASCAT SWATH FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED STRONG AND GUSTY TRADES
ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS. MODELS HAVE KEPT THE TROUGH TO THE NEAR
NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE IT DESCENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TO THE FAR REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BY THESE TWO WEATHER FEATURES
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL INCREASE AND SUSTAIN TRADES 25 TO 35 MPH ON
SATURDAY. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SUNDAY MORNING. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ISLANDS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. THEREFORE WILL AMEND THE PREVIOUS FCST TO REFLECT CURRENT
MODEL OUTPUTS.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE ACTIVE TROUGH ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
EAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST. THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH
WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHEAST WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO LIKEWISE AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
GENTLE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE AGAIN BRINGING
REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE
WILL AMEND THE PREVIOUS FCST TO REFLECT NEW MODEL PREDICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SWELLS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 13 TO 15 FT HAVE IMPACTED COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUTHERN SHORELINES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY. CONCERN RESIDENTS HAVE REPORTED DIFFICULTIES
IN NAVIGATING SMALL CRAFTS ON THE AUNUU CHANNEL. COMBINED SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE 12 TO 14 FT ON SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING
FURTHERMORE 7 TO 9 FT ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...HSA AND SCA REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN FACING SHORES OF THE
ISLANDS. WILL ISSUE A HIGH SURF WARNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO REFLECT THE CURRENT SEVERE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF WARNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

&&

$$

MALALA








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