Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 262111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
700 AM ChST Wed Jul 27 2016

.Synopsis...East winds and isolated showers prevail
across the Marianas this morning.

Weak high pressure has built across the Marianas which will keep
shower isolated through the day.

Low-level convergence and a series of weak surface troughs will
cause a chance of isolated thunderstorms through Thursday night
and again over the weekend. Since these troughs will be weak
shower coverage will remain isolated.


Ritidian, Ipan and Tanapag buoy data show combined seas of
around 2 to 4 feet this morning and a swell period of around 12
seconds. A east trade-wind swell will be present through the
forecast. As no significant weather systems are expected through
the week which might increase winds or swell the east swell will
not become too large. With winds staying around 10 knots through
the forecast, expect wind waves to remain at around 2 feet through
the week. Surf is predicted to be at 3 to 5 feet on east facing
reefs and 1 to 2 feet on north, west, and south facing reefs. The
rip current risk will be low through the week. Surf on east facing
reefs will decrease to 2 to 4 feet on Thursday as swell period
decreases slightly.

.Eastern Micronesia...
No significant changes were made to the forecast. A surface trough
is moving across the area. Satellite shows scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms to the north of Kosrae mainly between 8N and 11N
from 162E to near Kwajalein at 168E, otherwise just spotty showers
and light to moderate trade winds prevail across Chuuk, Pohnpei
and Kosrae States and the Marshall Islands. The trough is expected
to move westward and trigger showers for Pohnpei today and
Thursday, then Chuuk mainly on Thursday. Moderate trade winds with
spotty showers will persist across the area, and GFS shows another
surface trough moving westward across the Date Line by this weekend.
Majuro-Kalo Buoy shows combined seas around 4 feet.


.Western Micronesia...
Reasoning for the Chuuk forecast can be found in the Eastern
Micronesia discussion above.

Some minor changes were made to the forecast. A disturbance remains
over far Western Micronesia, and there could be weak circulations
roughly near 4N133E, and near 4N143E. Satellite shows cloudiness
with showers and a few thunderstorms in patchy areas over western
Palau, and just north of Yap and farther southeast of Yap. Models
indicate the disturbance will moved toward northwest during the
coming days and become better organized as it moves across the
Philippine Sea. Damp weather will continue at Yap and Koror while
the disturbance is nearby, and as it slowly departs the area, then
slightly drier weather should arrive from the east by weekend.


Marianas Waters...None.


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