Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 272226 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
826 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY ISSUED FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. BOTH
SAIPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOYS INDICATE WAVES OF 7 TO 8 FEET AND SOME
NEAR 9 FEET ARE PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CHST MON JUL 28 2014/

MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS PATCHY RAIN AND SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF
GUAM AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE IR SHOWS ONLY
PATCHY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...MAINLY NEAR
SAIPAN. MUCH HEAVIER CONVECTION THATS ASSOCIATED WITH JTWC INVEST
AREA 90W IS EDGING OUR WAY ACROSS 150E BETWEEN 10N AND 15N. THE
RITIDIAN BUOY HAS BEEN SHOWING COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8 FT MAINLY
FROM SW...AND TANAPAG SHOWS SEAS NEAR 7 FT.

DISCUSSION...
WE CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS
THE MARIANA FORECAST ZONES AND ESPECIALLY INVEST 90W...WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 13N151E. INVEST 90W IS STILL DEVELOPING SLOWLY AND
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SIMILAR
IDEAS ABOUT 90W MOVING ROUGHLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT DIFFER IN
ITS EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO
GFS SOLUTION AND 90W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE LATE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM WATERS. MARINE GRIDS
ARE PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD RESULT IN
GREAT DIFFERENCES FOR WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THIS WEEK. IF 90W DEVELOPS MUCH AT ALL...THEN SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY...AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WAVES GRIDS FOR THAT LIKELIHOOD.

EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WERE MADE AS THE
GENERAL WEATHER SETUP REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF
CHUUK REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWEST.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE
WILL PULL NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ALLOWING DRIER WEATHER TO
CONTINUE FILTERING IN ACROSS THIS REGION. SATELLITE SHOWS SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF
MAJURO ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK COULD
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE MARSHALLS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WAVE
MODELS SHOW A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT KOSRAE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL.
MEANWHILE AT POHNPEI...HAZARDOUS SURF ON WEST-FACING SHORES WILL
SUBSIDE A LITTLE TODAY WITH SURF FALLING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF KOROR HAS MADE LITTLE NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. SHOWERS TAPERED OFF AT YAP AND KOROR SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT IR SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SLOWLY FILLING
IN AGAIN THIS MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED SHOWER COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED AT BOTH LOCATIONS. MODELS STILL SHOW THE DISTURBANCE AND
MONSOON TROUGH LIFTING NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH DRIER WEATHER
BUILDING IN BY WEDNESDAY. FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE
BY WEDNESDAY.

FOR CHUUK...FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE AREA AS THE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH MOVES TOWARD THE MARIANAS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST TODAY AND THEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. SHOWER
COVERAGE HAS BEEN SCALED BACK BASED ON SATELLITE ANIMATION AND
MODEL GUIDANCE. A DRIER PATTERN IN THE EAST WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CHUUK BY WEDNESDAY.

STRONGER WINDS WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
BOATS FOR THE REGION. SIMILARLY...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE STILL
IN EFFECT FOR ALL 3 LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST THIS MORNING FOR PMZ151.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/M. AYDLETT





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