Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 290627
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
427 PM CHST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS...MAINLY IN THE GUAM AND ROTA WATERS. THE VAD
WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 4 TO 9 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST
2 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR WHICH TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AT AROUND 7
THOUSAND FEET. THE WEATHER BALLOON FROM THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ABOVE 30 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS MOVING IN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE MOVED THE ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST EXTENDED THE WAVE
GRIDS. WINDS AND WAVES ARE BENIGN AT THE MOMENT. THEY WILL PICK UP
A BIT ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THEY WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA
ALSO. THE DROUGHT INDEX HAS REACHED 761. ANY FURTHER INCREASES
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN WE RECEIVE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDERWHELMING...BUT IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO HAVE A WETTING RAIN...JUST BARELY. MUCH LIKE THE ONE A
FEW DAYS AGO.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A BAND OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KOSRAE STATE. HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
MOVE INTO POHNPEI STATE. THIS IS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM WHAT GFS
MODEL HAS BEEN INDICATING RECENTLY AND THIS SHOWERY WEATHER MAY
PERSIST ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES FOR A FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH
MOST HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD REMAIN SOUTH OF POHNPEI. WEATHER
REMAINS DRY FOR THE NORTHERN RMI AND THIS DRY WEATHER IS MOVING
TOWARD MAJURO...BUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN RMI IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
YAP AND KOROR...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA SOUTH OF GUAM BETWEEN 10N AND 6N.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF KOROR
AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FOR YAP AND KOROR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR KOROR THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS
YAP STATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CHUUK...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
CHUUK STATE TODAY...BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD YET TRIGGER A
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR CHUUK UNTIL THE PATTERN OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS MOVES TOWARD SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE FROM THE EAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/SIMPSON



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