Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 260609
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
409 PM CHST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS THE
MARIANAS. A FEW CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SAIPAN WATERS FROM THE EAST
IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW BUT SHOWERS REMAIN LIMITED.
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS FOUND WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MARIANAS NORTH OF CHUUK STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE EFFECTS FROM AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE BEGIN TO BE FELT ACROSS THE MARIANAS ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
WITH LIMITING CONVECTION AND WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED COVERAGE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ECMWF STILL BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO
MARIANAS WATERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT GFS AND NAVGEM
SLOWLY DECREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE FEATURE PROGRESSES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. A RETURN TO A DRY EAST TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL RESUME
SUNDAY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY AREAS OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH OF POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE ACROSS THE MAJURO AREA...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING
TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO IN THESE AREAS. A SURFACE TROUGH
MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA FOR
THE NEAR TERM. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
TOWARD NORTHEAST AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER TRADE-WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS TO THE NORTH OF CHUUK. IT HAS BEEN
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD WNW. OTHERWISE AT
CHUUK...PATCHY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE FROM THE EAST BY
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR YAP AND KOROR...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER DOMINATES CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RESIDENTS OF PALAU SHOULD
MONITOR THEIR WATER SUPPLIES AND BE PREPARED FOR VERY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

WILLIAMS/SIMPSON



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