Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 190723
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
451 PM ChST Sun Nov 19 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Moderate trade winds and combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are found
across the Marianas. Satellite shows only a few sprinkles over the
Marianas waters.

&&

.Discussion...
Have changed the timing of mostly cloudy with isolated showers and
thunderstorms to 24 hours later, Wed night and Thursday. This is now
when the GFS shows high enough precipitable water to support the
thunderstorms. Otherwise, it`s still partly cloudy with isolated
showers for the next week.

&&

.Marine...
Seas are settling into the 4-6 ft range this evening, and should
remain there until Tuesday night when they build back to 5-7 feet.
A 3-ft NNW swell should come in Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A trade-wind trough near Kosrae is maintaining showers and
thunderstorms across Pohnpei, Kosrae, and the Marshall Islands. The
latest surface analysis also shows a weak circulation near 4N164E.
Models pick up on the trough and circulation, moving them westward
the next few days, with the circulation eventually dissipating in
Chuuk or Yap State. Wet weather will persist at Pohnpei through
Tuesday and at Kosrae through Monday night. For Majuro, another wave
of showers is expected to arrive on Monday. Slightly drier weather
is expected later in the week, but weak trade-wind convergence will
keep clouds across much of the region.


&&

.Western Micronesia...
A trade-wind surge just northeast of Chuuk will bring showers into
Chuuk waters overnight, but showers will taper off Monday morning. As
a weak circulation near Kosrae moves west, showers will increase
again around midweek. Farther west, conditions have dried out and
similar conditions are expected to persist for most of the week. Weak
trade-wind convergence the next couple of days will generate a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms near Koror while drier weather to
the north persists over Yap.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Middlebrooke/W. Aydlett



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