Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 310650 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
450 PM CHST MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION SECTIONS

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS FUELED BY ISLAND EFFECT
CONVECTION. A MONSOON TROUGH RUNS THROUGH A WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM NEAR 11N143E. ALSO...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL NE
OF SAIPAN IS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 16N157E. VAD
GRADIENT WINDS ARE LIGHT EASTERLY AND BUOYS RANGE FROM 3 FT AT
IPAN TO 5 TO 6 FT AT TANAPAG.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK EXCEPT A MOIST LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.
MOST MODELS INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING BY THURSDAY...BUT ALSO
INDICATE THE WEAK MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 11N-12N WILL EDGE
NORTHWARD AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WAVE GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON WAVE WATCH MODEL AND WIND GRIDS
WERE REFRESHED WITH GFS40 31/00Z OUTPUT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
STREAM LINE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC FROM 15N130E THROUGH WEAK
CIRCULATIONS CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GUAM NEAR 11N143E AND JUST
SOUTHWEST OF MAJURO NEAR 6N171E...THEN HEADS EASTWARD PAST THE
DATE LINE AT 6N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF EASTERN MICRONESIA
MAINLY EAST OF KOSRAE SOUTH OF 8N. THE FRINGES OF DEEP CONVECTION
HAVE MADE PROGRESS OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE WATERS WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON MAJURO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
THROUGH TONIGHT ON KOSRAE. FOR POHNPEI...MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF POHNPEI ALL WEEK SO
OPTED TO LEAVE ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM. ACTIVE
WEATHER IN GENERAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FADE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SKIES LIKELY REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY AS BROAD BUT WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN CONVERGENT MONSOONAL FLOW
ACROSS PALAU AND YAP STATE. THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF YAP OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT REMAIN OVER KOROR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING TRIES TO MOVE OVER PALAU AND YAP STATE FROM THE
SOUTH...ALLOWING DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
MIDWEEK. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON CHUUK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ACTIVITY FROM POHNPEI STATE WILL MAKE IT INTO
CHUUK STATE BY MIDWEEK...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY
ADDING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SIMPSON/WILLIAMS



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