Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 042307
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
845 AM CHST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHY CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. A TRADE-WIND SURGE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AT LEAST TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DRY TRADE-WIND SURGE PERSISTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE WELL...BOTH SHOWING A RATHER DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM TIME TO TIME THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT NO MAJOR WEATHER EVENTS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WINDS AND SEAS...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH TO
STRONG AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMBINED SEAS RANGING FROM 7
FEET TO NEAR 10 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME PARTS OF THE ISLAND RECEIVED BRIEF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE AND CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL REMAIN IN A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A TRADE-WIND SURGE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO KOSRAE SATURDAY
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH THIS
SURGE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI...RESULTING IN ONLY
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THERE FOR THE WEEKEND. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
TO THE EAST OF THE MARSHALLS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND
WILL CONTINUE THIS SLOW DRIFT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE ATOLL THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. MAJURO
WILL SEE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE ATOLL FOR THE WEEKEND.

ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS SEAS LINGERING NEAR 8 TO 10 FEET OVER THE
MARSHALLS WITH HIGHER SEAS REMAINING MAINLY NORTH OF 10N. WAVE
MODELS SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FEET TODAY WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO BETWEEN 7 AND 9 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ARE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER WESTERN
MICRONESIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL THREE FORECAST POINTS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS NORTH OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FOR KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

LATEST ALTIMETRY AND MODEL DATA SHOW SEAS LINGERING AROUND 9 FEET AT
CHUUK TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE ROUGH BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS TODAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST TODAY FOR
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

STANKO/KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON



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