Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 150649
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
449 PM CHST MON SEP 15 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TO
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON TROUGH RUNS JUST SOUTH OF GUAM WATERS WITH A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SLIDING TOWARD THE WEST ALONG IT. THIS IS KEEPING THE
SHOWERS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THAN USUAL. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
FURTHER ENHANCING THE DYNAMICS AND ALLOWING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CELLS TO DEVELOP. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED MOSTLY CLOUDY BY A
COUPLE OF DAYS AND TWEAKED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY.
LATELY WE HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO OPTOMISTIC IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

EAST AND WEST SWELLS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
SEPARATELY...TOGETHER THOUGH THEY ADD UP TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET
COMBINED SEAS. THESE SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY
THEN START TO GRADUALLY DECLINE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH PRODUCED AN
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND
EAST OF MAJURO. THIS AREA WILL EXPAND AND PUSH ACROSS MAJURO
LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS MAJURO THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY.
EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TONIGHT.

PART OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST BECOMING LOCATED BETWEEN
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BE NORTHEAST
AT POHNPEI AND SOUTHEAST AT KOSRAE. LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH AND SO SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED
AT THESE TWO LOCATIONS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY WEST
LOCATING ITSELF WEST OF POHNPEI THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW IT ARCHING
BACK ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
FRIDAY.

MODELS HINT AT A CIRCULATION DEVELOPING ON THIS TROUGH NORTH OF
KOSRAE BY FRIDAY. A FEW MODELS DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN MICRONESIA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW SO WILL LEAVE SHOWERS ISOLATED IN FORECAST FOR THE
THREE FORECAST LOCATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC THIS
AFTERNOON TO A CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF GUAM AND
CONTINUED EASTWARD FAR TO THE NORTH OF CHUUK. CONVERGENCE SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO YAP TONIGHT. THE
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE WEST AND BE NEAR 15N130E ON THURSDAY.
CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BRING CONTINUE THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS YAP THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SAME CONVERGENCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PALAU TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CHUUK. SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CHUUK TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CHUUK TUESDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH CHUUK THURSDAY TURNING
WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS CHUUK
THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AFTER THE TROUGH
PASSES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE
TROUGH SO EXPECT ONLY A FEW CLOUDS WITH IT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/ZIOBRO







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