Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRNK 222009
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
309 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area through Friday. A cold
front will cross the area this weekend, but be more a wind
maker, rather than a precipitation maker. High pressure returns
to the area for the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Wednesday...

High pressure was centered over eastern Kansas with its associated
ridge axis extending northeast into the Great Lakes region.  Low
pressure was located off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula with an
associated cold front trailing south to off the coast of the
Carolinas. The pressure gradient between the high and the low has
kept our winds gusty today. Winds will subside heading into the
evening hours thanks to both a slackening pressure gradient and the
development of the nocturnal inversion.

Clear skies prevailed across the vast majority of the forecast area,
and that trend will continue overnight and into Thanksgiving Day as
the Central Plains high shifts eastward. The exception to this rule
is the cloud cover that still exists over parts of southeast West
Virginia, more specifically, western parts of Greenbrier County and
a good portion of Summers County. The clouds here are all that
remain of what was a larger swath of clouds over southeast West
Virginia, and neighboring sections of southwest Virginia during
the course of today. The prevailing gusty northwest flow has
helped to maintain these remaining clouds. With winds expected
to decrease, these clouds are not expected to exist too long
after sunset.

Overnight, with winds becoming light, clear skies, and lower
dew point air working its way into the area, anticipate
temperatures to fall significantly. Lows tonight will be close
to the coldest of the season so far. Anticipate lows around 20
degrees to the lower 20s across the mountains with mid to upper
20s across the Piedmont.

For Thanksgiving Day, expect plenty of sunshine with light and
variable winds. Temperatures will not be as warm in the east
thanks to the loss of compressional warming today`s downslope
winds provided. Highs across the Piedmont will range from around
50 degrees to the lower 50s. Across the mountains, more
sunshine to start the day, as compared to today, plus building
geopotential heights will allow for temperatures milder than
those of today. Highs of the upper 40s to around 50 degrees are
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Upper flow will become zonal across the eastern U.S. during the
short-range period with high pressure to remain centered across the
southern/central Appalachian region Thursday night. Mainly clear
skies and temps near to slightly below normal with lows from upper
20s to low 30s. Some mixing possible west could keep temps up some
along ridges overnight. High shifts off the east coast Friday with
decent SW flow setting up and making for a nice day with highs in
the 50s most areas. The NAM continues to advertise a stronger and
further NW solution with developing low pressure along the SE U.S.
coast Friday night into Saturday with clouds and measurable precip
into our SE zones. Latest SREF also shows measurable (a few
hundredths) amounts in the far SE early Saturday morning so cannot
rule out of thinking completely. But the last few runs of global
models, including 12z/22 GFS/EC along with WPC guidance have
maintained a completely dry forecast, holding measurable QPF well to
our southeast and will thus will continue with that trend for this
package. With some high clouds and milder return flow expect Friday
night lows will be somewhat milder, mainly 30s. Milder temps
continue on Saturday ahead of the next front with 50s to low
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Wednesday...

Northern stream amplifies briefly yet again later in the weekend as
a short-wave tracks well to our north through southeast Canada. This
will usher in another cold front through the area early Sunday,
knocking back highs 10 degrees or more from Saturday, generally low
40s NW to low 50s SE. Precipitation will be hydrologically
insignificant with this front with only a few upslope showers or
snow flurries possible. Temps will drop off into the 20s Sunday
night. This will be followed by an expansive ridge of surface high
pressure for the early part of next week with temps rebounding
upward roughly 5 degrees Monday-Tuesday. The only hint of possible
precipitation at this point appears to be Wednesday as another front
approaches, but this too looks quite moisture-starved. No end in
sight for what is turning into a very dry month of November.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Wednesday...

The last of the MVFR/low end VFR strato-cu continues to
dissipate over portions of southeast West Virginia. KLWB is the
last terminal to report the cloud cover with skies scattering
there currently via satellite imagery. As high pressure begins
to nose into the region, look for little if any cloud cover the
next 24 hours, post-dissipation in the far west. Also, winds
will be on the decrease that from sunset this evening through
the remainder of the valid TAF period light and variable winds
are expected. Until then, gusts of 15 to 25 mph will be common
at most terminals until a little after sunset. The only sub-VFR
conditions expected may be some brief, light fog around KBCB
early Thursday morning.

Extended Discussion...

High pressure will provide for primarily VFR conditions
Thursday afternoon through Friday.

Guidance from one model is hinting at precipitation and sub-VFR
conditions may impact the area Friday night into Saturday thanks
to a coastal low. This is an outlier at this point, and high
pressure continue to control our weather pattern is more
probable.

A cold front will cross the area this weekend. Currently it is
looking moisture starved, and may be more of a wind maker for
the area. Anticipate gusty winds Saturday into Sunday in the 15
to 25 mph range for most areas, higher gusts at higher
elevations.

High pressure returns on Monday with weaker winds, and no
precipitation forecast.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...DS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.