


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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402 FXUS63 KSGF 182247 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated non-severe thunderstorms through the evening. Some storms may be very efficient rainmakers. - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect from 12 PM Saturday through the middle of next week. Daily Heat Index values in excess of 100 degrees and warm overnight lows will result in an extended period of heat danger. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Another hot summer day today with afternoon highs near 90 and humidity resulting in Heat Index values near 100. A few widely scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the evening, with better chances to the east. A few of our easternmost counties are included in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms by the SPC for the off chance of a severe wind gust. Thunderstorm coverage will be limited, as updrafts are struggling against some atmospheric subsidence. The column is incredibly moist - so moist that it may be inhibiting the potential for severe winds as the steep lapse rates associated with drier air are absent. Tonight will be warm with lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will build into the area over the weekend, bringing primarily clear, hot weather. The last earnest chance for rain left in the forecast period will be Saturday morning and early afternoon as a mesoscale complex rides over the ridge of high pressure, primarily through St. Louis`s CWA. The far reaches of this system may clip our north- northeasternmost counties and could be severe. This would be relatively short-lived and very, very localized. The vast majority will see another hot, dry day tomorrow. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for the entire CWA beginning at noon on Saturday and extending through 7 PM on Wednesday of next week. It is important to stay updated on this product throughout its duration for any changes to the heat hazard, including extension or early expiration, as the situation evolves. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Currently, the expectation is for daily afternoon Heat Index values to exceed 100 degrees for the majority of the area every day through at least the middle of next week. Warm low temperatures at night will offer little relief from the daytime heat. Precipitation potential is expected to be very low for the remainder of the forecast period. The name of the game for the next ~week is heat safety and heat illness prevention. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 543 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the entirety of the TAF period. Southerly surface winds will increase Saturday morning after 16Z at KSGF and KJLN, with sustained winds between 10-12kts at both sites, and periodic gusts up to 20kts at KJLN. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Melto