Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 181949
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
149 PM CST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Cloud cover was breaking up nicely across extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks this afternoon. Temperatures
responded by warming into the 50s amongst southwest breezes.

For tonight, light southerly winds will keep temperatures in the
40s, setting up another warm day on Tuesday with highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)

A warm air advection pattern will continue through Friday as a
storm system organizes out west. Temperatures will warm into the
upper 50s and lower 60s on an afternoon basis through Thursday.
Little rain chances exist Wednesday and Thursday. Although the
exception would be some showers Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning along the Arkansas state line.

A powerful cold front then pushes through on Friday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF are trending toward a drier frontal passage. We
left some low pops in the grids, however, confidence is greater
for a dry frontal passage for Friday.

Beyond Friday and Saturday, another speed max approaches the area
by Sunday. We have low confidence at this time as to what this
will do. The GFS has trended toward dry conditions on Sunday,
however, the ECMWF has a swath of QFP across southern and central
Missouri. We`ll monitor future model data for Sunday`s period to
evaluate our possibilities.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of Springfield and Joplin will be dealing
with a couple hours of lower ceilings this afternoon. However,
ceilings at all airports are expected to clear out by mid
afternoon. Branson airport is already experiencing mostly sunny
skies.

Winds will continue from the southwest at 5 to 15 mph. No
precipitation is expected over the next 24 hours, however, low
ceilings are expected to move back in early Tuesday morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Cramer



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