251
FXUS63 KSGF 152241
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances through the
  end of the week. While severe weather is not expected,
  lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Temperatures climb back to around 90 by midweek, continuing to
  gradually increase into the lower 90s through the weekend.
  Heat index values will gradually increase this week, reaching
  the 100-105 degree this weekend into early next week.

- Temperatures and heat index values gradually trending upward,
  possibly becoming hazardous by this weekend and especially
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Continued isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, similar to previous days this week. Main
hazards will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall due to slow
storm motion. HREF LPMM values highlight potential for very
localized rainfall amounts up to 2-4 inches.

For tonight, mostly dry with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Wednesday looks very similar to today as far as precip hazards
go, with isolated to scattered showers and storms. Precip looks
to be most focused along and southeast of I-44. Main hazards
are lightning and locally heavy rainfall, along with very
isolated flooding.

Thursday looks to have increased chances/coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, along with an outside shot at severe weather.
Morning convection north of the area may drop into the CWA, but
the evolution is low confidence. A front drops into the area in
the afternoon as instability is on the rise and shear is
increasing. Quite a bit of uncertainty based on how morning
convection/cloud cover evolve. Think severe risk would be
marginal at best given current guidance.

Friday into Monday: Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe
storms will decrease in coverage and probability through this
time range as an upper high builds into the region.

Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80s to around 90 through
Thursday, then increasing this weekend into next week as an
upper high builds into the region. By the weekend, look for high
in the low to mid 90s with heat index values of 100-105.
Similar, or slightly warmer, conditions are possible early to
mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the entirety of
the TAF period. South-southwesterly surface winds will begin to
pick up Wednesday morning, with sustained winds between 10-12kts
at KSGF and KJLN, and gusts up to 18kts through the afternoon mainly
at KJLN. Otherwise, some isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible (20-30%) once again tomorrow afternoon at KBBG
beginning as early as 19Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Melto