Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 302244
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
544 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...00Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday night)

Another fabulous day was observed over the Ozarks as temperatures
warmed into the 80s. Sunny skies and southerly breezes helped
boost these temperatures into the above average category from a
seasonal standpoint.

For tonight, there is a possibility of some showers or storms over
eastern Kansas and far western Missouri. We think most locations
will remain dry, and severe weather is certainly not expected
tonight.

As we advance into Wednesday, some of the hiRes models are
focusing convection north of Highway 54 through the day. The
global models signal precipitation further south into southern
Missouri. We have decided to lean our forecasts closer to the high
resolution models, thinking most of southern Missouri will remain
rain free heading into Thursday morning.

The reasoning for that regards the placement of the height falls
and front, being further to the north and west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

We have inserted the mention for tornadoes within our severe
weather outlook for Thursday afternoon and evening.

Deep moisture will continue to transport into the Ozarks,
underneath an approaching storm system from the west. This feature
will force a round of robust thunderstorms on Thursday.

Even with the uncertainty involved with potential warm sector
convection contaminating instability Thursday morning, we think
shear strength and structure appears favorable for well organized
storms. This shear combined with dew points in the upper 60s to
near 70, warrants a mention for tornadoes. Particularly with
expected low level CAPE with this type of airmass.

Models suggest all convection will move east of the Ozarks by
Friday morning, giving way to dry and mild weather through the
upcoming weekend.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday may not warm out of the 60s,
with overnight lows falling into the low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 542 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Convection developing across Kansas should remain north and west
of the terminals through the next 24 hours, with VFR conditions
expected at SGF, JLN, and BBG through at least tomorrow afternoon.
A steady south to southeast breeze is expected through the night
tonight, with gusty SW winds then developing during the mid
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell






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