402
FXUS63 KSGF 182247
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
547 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated non-severe thunderstorms through the evening. Some
  storms may be very efficient rainmakers.

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect from 12 PM Saturday
  through the middle of next week. Daily Heat Index values in
  excess of 100 degrees and warm overnight lows will result in
  an extended period of heat danger.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Another hot summer day today with afternoon highs near 90 and
humidity resulting in Heat Index values near 100. A few widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the
evening, with better chances to the east. A few of our easternmost
counties are included in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms by
the SPC for the off chance of a severe wind gust. Thunderstorm
coverage will be limited, as updrafts are struggling against some
atmospheric subsidence. The column is incredibly moist - so moist
that it may be inhibiting the potential for severe winds as the
steep lapse rates associated with drier air are absent.

Tonight will be warm with lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure
will build into the area over the weekend, bringing primarily clear,
hot weather. The last earnest chance for rain left in the forecast
period will be Saturday morning and early afternoon as a mesoscale
complex rides over the ridge of high pressure, primarily through St.
Louis`s CWA. The far reaches of this system may clip our north-
northeasternmost counties and could be severe. This would be
relatively short-lived and very, very localized.

The vast majority will see another hot, dry day tomorrow. An Extreme
Heat Warning has been issued for the entire CWA beginning at noon on
Saturday and extending through 7 PM on Wednesday of next week. It is
important to stay updated on this product throughout its duration
for any changes to the heat hazard, including extension or early
expiration, as the situation evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Currently, the expectation is for daily afternoon Heat Index values
to exceed 100 degrees for the majority of the area every day through
at least the middle of next week. Warm low temperatures at night
will offer little relief from the daytime heat. Precipitation
potential is expected to be very low for the remainder of the
forecast period. The name of the game for the next ~week is heat
safety and heat illness prevention.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the entirety of the TAF
period. Southerly surface winds will increase Saturday morning
after 16Z at KSGF and KJLN, with sustained winds between
10-12kts at both sites, and periodic gusts up to 20kts at KJLN.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday
     for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Melto