Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 190356
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1056 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...06z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

The region witnessed another sunny...seasonably mild day with
more of the same in store for tomorrow. Temperatures that climbed
well into the 70s today will warm another 3 to 5 degrees on
Thursday as the surface high slips a bit farther southeast and
southerly flow increases under zonal flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Heights will continue to build on Friday as an upper ridge forms
over the lower Mississippi Valley.

12z models very similar to 00z ECM in kicking a lead short wave in
the southern stream eastward into the forecast area. Question
initially exists on the quality of moisture though would expect to
see at least isolated showers and perhaps some weak thunderstorms
with the warm advection associated with this initial wave.

Attention then turns to a long wave trough that will dig deep
along the Rockies Friday and advect into the Plains on Saturday.
SPC`s placement of their Day 4 15% severe risk over portions of KS/OK
eastward to along the Missouri border looks ideal given the quick
decrease in MLCAPE depicted by the 12z medium range models.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will however continue through
our forecast area into Sunday.

As this system moves off to the east...another short wave will
drop into the trough on Tuesday. Not much more than widely
scattered light showers should be expected with this system Tuesday
into Wednesday...though it will be much cooler with highs
struggling to get into the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR conditions will continue with mostly clear skies and light
southerly breezes around 10 knots or less over the next 24 hours.
There are no aviation concerns with this TAF update.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Griffin



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