Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 041931
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
231 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A few showers have developed over extreme south central MO this
afternoon in an area of instability near the mid level shortwave.
Not much else across the CWA with fairly flat cumulus field
elsewhere with drier and less unstable air mass there. Fair
weather appears to be short-lived however with another unsettled
and potential setup for more heavy rain and flooding next week.
The forecast focus will be centered on this potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

May see some residual pop-up showers over south central Missouri
through early evening, but otherwise looks like a dry night for
fireworks viewing across the CWA.

May see a little bit of convection over the southwest CWA very
light tonight into Sunday with a shortwave dropping southeast out
of the Plains, but most areas are expected to remain dry through
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

By Sunday night, a strong upper level wave will begin pushing
through the northern into central Plains with a frontal boundary
moving into the upper Mississippi valley into the southern Plains
from northeast to southwest. This front will slowly progress
southeastward on Monday with showers and thunderstorms starting to
push into the northwest CWA and eventually spreading across the
remainder of the area on Monday night. Both the GFS/ECMWF bring in
heavy rain to the area, but the ECMWF continues to paint a bad
picture with continued chances of thunderstorms and heavy rain
through much of the week as the front continues to meander through
the area as a series of shortwaves move through the westerly flow
aloft. PW values are forecast by the GFS to be in the 1.75 to 2.0
in. range throughout the week. With the recent significant
flooding from this week, would anticipate that we would need
another flash flood watch at some point upcoming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

Generally, VFR conditions are expected through the period. There
may be MVFR skies at times and perhaps an isolated shower near the
BBG terminal, however, didn`t highlight given the relatively low
potential for either. Skies should begin to clear overnight at all
aerodromes. That will open up an opportunity for fog at BBG again
Sunday morning. At this point decided to go the conservative route
and kept it in MVFR conditions, however, if winds indeed calm and
skies clear...IFR conditions cannot be ruled out.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Frye






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