Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 241637
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
935 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Weak troughing over the west will bring quiet weather through the
weekend. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than average, and the
marine layer will become a little deeper. Early next week an upper
ridge builds over the Southwest for hotter weather and a shallower
marine layer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A trough over the West will keep temperatures a few degrees below
average this week. Friday looks to be the coolest day when the
trough axis sweeps across Southern California. The marine layer will
deepen through Friday with low clouds possibly spreading into the
western sections of the Inland Empire. This pattern will also keep
the monsoon shut down over Southern California for the foreseeable
future.

Extended outlook Sunday through Wednesday: A large model spread
exists between the GFS and the ECMWF. The GFS projects a broad, east-
west oriented ridge over the Southwest early next week for warm/hot
days early next week. The ECMWF is weaker with the ridge, and
quicker and deeper with a second west coast trough that flattens the
ridge next Tuesday and Wednesday. This is reflected by the cooler
ECMWF MOS that is 5-10 degrees lower than the GFS MOS for next
Tuesday and Wednesday. Have trended closer to the GFS at this time
and have kept temperatures a little above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
241530Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds, with bases 1100-1500 ft MSL
and tops near 1600 ft MSL, will slowly clear towards the coastal
waters by 17Z. Low vis of 3-5 sm BR/HZ will improve to P6SM by late
this morning. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and
evening, then stratus with slightly higher tops and bases will
develop along the coast tonight and push around 25 SM inland by
early Thu morning.
VIS of 2-4 SM BR is expected inland where low clouds near higher
terrain. Forecaster confidence is medium to high.

Mtns/Deserts...Few cumulus clouds over the mountain ridges this
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly clear with unrestricted VIS through Thu
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Sunday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation will not be needed today.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Moede
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT



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