Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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044
FXUS66 KSGX 090522
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
922 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LESS WINDY
BUT CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
RECORD HIGHS. SLOW COOLING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN
TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

IT IS A MILD MID-WINTER EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHLAND WITH EASTERLY
BREEZES CONTINUING ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS. AT 8 PM PST...WINDS
WERE 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS 35 TO 45 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW
SANTA ANA WIND-PRONE PASSES AND CANYONS. DEWPOINTS WERE VERY LOW...
KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE.
THE 00Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD A SFC-BASED INVERSION AND A DEEP LAYER
OF EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 MPH.

THE MEGA-RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN N.A. IS PEAKING IN AMPLITUDE THIS
EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY DEFLATE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE
PROCESS WILL BE GRADUAL THOUGH...KEEPING OFFSHORE FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS SOCAL FOR VERY DRY AND MILD WEATHER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BREACH RECORDS IN MANY AREAS ON TUE...WITH A FEW MORE POSSIBLE ON
WED. IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AT TIMES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS WEAKENING FURTHER ON THU.

THE LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF/GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE OFF
THE PACIFIC THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...ANY PRECIP IS
UNLIKELY...BUT IT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BUMP IN HUMIDITY WEST OF THE MTS.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL NOT LAST AS SFC WINDS TURN BACK OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AS THE WAVE PASSES AND HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTPAC
ALONG 30N NOSES EAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH ABOUT TUE. BY MID
WEEK...MOST OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. SOME PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE AS THIS SWINGS THROUGH...
BUT IT IS ABOUT TEN DAYS OUT WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
090330Z...AREAS OF EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT GUSTS 25-40 KT WILL
OCCUR THROUGH 18Z TUE MAINLY ON WEST/SOUTHWEST MOUNTAIN
SLOPES/FOOTHILLS AND BELOW CANYONS IN THE VALLEYS...INCLUDING VCNTY
KSBD...KBUO...KRAL...KRNM...KCZZ. AREAS OF LLWS WILL ALSO OCCUR...
INCLUDING VCNTY KONT...KSNA AND KCRQ THROUGH 23Z TUE. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
730 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY EAST-NORTH EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCAL STRONGER GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND TEN
PERCENT AND WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CREASTE NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN THE SANTA
ANA WIND-PRONE AREAS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...NO
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT OR ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL



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