Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 240443
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING SLOW INLAND WARMING AS THE MARINE LAYER
BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRATUS HAS FILLED IN NEARLY EVERYWHERE FROM THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS
WEST TO THE COAST...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WERE OCCURRING EAST OF SAN GORGONIO PASS AND IN
THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WAS MOVING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...AND THIS WILL BRING ONE LAST POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH MOSTLY LIGHT. 00Z NAM IS SHOWING JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY. 00Z WRF IS SHOWING EVEN SMALLER AREAL COVERAGE. WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MOSTLY DUE
TO THE MARINE LAYER BEING AROUND 7000 FEET DEEP...THOUGH MOST OF THE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS ABOVE THE MARINE
LAYER...NOT IN THE MARINE LAYER.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE MARINE
INVERSION SHOULD REORGANIZE AT A LOWER LEVEL AND END THE MOUNTAIN
STRATUS AND FOG. THE MODELS INDICATE THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE
AROUND 2000-2500 FEET DEEP BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. WITH THE MARINE
LAYER REORGANIZING...WE COULD HAVE RELATIVELY FEW LOW CLOUDS FOR
AWHILE SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE IT REDEVELOPS AGAIN LATER THAT NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR OFF THE SO-CAL COAST
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WED. AFTER
THAT...WE WILL HAVE A WEST COAST RIDGE FORMING...THE FIRST ONE IN
SEVERAL WEEKS...SO MOUNTAIN/DESERT TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE TO
LEVELS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THU/FRI...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALL WEEK AND BRING NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS TO COASTAL
AREAS...AND WITH A STRONGER INVERSION AND THE TIME OF YEAR...PARTIAL
AFTERNOON CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST ANY DAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
240300Z...LOW CLOUDS...WITH VARIOUS BASES FROM 2300 TO
5000 FT MSL AND SOME TOPS NEAR INLAND LOCATIONS OF 8000 FT
MSL...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE INLAND AREAS
REMAIN SCT/BKN.

WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35-45 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOD-STG UDDFS
AND LLWS OVER AND EAST OF THE MTNS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
800 PM...3FT/16 SEC SOUTH SWELLS WILL ARRIVE
SUNDAY...PEAK MONDAY AND GRADUALLY LOWER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME ELEVATED SURF IN ORANGE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SEE THE BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
     SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...JJT


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