Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 040920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A seasonable weather pattern will continue to prevail
across the forecast area with showers embedded in the trades at
times as well as some locally induced afternoon showers across
west Puerto Rico.


.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies prevailed across the local islands
overnight and early this morning with showers observed mainly over
the regional waters. Winds were light and variable with coastal
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

A seasonable weather pattern will continue to prevail under a mid
level ridge and low level moisture above the normal range. Moisture
advection will continue at times as a surface high builds north of
the area, pushing remnants of an old frontal boundary over the
area. Therefore, showers embedded in the trades are expected at
times each day with the potential for locally induced afternoon
convection. As the high builds north of the area, winds are expected
to increase and shift northeast. Due to the lack of forcing associated
with the ridge aloft and building high north of the area, afternoon
convection is expected to be shallow and focused across west and
southwest Puerto Rico each day. The aforementioned weather
pattern is expected to prevail much of this week. Due to already
saturated soils, sharp raises along small streams and rivers still


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites through
at least 04/16z. Brief periods of MVFR conditions with mountain
obscurations can be expected over TJMZ from 04/16z through 04/22z.
Low level winds will be mainly east at 10 kts except for sea
breeze variations in coastal areas.


.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will continue across the
regional waters today. Mariners can expected winds 10-15 kt and
seas of 2-4 feet across most of the waters. As a result... A low
risk of rip currents is forecast for most of the beaches in PR and
USVI. A 6-foot northerly swell is expected to invade the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean passages Monday night into Tuesday.


SJU  87  77  87  76 /  20  20  20  40
STT  87  77  86  77 /  20  20  20  20




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