Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 020214 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1014 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS SHOWERS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS FLOOD
ADVISORIES...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR NUMEROUS COASTAL
MUNICIPALITIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS
EVENING BUT LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS STILL DEPICTED AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...MOVING
SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER...
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE NOT SEEN UNTIL NEXT
WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDS FM NRN LEEWARD
TERMINALS THRU USVI/EASTERN PR TIL 02/06Z...BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR
ERN PR...DUE TO LOW SCUD CLDS AND PASSING -SHRA. CLD LYRS...
SCT025...BKN060...BKN120 WITH GRADUAL CLEARING AFT 02/06Z. FEW TCU/
ISOLD TSRA/CB EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARD...AND N AND S OF
PR ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE. MOSTLY VFR AFT 02/14Z. WND
FM E BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TOMORROW...LINGERING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
A TROPICAL WAVE JUST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE BACK SIDE OF
THE WAVE WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WAVE IS THE BEST MOISTURE
THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DIURNAL
INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE
NOT SEEN UNTIL FRIDAY NEXT WEEK...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF SAHARAN DUST WERE
SEEN IN THE AREAS OF DRIER AIR...BUT THE BULK OF THE DUST IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJSJ...TJMZ AND
POSSIBLE TJBQ THRU 01/23Z AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. MAINLY VFR WITH FEW TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK WITH VCSH ACROSS TIST AND TISX. EAST WINDS BLO
FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 15
KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  78  93 /  50  40  20  10
STT  80  88  79  88 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72



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