Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 300354
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
954 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL TAKE HOLD BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA AS
OF LATE THIS EVE BUT THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MOST
SHOWERS PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN THRU THE AFTERNOON AND LOCAL FLOODING
OCCURRED IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF THAT
HELPED THE CONVECTION TODAY REMAINS SHEARED ACROSS NRN UT WITH
SUFFICIENT LIFT TO KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA THRU THE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE
NORTH OF ABOUT I-80. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS GREATLY
REDUCED BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW AREAS WHERE SMALL BUT
INTENSE RAIN SHOWERS CREATE LOCAL HEAVY RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING.

WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WED WITH SOME
DRYING BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TO ALLOW STORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN AND DRIFT OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTN.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE WEAK SYSTEM FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THRU THU
NIGHT AND FRI. THE LATEST GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AND WOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION THU AFTN AND LESS DRYING THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED.

HAVE UPDATED FORECASTS TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THRU MIDNIGHT BUT
RAISED THEM SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTH AFTER THAT. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AT THE SLC TERMINAL. WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
BY AROUND 05Z BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL NOT
SWITCH UNTIL 10-11Z. SHOWERS COULD CROSS THE TERMINAL AT TIMES
AFTER ABOUT 05Z TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN IF A SHOWER
PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SHOWERS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.