Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 011144
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
344 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2015

.Synopsis...
Light precipitation possible in far northern portions late today
through Tuesday night. Above normal temperatures still expected
next week. Night and morning fog possible in the Central Valley
today into early next week. Increasing confidence in wet pattern
returning late in the week.

&&

.Short Term Discussion (Today through Wednesday)...
A weak system will move into the Pacific Northwest today. The
tail end will skirt the far northern sections of the state and may
bring a little precipitation through Tuesday to the northern half
of the Sacramento valley and surrounding mountains. The flattening
ridge and increase in high cloud cover will result in several
degrees of cooling over our forecast area today, generally 5-10
degrees.

For the Sacramento region and areas southward expect conditions to
remain dry with patches of night and morning fog through the central
part of the valley with variable mid to high cloudiness.

The disturbances move through by Wednesday, pumping up the ridge
in their wake before troughing takes hold again late in the week.
JClapp/JHM

&&

.Extended Discussion (Thursday through Sunday)
No major changes in the models for the extended period continues
to lend confidence toward a return of wet weather for much of the
region later this week.

Ridge of high pressure still forecast to shift east into the
Rockies late this week as trough over the Gulf of Alaska edges a
bit closer. Models continue to forecast a period of very moist
southwesterly flow into NorCal late in the week and next weekend
(TPW plume in excess of 1.5 inches).

Heaviest QPF still forecast over northwest California with a shot
of decent precipitation likely extending south to around I-80
Friday into Saturday as strong upper jet noses onto the west coast
and IVT increases to well above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions across interior NorCal except for local MVFR/IFR
in the Central Valley from KSMF southward until about 17Z. Lighter
north to east winds today compared to 24 hours ago. Disturbances
passing to the north will bring increasing mid and high clouds
with shower chances limited to the northern mountains.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$







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