Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 241704
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
904 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2014

.Synopsis...
High pressure strengthens as it moves into the West Coast today
and brings mild and dry weather through Thanksgiving with above
normal temperatures. Rain will likely return to the region by
Friday/Saturday and continue into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Patchy fog that developed in the Valley early this morning is
quickly dispersing. Some lingering mist will remain for another
hour or so, especially in the northern San Joaquin Valley.

Dry weather with more sun and milder temperatures expected for
today. Forecast looks on track, no update needed. The warming
trend continues through mid week, with no travel concerns except
for occasional morning fog.

The pattern changes on Friday, with a shortwave beginning to
spread precipitation into the area from northwest to southeast
through the day. Most precipitation should be north of I80 until
Saturday. This system should be initially mild with relatively
high snow levels. Sunday could be more of a concern for holiday
travelers, though, as snow levels appear to drop below pass levels
as the main trough moves through. The GFS, ECMWF and GEM are all
pointing towards a wet and cool pattern Sunday into early next
week. Stay tuned for further updates! EK


.Extended Discussion (Friday through Monday)

Models similar in spreading initial precip with a warm front into
interior NorCal on Friday as upper ridge flattens and shifts east.
Still some differences between the EC and GFS on timing the cold
front shifting inland Saturday as the models differ on when the
upstream trough will dig down from the Gulf of Alaska which will
affect impacts inland. Showery precip with lower snow levels
expected to continue into early next week as the upper trough
moves overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions for today into early tonight as high pressure
remains in control. Northerly winds will generally be light under
7-8 kts. Valley fog expected again late tonight into Tues morning
with MVFR and possibly IFR/LIFR visbys under clear skies and light
flow.

&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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