Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 251019

319 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2014

Daytime temperatures will remain near to several degrees above
normal through the coming week. The Sierra crest will see a threat
of thunderstorms Sunday through much of next week and possibly as
far north as the Shasta County mountains on Wednesday.


.Short Term Discussion...
Most areas will see a little warming today as a large high
pressure ridge over the southern U.S. builds westward. With the
marine layer squashed down to below 1000 feet and stable southwest
flow aloft over the north state...skies are clear this morning.
Most locations will see a degree or two of warming today putting
highs near to a few degrees above normal. Just a bit higher
temperatures are expected on Saturday under a slightly warmer
airmass. A more southerly flow aloft develops on Sunday as a weak
trough approaches the coast. Precipitable water proggs show
monsoon moisture just starting to move into the southern CWA and
stability proggs show a slightly unstable environment along the
Sierra crest. Therefore...still including afternoon thunderstorm
threat for this area. Precipitable water proggs show moisture
pushing just a bit farther north on Monday so edged the t-storm threat
northward up the Sierra as well. Overall airmass stays about the
same so kept high temperatures fairly constant Sunday and Monday.
However, surface pattern shifts a bit more onshore Sunday and
Monday so near delta areas may see a slight cooling.

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

Medium range models depicting little change through the extended
period as upper ridge axis over the western U.S. remains over the
Great Basin while upper troughing remains over the eastern
Pacific. Monsoon moisture will continue to feed northward in
southerly flow aloft over the state. Stability proggs show best
threat of afternoon convection over the Sierra crest Tuesday and
over areas north of the CWA. A small scale trough clipping the
northwest corner of the state may bring the afternoon thunderstorm
threat southward into the Shasta county mountains on Wednesday.
Models show a more southwest flow aloft on Thursday which may keep
any thunderstorm threat mainly north and east of the forecast area
Thursday through Friday. For the remainder of the forecast
area...Fair skies are forecast with continued above normal



VFR conditions with generally light winds the next 24 hours.



.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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