Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 220955
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. A FEW LINGERING STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BRUSHING NORTHERN NEVADA WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA NOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND
FLAGSTAFF WITH NOTHING IN OUR FORECAST AREA. HRRR SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL GET ANOTHER EARLY START (BY 10 AM) OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY REMAIN. IT WILL BE MUCH QUIETER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS SOME DRYING
AND STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS OCCURS. FOR FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. ON SATURDAY, THE ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS ARE ACROSS
NORTHEAST LINCOLN AGAIN NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT. ELSEWHERE, DRYING
FROM THE WEST WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HI RES MODELS ALSO SHOWING A WEAK DOWNSLOPE EVENT
ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES SAY BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO THE START EACH DAY WHILE DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AFTER FLYING SOLO LAST NIGHT, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF RETURNED BACK TO
A PROGNOSTICATION MORE SIMILAR TO WHAT IT HAD BEEN SHOWING ON
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PUTS IT IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH HOW IT HANDLES THE UPCOMING PATTERN.
THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO UTAH BY TUESDAY.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS WAS MORE SHALLOW WITH THE TROUGH THAN THE
GEM AND ECMWF SO THE FORECAST SHOWS A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO. UNLESS
THIS TROUGH ENTRAINS ENOUGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO IT, IT SHOULD
PASS ON BY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCED WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD BE HELD DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS, BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A RIDGE ALOFT
IS SHOWN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD YIELD A WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS EDGING BACK TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. THIS RIDGE
EITHER LOOKS TO GET STRETCHED OUT OR SHUNTED EAST BY FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES ACROSS NORCAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA. EITHER WAY, THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY GREAT SIGN FOR
MONSOON MOISTURE TO MAKE A RETURN BACK ON IN, SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED CONS MODELS WITH A
LITTLE ECMWF AND MEX MOS MIXED ON IN.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. DRIER AIR ARRIVES TODAY ALTHOUGH
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL START TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY WITH ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.
&&

$$

PIERCE/STACHELSKI

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