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000
FXUS65 KVEF 252151
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEVADA TUESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER ACROSS EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM ELSEWHERE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...BEFORE A TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS. FOR THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
WINDS LOOK BORDERLINE FOR THE NEED OF A WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE SO THERE COULD BE THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY AT
THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

COORDINATED WITH ELKO AND SALT LAKE CITY TO INCREASE POPS MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLEST DAYTIME HIGHS WILL COME TUESDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. (LAS VEGAS NORMAL HIGH IS 93 DEGREES.)

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR
TROUGHINESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT OVERALL ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT. WITH
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING A WEAKER WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE WILL BE
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MOHAVE COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL BE LOCATED IN SOUTHERN IDAHO ON
THURSDAY...PLACING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY AS THE MAIN LOW SHIFTS TO
THE EAST. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES OCCUR AMONGST THE MODELS BY
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY LOOKS TO EFFECT THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ON AVERAGE 4
TO 6 DEGREES BELOW THEIR SEASONAL NORMS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TOWARD SUNSET...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE TIMES WHERE THEY LULL. WINDS SPEEDS IN THE UPPER TEENS
WILL LESSEN TO THE LOWER TEENS AROUND 03Z. SIMILAR WINDS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE TEENS AND GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
20S.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 KTS
THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING FURTHER IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER SUNSET.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT MARGINALLY WEAKER
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS...THE EXCEPTION BEING KDAG WHERE WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 25K FEET AT TIMES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. VERY LOCALIZED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DID MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ARIZONA ZONE 102
AND NEVADA ZONE 462. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUNDAY. FOR THAT REASON...NO PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED
FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

PIERCE/CZYZYK

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