Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 301013
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
313 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER UTAH AND
NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOHAVE COUNTY. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEARLY ALL THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS DIED OFF AS OF 230
AM THIS MORNING. ALL THAT REMAINS IS WEAK RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED
WITH A REMNANT MCV CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF LAUGHLIN MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST. THESE RETURNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AFTER WHICH THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
TODAY WITH A FAIRLY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT WAS SEEN YESTERDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS (GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH)...WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF
HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DUST AVAILABLE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...WHICH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE MARGINAL
RISK AREA BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TODAY. FLOW/STORM MOTION
WILL AGAIN FAVOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THEN
MOVING INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. ELSEWHERE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.

MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT A WEAK WAVE COULD HELP KEEP SOME ACTIVITY GOING (OR START IT UP
AGAIN) OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A
CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST
NEVADA AND OREGON IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE IS AN INDICATION BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF THAT A WEAK WAVE MAY MOVE UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY WHICH COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A DRYING AND SLIGHT STABILIZING TREND AS THE
HIGH CENTER MIGRATES ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. THIS WILL BRING
SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO EAST CENTRAL
NEVADA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTHWEST ARIZONA ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UP THROUGH INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD WELL ABOVE NORMAL UNLESS CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS BECOME A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE THURSDAY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THE HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY INDEPENDENCE DAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A
FASTER PATTERN SHIFT THAN WAS INDICATED 24 HOURS AGO AND IT WOULD
OPEN THE DOOR FOR ANY MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THERE IS NOT MUCH INDICATION YET OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND I
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
ARES AND NOT MENTION THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT FOR
NOW. THE GFS SOLUTION INDICATES SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME DRIER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. THE GFS INDICATES THIS
DRYING TREND MORE THAN THE ECMWF AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
OF THESE SUBTLE CHANGES. I WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH THIS PATTERN BUT WILL
REMAIN HOT...WITH HIGHS STILL AROUND 105 FOR LAS VEGAS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A TYPICAL
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WHEN SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
THE TERMINAL.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, INYO AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. MAINLY SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15K FEET WITH BASES AS LOW AS 6K-
10K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WINDS SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS.
&&

.CLIMATE...THE JUNE RECORD OF 18 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER WILL LIKELY BE TIED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE ALL-
TIME RECORD STRETCH OF 21 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A HIGH OF 105
DEGREES OR GREATER IS ALSO IN JEOPARDY IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
RECORD STANDS AT 21 DAYS AND HAS BEEN SET FOR TIMES...MOST RECENTLY
IN 2000.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............ADAIR
CLIMATE...............STACHELSKI


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