Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 242255
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY...PLEASANT WEATHER AND
A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT STORM MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATING
FEATURE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY THEN WARM ANOTHER
4-6 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD THERE THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THICKER CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
SATURDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
COOLING TREND ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS 2-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AT SOME POINT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL TIMING
DIFFERENCES AND RECENT PAST PERFORMANCE ON JUST WHEN THE STORM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE...LEAVES THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WOULD BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD
PRIMARILY BE A MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY STORM. EITHER WAY,
MODELS AGREE THIS COULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM, WITH REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THAT THE AREA HAS SEEN SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS UNDER 8KTS GENERALLY FAVORING
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL SOUTHWEST UP TO 10KTS
AFTER 02Z. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING IN THE
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-15 KTS EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...RETURNING TO TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF WINDS...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SALMEN

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