Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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591
FXUS65 KVEF 020602 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SURROUNDING AREAS MONDAY ENHANCING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE
AREA BRIEFLY DRIES OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER POTENT
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...SKIES HAVE GENERALLY CLEARED OVER CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN CALIFORNIA
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AREA WE ARE LIKELY NOT TO CLEAR OUT COMPLETELY...BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. GRIDS LOOK GOOD THIS EVENING.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SKC-FEW CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND
8-10K FEET MONDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 18Z WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 7 KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 10K FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
WINDS UNDER 10KTS. ISOLD SHRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER
18Z MONDAY WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
235 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS TOWERING OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS HAVE RESULTED IN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SUBDUED
ELSEWHERE BUT SOME CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AROUND THE AREA AND SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THOSE AREAS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DROP OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THEN MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AND INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND CONSIDERABLE VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE
MORE MONDAY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. POPS WERE INCREASED A LITTLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT MOST VALLEYS AND DESERTS NORTH OF I-40 ALSO
STANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE. CONVECTION WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING AS THE WEAK LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND WARMING
ALOFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A BROAD
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE CLIMBING 4-6
DEGREES MONDAY IN SPITE OF THE WEEK DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY, PROVIDING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH WINDS WILL USHER IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SPIN INTO A CLOSED, CUTOFF LOW ON
THURSDAY AND GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, EVEN LONGER IF THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION
PANS OUT. WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST THURSDAY. MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. TOUGH
TO TELL WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS THE
FASTER SOLUTION THIS MORNING, WHILE THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE LOW
OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 24 HOURS AGO, THE GFS WAS THE FASTER
SOLUTION. THE MEAN FROM BOTH THE GEFS AND NAEFS ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF, YET WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM...ADAIR
LONG TERM...PADDOCK
AVIATION...PULLIN

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