Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 241621
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
921 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO
THE SIERRA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...RAISED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY. BAND OF SHOWERS WAS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY...AND HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MOJAVE PRESERVE THIS AFTERNOON. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
252 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT WILL BY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY 5 AM THIS MORNING AND
THEN OUT OF OUR HAIR BY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS IN THE SIERRA,
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND POSSIBLY THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY
INTO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY. AS THIS WHOLE CONGLOMERATION OF
WEATHER MAKERS MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SIERRA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
PERSISTS, WARMER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR...IF NOT A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY AND THEN APPROACH
NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 70S IN VEGAS ARE
OVER FOR AWHILE AND AFTER ONLY A FEW BRIEF DAYS IN THE 80S,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT
IN HAVING A RELATIVELY WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LINGERING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL WARRANT AFTERNOON SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN INYO AND GREAT
BASIN ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL
EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A RATHER AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA TO CONTINUE A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RUN 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH
MOST DESERT LOCALES RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS...LIKE DEATH VALLEY...RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 100S.
WHILE IT CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY THAT LAS VEGAS WILL BE ONE OF
THE LOCALES APPROACHING THE CENTURY MARK THIS WEEKEND...DETAILS IN
THE FORECAST...INCLUDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...NEED TO BE RESOLVED AS THEY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN HOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES GET. AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD INCREASE MIXING AND INCREASE
CHANCES OF THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE YEAR FOR LAS VEGAS. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEK AS THE FINER DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS GENERALLY 8-10K FEET. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10KTS THROUGH 15Z THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE TURNING BACK THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE NORTH AND EAST OF LAS VEGAS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY MAINLY ACROSS
INYO...NYE...ESMERALDA AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES
SOUTH. ANY SHOWER/TSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO 25KTS. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10-20KTS WITH CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...PULLIN

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