Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 281627
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
926 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions along with gusty north winds are
expected today. High pressure will move into the region tonight
bringing lighter winds and slightly warmer temperatures on
Wednesday. Another storm system will bring strong winds and some
precipitation chances to the area Thursday and Friday.
&&

.UPDATE...Dry northerly flow continues over the area this morning.
Winds will continue to decrease in most areas today but still seeing
some decent gusts. Will let the advisory for most of the area
continue until the 11 am expiration. Strong winds are expected to
persist down the Colorado River Valley through this evening and the
advisory is valid there until 8 pm. Some thin high clouds will move
into the area from the north while the lower clouds over Mohave
County had dissipated or moved east. Updated to decrease sky cover
in Mohave County as 12z model data indicates moisture continuing to
decrease there today.  -Harrison-
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

Upper low currently over central Arizona has left a dry northwest
flow over the region this morning. Gusty winds still occurring over
much of the area with a few locations still gusting over 40 mph.
Although widespread gusts over 40 mph are not expected will leave
the wind advisory in place through 11 AM as we could still see some
minor issues from the winds. Strongest winds are expected down the
river and although winds will gradually diminish late this morning
and early afternoon, the winds down the river will likely continue
through much of the afternoon before dissipating this evening. High
pressure will then move into the region late tonight and Wednesday
with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds over much of the
area. Some gusty winds will likely persist down the river, but will
remain below advisory levels.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

By Thursday morning, shortwave ridging will be giving way to a
compact but powerful upper level low that will dig across the
forecast area late Thursday through Friday. This is expected to
bring strong winds to the region Thursday afternoon through Friday.
Intermodel differences remain regarding the strength and placement
of this next system. Currently the GFS (and GFS-derived) models
indicate the strongest winds of any guidance - upwards of 60kts at
850mb according to the latest BUFR soundings with a vertically
aligned wind field. Other models such as the NAM and ECMWF have
differing, but somewhat weaker solutions. The bottom line is
relatively high confidence in advisory level winds, but below
average confidence in warning level winds. In any case, winds are
likely to be stronger than those seen Monday and with the potential
for a high-impact system the decision was made to issue a High Wind
Watch for much of the region for Thursday. The Watch currently
extends through Friday for the southern Great Basin where strong
north winds could linger as the low center slows and wraps up as it
approaches the Four Corners region. As the low moves through the
region Thursday/Friday it will likely bring some weak shower
activity east of the US-95 corridor, similar to Monday.

As the low pushes east on Saturday, north winds will linger down the
Colorado River Valley potentially continuing the threat of hazardous
boating conditions.

By late Saturday and Sunday, model agreement really falls off.
There`s likely to be at least a short (12-24hr) reprieve from the
wind before additional waves move toward the region Sunday/Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty north to northwest winds will
persist through much of the day with gusts around 30 kts. There
could be some high gusts this morning, but winds will gradually
diminish this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly clear.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty northwest to north winds will impact much of the
area today with winds generally 20-30 kts. Stronger winds expected
down the Colorado River where gusts could approach 35-40 kts. Winds
will gradually diminish during the afternoon. Skies will remain
mostly clear.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Gorelow
Long Term...Wolcott

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