Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 301231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only background flare activity observed
this period.  Region 2570 (N11E47, Bxo/beta) showed signs of decay late
in the period and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over the next
three days (30 Jul-01 Aug).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels with a chance for high levels over the next three days (30 Jul-01
Aug).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at
background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).  The solar wind speed
steadily decreased from an initial value near 600 km/s to around 475
km/s by the end of the period.  Total field strength values were steady
around 5 nT and Bz varied between +/- 4 nT.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels
through late on day three (30 Jul-01 Aug) when the CME from 28 Jul is
anticipated to arrive, causing an enhancement in the solar wind
environment.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under waning CH
HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(30 Jul) and mostly quiet on day two through late on day three (31
Jul-01 Aug) under a nominal solar wind regime.  Active conditions are
likely late on day three (31 Aug) due to the anticipated arrival of the
28 Jul CME.


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