Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 010030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2376 (N13E57,
Eao/beta-gamma) rotated further onto the visible disc and SDO/HMI
magnetograms showed some magnetic mixing in the trailing spots. The
region produced a pair weak C-class flares; a C1/Sf at 30/1243 UTC and a
C1 at 30/2211 UTC. Region 2374 (N10W29) decayed and lost its spots.
Region 2373 (N15E41, Cao/beta) underwent some minor growth, but was
inactive and remained in a fairly stable bipolar configuration. Region
2375 (S10E56, Hax/alpha) decayed slightly into a single unipolar
penumbral spot. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed on available LASCO imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (01 -
03 Jul) primarily due to the slightly higher flare potential of Region
2376.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 9,670 pfu observed at 30/1725 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.


.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (01 - 03 Jul). 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels over days one through
three (01 - 03 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds were
variable between about 360 to 425 km/s. IMF total field strength ranged
between 1-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 6 nT. The phi
angle was in a predominately positive (away) solar sector until after
30/1400 UTC when the angle changed to a mostly negative (towards)
configuration before it became variable between sectors after about
30/2200 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly nominal on days one
through thee (01 - 03 Jul). A minor enhancement may be reflected from
the influence of a very small positive polarity coronal hole late on day
one (01 Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through
three (01 - 03 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are possible
in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole on day one (01
Jul).



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