Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Sep 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels with a few B-class flares
observed from Regions 2593 (N07W78, Bxo/beta) and 2597 (S13W19,
Dsi/beta-gamma). Region 2593 showed overall decay as it neared the west
limb. Region 2597 exhibited decay and consolidation within its
intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class
flares throughout the forecast period (25-27 Sep).


Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 341 pfu observed at 24/1605 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one and two (25-26 Sep) of the forecast period.
Moderate to high flux levels are expected on day three (27 Sep) due to
an enhanced solar wind environment from a geoeffective CH HSS. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were generally at background levels. Total
magnetic field strength ranged from 3 - 11 nT. The Bz component
exhibited a sustained period of southward Bz to -6 nT from 24/1700 UTC
to 25/0300 UTC followed by another southward excursion to -10 Bz from
25/0830 UTC to 25/1030 UTC. Solar wind speeds were fairly steady at an
average of about 370 km/s. Phi was oriented in a negative sector with a
brief positive orientation late in the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is likely to undergo a minor enhancement in
density and total field strength late on day one (25 Sep) from an
anticipated SSBC. A further enhancement is likely on day two (26 Sep)
from the onset of a recurrent, trans-equatorial, positive polarity CH
HSS. Influence from the CH HSS in likely to subside through day three
(27 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels with the exception of an
isolated active period followed by an isolated minor storm (G1-minor)
period during the interval 25/0000-0600 UTC. This enhancement was due to
a period of sustained southward Bz from 24/1700 UTC to 25/0300 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the remainder of day one (25 Sep) with an anticipated SSBC is expected
late on day one. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on days two
and three (26-27 Sep) due to the onset of a recurrent, trans-equatorial,
positive polarity CH HSS that will enhance the near-Earth space
environment.


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