Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 141231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M1/1b at 13/1524 UTC
from Region 2497 (N12W43, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 2497 was also
responsible for numerous C-class flares during the period. Slight growth
and consolidation occurred in Region 2497, particularly in its larger
intermediate spots. New Region 2500 (S18W36, Bxo/beta) was also
responsible for a C1 flare at 14/0121 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (14-16 Feb) due
primarily to the flare potential of Region 2497.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one through three (14-16 Feb). There is a slight
chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor)
levels over the next three days (14-16 Feb) due to the complexity and
position of Region 2497.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speeds
between 362 km/s and 456 km/s.  Total field decreased from 10 nT early
in the period to near 6 nT while the Bz component was mostly north
between +9 nT and -5 nT.  Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a
positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected reflect diminishing influence of a
subsiding CH HSS until the arrival of an anticipated 11 Feb CME late on
day one (14 Feb). Enhancements in Bt and solar wind speeds are expected
to persist through day two (15 Feb) and wane as day three (16 Feb)
progresses.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
until late on day (14 Feb) when minor storm levels (G1-Minor) are likely
to accompany the onset of the 11 Feb CME. Minor storm levels (G1-Minor)
are likely to persist into day two (15 Feb) as the CME effects persist.
CME effects are expected to subside to quiet to active levels as day
three (16 Feb) progresses.


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