Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 190031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to moderate levels. A M6/2N (R2-moderate) flare
occurred at 18/2158 UTC from Region 2241 (S09E04, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta).
There was also an eruptive prominence observed simultaneously
off the southeast limb. An associated Type-II (estimated speed of 664
km/s) was observed during this time frame. No CMEs have been observed
with either event yet, though more analysis will be conducted as imagery
becomes available. Region 2242 (S18W16, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta)
also appeared to contribute to X-ray flux counts. Region 2242 continues
to display an east-west oriented magnetic inversion line. The remaining
regions on the visible disk remained stable and mostly inactive. A faint
filament was observed lifting from the southeast limb at around 18/1000
UTC, though no resulting CME has been observed with that event yet
either. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed
during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels for the next three days (19-21 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242
continue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic
structures. A chance also exists for an isolated X-class event
(R3-Strong) during the forecast period.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (19-21 Dec). There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the
potential for a proton producing solar event from Regions 2241 or 2242.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, continued to reflect nominal
ambient background conditions. Solar wind speeds were steady near 380
km/s, the total field fluctuated slightly between 5 nT and 8 nT, and the
Bz component ranged between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle remained unchanged,
steady in a positive (away) orientation for the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at ambient background
levels for the majority of day one (19 Dec). Disturbed solar wind
conditions are anticipated beginning mid to late on 19 Dec and
remaining through the period, due to the anticipated arrival of a
glancing blow from the CME associated with the M8 flare observed on 17
Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (below
G1-Minor) for the majority of day one (19 Dec). Unsettled to active
conditions are expected to begin late on 19 Dec, with a chance for
isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor) early on day two (20 Dec), due
to the arrival of the CME associated with the M8 flare observed on 17
Dec. Conditions should wane over day three (21 Dec), with unsettled
to active conditions expected.


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