Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Aug 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 2581 (N11E42,
Cro/beta) remained simple and inactive. Of the other three numbered
regions on the visible, all were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance for C-class
flares on day one (25 Aug) and a slight chance for on days two and three
(26-27 Aug).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The 2 MeV electron flux to be at normal to moderate levels on day one
and two (25-26 Aug) due to CH HSS effects. Day three (27 Aug) is
likely to see an increase to moderate to high levels. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all
three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested
the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic
fields strength ranged from 4-6 nT. Solar wind speeds were between
500-550 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in the negative (towards
the Sun) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to gradually trend towards ambient
conditions from their elevated states over the next two days (25-26
Aug). Near-background conditions are expected by day three (27 Aug).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active conditions early in the period,
decreasing to quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to remain at quiet to unsettled levels
over days one and two (25-26 Aug) under the influence of a waning CH
HSS. Quiet conditions are to expected on day three (27 Aug) as an
ambient solar wind regime returns.



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