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FXXX12 KWNP 140031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Occasional C-class flares were
observed from new Region 2434 (S08E74, Cao/beta) to include an impulsive
C9 event observed at 13/1411 UTC. As Region 2434 is still rotating onto
the disk, accurate sunspot and magnetic classification is difficult to

Region 2432 (S21E17, Cro/beta) developed a few leader and trailer spots
with rudimentary penumbra forming on the leader spot. Region 2433
(N19W69, Dri/beta) added a few intermediate spots and exhibited minor
growth in the leader spot. Both regions remained quiet during the
period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in
available LASCO imagery during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be low with an increasing chance for
M-class activity (R1 to R2 - Minor-Moderate) during the next three days
(14-16 Oct). This increasing chance is due to the potential for
significant flare activity from new Region 2434 along with old Region
2422 (S17, L=103), expected to rotate onto the disk late on 15 Oct. On
their previous transits across the disk, new Region 2434 produced four
R1 (Minor) events while old Region 2422 produced a total of 16 R1
(Minor) and two R2 (Moderate) events.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 10,091 pfu observed at 13/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from moderate
to high levels through the forecast period (14-16 Oct) due to coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) winds. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested
continued enhancement from the large, positive polarity coronal hole.
Solar wind speeds began the period at about 500 km/s, gradually
increased to near 620 km/s by about 13/0530 UTC, before leveling off to
an average of about 525 km/s through the remainder of the period. Total
field (Bt) measurements ranged from 2-8 nT while the Bz component was
variable between +/- 7 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominately
positive (away from the Sun) sector until just before 13/2100 UTC when
it switched to a negative (towards) orientation through the end of the

Solar wind parameters are expected remain enhanced through the forecast
period (14-16 Oct) as effects from a geoeffective, positive polarity CH
HSS persist.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under enhanced solar
winds from a geoeffective, positive polarity CH HSS.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels
with periods of minor storm intervals (G1-Minor) all three days of the
forecast period (14-16 Oct). This activity is due to effects from a
geoeffective, positive polarity CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.