Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 241231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Sep 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2681 (S13E25, Hsx/alpha) was quiet
and stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on days one through three (24-26
Sep).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 2,143 pfu at 23/1930 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to decrease to moderate
levels on day one (24 Sep) with the arrival of a CIR in advance of a
negative polarity CH HSS.  An increase to high levels is expected by
days two and three (25-26 Sep).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels.  Solar wind speed was
steady, starting the period near 380 km/s and ending at approximately
340 km/s. Total field peaked at 6 nT while the Bz component dropped to a
low value of -4 nT. Density values were on the rise towards the end of
the period, indicating a possible CH onset.  Phi angle was oriented in a
mostly positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on days one and
two (24-25 Sep) with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.  A slow
decrease to nominal levels is expected on day three (26 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
days one and two (24-25 Sep) with quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(26 Sep) due to CH HSS effects.



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