Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 211231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2171 (S10E46, Dac/beta-gama)
and Region 2172 (S11E68, Dao/beta) were the only regions to produce any
notable flare activity. Region 2171 produced a C1 flare at 20/1254 UTC
while Region 2172 produced a pair of C1s at 20/1714 UTC and 21/0151 UTC,
respectively, and a C2 flare at 21/0714 UTC. The largest flare of the
period, a C5 flare at 21/1153 UTC, appeared to originate from Region
2166 (N11W48, plage). Slight growth was observed in both regions during
the period. Region 2171 also exhibited an increase in magnetic
complexity to a beta-gamma configuration as magnetic mixing was observed
in its intermediate spot area. An approximately 38 long filament,
centered near N25E12, was observed lifting off the visible disk in
SDO/AIA 304 imagery from 20/2348 - 21/0427 UTC. As Lasco coronograph
imagery is received from the SOHO spacecraft, additional analysis will
be conducted to determine of any of the mass actually escaped from the
corona and, if so, if any component was Earth directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with slight chance for an M-class
flare (R1-Minor)for the next three days (21-23 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (21-23 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (21-23 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was still being influenced by a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Total field was
relatively stable near 5 nT to begin the period, declining slightly
throughout the day to end-of-period values near 3 nT. The Bz component
saw a maximum southward deflection near -5 nT early in the period before
becoming mostly positive, with occasional oscillations to near -2 nT,
through the remainder of the period. Solar wind speed began the period
near 480 km/s, increased to a peak speed of 636 km/s, before decreasing
to near 530 km/s by the end of the period. Phi angle was mostly in a
negative (towards) sector through approximately 21/0800 UTC when it
experienced a boundary change to the positive (towards) sector, where it
remained through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to become less enhanced through day
one (21 Sep) as CH HSS effects wane. Solar wind conditions are expected
remain at nominal levels for day two and through most of day three
(22-23 Sep). By late on day three, a potential solar sector boundary
crossing, observed during the previous rotation as well as in STEREO B
Mag and Plastic data, could cause a slight enhancement of the magnetic
field.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period
from 21/0300 - 0600 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance
for active periods on day one (21 Sep) due to lingering CH HSS effects.
A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on day two (22 Sep).  By
late on day three (23 Sep), a potential solar sector boundary crossing
is expected to cause quiet to unsettled conditions with a chance for
active levels through the end of the period.


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