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FXXX12 KWNP 220031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 2149 (N12E77) produced the largest
event of the period, an impulsive M3/Sf solar flare at 21/1331 UTC. This
region was the most active during the period, also producing a C7/Sf
flare at 21/1904 UTC. Neither event were believed to have associated
CMEs. Region 2146 (N10E07, Cso/beta) continued to grow during the period
and was initially believed to be responsible for two potential CMEs
earlier in the day. Both events were the result of low level flares that
straddled the onset of the period. The first was a C2/Sf which occurred
the period prior at 20/2348 UTC. The second was a B8/Sf that occurred at
21/0848 UTC. However, neither a definable halo signature in LASCO, nor a
plasma cloud in STEREO could be observed. At this time, no discernible
Earth-bound transients can be detected from either event. The remaining
regions were stable, inactive, and unremarkable.

Solar activity is likely to be low for the next three days (22-24
Aug).  A chance for an M-class flare exists during the period, as a
result of Regions 2146 and 2149.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached moderate levels again while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for days one through three (22-24
Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters observed at the ACE spacecraft indicated the
continued waning of the CME observed leaving the Sun on 15 Aug. The
total magnetic field decreased from near 12 nT at the beginning of the
period to near 4 nT.  Bz remained sustained negative, as low as -7 nT,
until 21/2100 UTC. Phi rotated slowly from positive to a negative
orientation over the period.  Solar wind speed at ACE roughly averaged
340 km/s over the period.

The solar wind environment is expected to reflect waning CME
characteristics through the first few hours of day one (22 Aug). A
return to mostly nominal conditions is expected for the remainder of day
one, and over days two and three (23-24 Aug).


.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Unsettled to active conditions may mark the first few periods of the
onset of day one (22 Aug), as CME effects fully wane. The remainder of
day one as well as days two and three (23-24 Aug) should see a full
recovery to predominantly quiet conditions. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.