Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FGUS71 KILN 161814

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
214 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...Near Normal Flood Risk through March 30...

Normal flood potential means at least some flooding is possible.
Above normal flood potential means more widespread flooding is
possible with some points possibly reaching moderate or major
flood levels.

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in
winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on
current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

The factors considered when determining flood potential include
current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for
the period, water equivalent in any snow pack, soil moisture
and expected precipitation.

Very little to no snowfall covered the region.

Streamflow was generally near normal for mid March for nearly all
of the area, though some flows in the Whitewater Basin in eastern
Indiana were representing below normal values. Precipitation
across the upper Whitewater valley has been below normal for the
past 30 to 90 days.

Only light icing existed on area rivers.

Soil moisture per measurements form the Natural Resources
Conservations Service and modeled soil moisture for the region was
generally near normal for mid March.

Area reservoirs were operating at optimum flood control capacity,
with lake levels at winter flood control pool level.

While much of the past winter was characterized by below normal
precipitation and streamflow, early March rainfall brought minor
flooding and wet soil conditions. More recently, predominately dry
weather and cold temperatures has diminished flood risk.

While light rain and snow showers are expected across the region
in the first several days of the outlook period, precipitation is
expected to be generally light and is not expected to pose a flood
threat. Thus the flood potential for the first week of the outlook
period is below normal.

For the second week of the outlook period, the Climate Predition
Center 8 to 14 day outlook is a slight probability of below normal
temperatures to near normal temperatures, with a slightly higher
probability of above normal precipitation. This increases the
flood risk for the second week of the outlook period.

Real time river information and forecasts for specific locations
along rivers across Central and Southern Ohio...Northern Kentucky
and Southeast Indiana can be found at


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