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FNUS28 KWNS 062022
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

VALID 081200Z - 141200Z

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA AND
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH D4/THU AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE ROCKIES.  A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA ON D3/WED...SPREADING ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGH
AT LEAST D6/SAT.  MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP
WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH D7/SUN.

...D3/WED AND D4/THU: SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
AS RIDGE BREAKDOWN ENSUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING GEOPOTENTIAL
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEST COAST DISTURBANCE AND THE STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THIS OCCURS...INSOLATION/MIXING WILL PROMOTE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AMIDST A DRY AIR-MASS WITH STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INCREASING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THE
AREA.  WETTING THUNDERSTORMS IN PRECEDING DAYS AND THE PRESENCE OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS MAY PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
LARGER FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND CURRENT 40 PERCENT DELINEATIONS
REPRESENT HIGHEST PROBABILITY THAT AT LEAST POCKETS OF NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD OF CONCERN.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR...BUT FORECAST PROFILES
INDICATE MORE OF A LIKELIHOOD FOR WETTING STORMS SHOULD THEY
OCCUR...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY DRY THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
IN THIS FORECAST.

...D3/WED: NORTHERN ROCKIES...
AS THE REGION ENCOUNTERS GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST COAST
DISTURBANCE AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTENING...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN PARTS OF IDAHO AND MONTANA...AND
PERHAPS EASTERN WASHINGTON DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST TEMP/WIND/RH PROFILES IN THE REGION SUGGEST THAT MOST
STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE WETTING RAINS GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
EXIST WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT OCCUR OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM CORES...WHERE DRY/CURED FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE
STARTS AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN IDAHO.  GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO COMPLICATE ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS.

..COOK.. 07/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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