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FNUS28 KWNS 262134
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING EAST THIS WEEKEND. RELATED TO THIS RIDGE
BREAKDOWN...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING STRONGER MID-LEVEL WEST/SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO THE REGION.

...D4/FRI-D7/MON -- GREAT BASIN/PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN LATE THIS WEEK...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. IN TANDEM WITH THIS
PROGRESSION...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT NORTH/EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DECREASING HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL ALSO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANTECEDENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE
RECEPTIVENESS OF FUELS ACROSS THE REGION...FURTHERING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUCH THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE 10-PERCENT
AREAS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED WITH MINOR CHANGES.

FURTHERMORE...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
COMBINE WITH DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE TO ENHANCE THE FIRE-WEATHER
THREAT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS FOLLOWING PERIODS OF
DRY-THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION. IN TURN...THE 40-PERCENT /MARGINAL/
AREAS ARE MAINTAINED D5/SAT-D6/SUN AND ANOTHER IS ADDED FOR D7/MON.
ONGOING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH EVOLUTION
PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE TO 70-PERCENT /CRITICAL/ AT THIS TIME.

..PICCA.. 07/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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