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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 252039
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...PORTIONS OF THE SW STATES AND CNTRL GREAT BASIN EWD TO THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR MID WEEK.

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SURROUNDING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER PARTS OF THE WRN UNITED STATES FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WHILE A RIDGE PERSISTS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN CONUS
AND ADJACENT WRN NORTH ATLANTIC. STRONG AND GENERALLY SWLY FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES OVERLYING DRY SFC CONDITIONS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER RISK EACH DAY FROM D3/MON
THROUGH D7/FRI ACROSS BROAD AREAS AS VERTICAL MIXING STRENGTHENS ON
A DIURNAL BASIS. SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY/MIDDLE PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM ADVANCES SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
PACIFIC. CRITICAL AREAS HAVE BEEN OUTLINED EACH DAY FOR D3/MON
THROUGH D6/THU FOR PARTS OF THE REGION...FOLLOWING THE LATEST
MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING GEFS OUTPUT.

ON D3/MON...A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS NERN
NM...THE TX PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE
OK PANHANDLE. THIS THREAT WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL
WIND SPEED MAXIMUM FORECAST TO TRAIL SW OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS. ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC AS STRONG SWLY WINDS
YIELDING DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED HEATING/DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
CRITICALLY LOW SFC RH.

D4/TUE...THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS A
LARGER AREA COMPARED TO THAT ON D3/MON...WITH AFFECTED AREAS ON
D4/TUE INCLUDING PARTS OF ERN AZ...NM...SRN CO...AND FAR SWRN TX.
STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WRN-STATES TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF
OVERLAP OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH.

FOR D5/WED AND D6/THU...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN NM AND SRN CO EWD TO A DRYLINE
FORECAST TO LIE N/S ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
STRONG DEEP FLOW W OF THE DRYLINE WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP DRY AIR
AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS TO SUPPORT STRONG SFC WINDS/LOW SFC RH ACROSS
THE CRITICAL AREAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE
POSITION OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH WILL MODULATE THE ERN EXTENT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS SUCH...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ERN
BOUND OF CRITICAL DESIGNATION MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CRITICAL AREAS...ELEVATED TO
BORDERLINE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY
LOCATIONS EACH DAY FROM D3/MON THROUGH D7/FRI. HOWEVER...LIMITED
CONFIDENCE IN ANY MORE THAN LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION INSTANCES OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND/OR THE PRESENCE OF REGIONS OF
UNFAVORABLE FUELS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE FIRES CURRENTLY
PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ADDITIONAL CRITICAL AREAS AT THIS TIME.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER DEEP FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MAY BECOME
DISPLACED TO THE NE OF DRY SFC CONDITIONS AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS RENDERS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG SFC WINDS TO OVERLAP WITH DRY SFC
CONDITIONS FOR D8/SAT.

..COHEN.. 05/25/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
