Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FNUS28 KWNS 312018
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 021200Z - 081200Z

IN THE MID LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO A MULTI-STREAM...GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK...AS OCCASIONAL PERTURBATIONS MOVE ONSHORE
FROM THE E PACIFIC. WITH SUFFICIENT SUBTROPICAL AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE WRN STATES...THESE DISTURBANCES
WILL REINFORCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WEST -- AIDED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE DRY...WITH
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE EDGES OF
RAIN CORES. HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO LOW PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATIONS...MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT
WILL STRONGLY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AREAS WHERE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A DRY-THUNDERSTORM MODE.
ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LIMITED STORM MOTIONS AND PW VALUES OVER
0.75 INCH COULD SUPPORT STORMS WITH WETTING RAINS IN MANY AREAS. AS
SUCH...PROBABILISTIC DELINEATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH ARE
NOT FORECAST TO COMBINE IN SUPPORT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

..COHEN.. 07/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.