Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 300729
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM
AND THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TX...NM...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST AZ...

...Synopsis...
A strong midlevel cyclone and accompanying band of intense
tropospheric flow will gradually spread eastward across the
Southwest States. Antecedent dry surface conditions from portions of
the Southwest States to west and south TX will overlap with strong
to very strong winds in support of areas of substantially enhanced
fire-weather potential.

...Portions of the Southwest States to west and south TX...
Across the Extremely Critical area, southwesterly surface winds of
30-35 mph and higher gusts are forecast to combine with RH of 5-10
percent amid very dry fuels. This will occur as deep mixed layers
extend into the intense flow aloft.

Within the surrounding Critical area, southwesterly to west-
southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph are forecast to combine with RH
around 5-15 percent (lowest RH across southeast NM and far west TX)
amid dry to very dry fuels.

Winds will turn more westerly and perhaps west-northwesterly across
the Critical and Extremely Critical areas during the late afternoon
and into the evening/overnight. This wind shift could redirect any
ongoing fires.

Elevated to borderline-critical fire-weather conditions are expected
across the surrounding elevated area extending from portions of the
lower CO River Valley to portions of west and south TX. Critical to
near-critical RH is expected across many of these areas. Winds will
range from westerly at 15-20 mph across western parts of the
Elevated area, to southerly/south-southeasterly at 15-20 mph across
eastern parts of the Elevated area (east of a sharpening lee trough
amid initially limited moisture return). However, strong winds are
not expected to occur on any more than a brief/spotty basis.
Furthermore, less-favorable fuels for fire spread may mitigate the
overall fire-weather potential north of the Critical area across
parts of northern NM and vicinity.

..Cohen.. 03/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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