Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 141844
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z


...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/NERN ORE...SMALL PORTION OF NRN CA AND NWRN
NV...
ISOLATED DRY TSTM RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED NEWD TO INCLUDE
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NERN ORE...TO ACCOUNT FOR NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION POTENTIAL PRIMARILY OVER THE BLUE MTNS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING PARALLEL
TO THE COAST...WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION AIDING IN ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. DRY LOW-LEVEL
AIR E OF THE CASCADE RANGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY. THE COMBINATION OF A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER...FAST STORM
MOTIONS...AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TOTALS.

..ROGERS.. 09/14/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0355 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  THE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INLAND IN THE
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NNEWD ACROSS NWRN CA...WRN OREGON
AND WA.  WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS.

NO LARGE SCALE WIND OR LOW HUMIDITY AREAS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF INLAND AREAS OF SRN CA WILL CONTINUE HOT WITH LOW HUMIDITY WHERE
FUELS ARE VERY DRY.

...SMALL PORTION OF NRN CA AND PORTIONS OF SWRN/SCNTRL OREGON...
FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA WHERE ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY.  HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IT ALSO
REMAINS WARM TO HOT WITH LOW HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE NNEWD ALONG THE COAST OF WA/OREGON AND WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY OF 300 TO 500 J/KG MUCAPE AND DRY LOWER
LEVELS... ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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