Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 021924
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN NV...

PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN NV HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO CRITICAL
DESIGNATION OWING TO THE ANTICIPATION OF SWLY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
AND LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS COMBINING WITH RH VALUES AROUND 11-14
PERCENT AS VERTICAL MIXING DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE/FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WHICH REFLECT STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE ADDED CRITICAL AREA ON THE SRN EXTENT OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS...AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST MONTH
OVER MANY LOCATIONS...A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN ADDED.
OTHERWISE...VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WRN BOUND
OF THE ELEVATED AREA IN NV AND VICINITY BASED ON THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING STRONGER-WIND/REDUCED-RH POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF
THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 09/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN ON D2/THU SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR TO D1/WED...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NWRN CONUS...AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE EWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS...
BUT WILL PROBABLY MAKE ONLY A SLOW SEWD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NRN
GREAT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
REMAIN CENTERED OVER WRN CO. ENHANCED LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES MAY HELP ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOME OF THIS REGION THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE ON D2/THU FROM
CNTRL NV NEWD INTO NWRN UT AND PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL WY. ACROSS
THESE STATES...ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 25-40 KT SHOULD
ENCOURAGE SFC WINDS OF 15-25 MPH BY THU AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...RH VALUES SHOULD LOWER TO 15-20 PERCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS OF BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS
AND SFC RH VALUES SUGGEST LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THU
AFTERNOON...AND A CRITICAL DESIGNATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER
UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN RH VALUES REMAINING BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A SUFFICIENT LENGTH OF TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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