Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 041654
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1154 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

                      VALID MAY 4 THROUGH MAY 9

...CALM AND CLEAR INTO THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure has begun to push over the area shoving out
all precipitation along with it.  The next few days will allow East
Texas to dry out from recent rainfalls before sytems can return over
the area.  The longer we can maintain the ridge and sunshine the
more we can allow rivers to drain into the Gulf and the soils to dry
a little bit in the upper soil levels.

The next system that looks like it will dig south into the Texas
region could get some light precipitation going out in West Texas on
Saturday.  Many ingredients still need to formulate for the forecast
to be fully understood but expect moisture to be available out in
front of this system and allow for precipitation to develop Sunday
into early next week, with the severe weather potential higher
earlier in the period and the heavy rainfall threat in the later
part of the event.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches of
rainfall are possible for West Texas.

Soils are now very moist across a good part of the state, especially
the eastern portions. Texas is now categorized as being 13%
abnormally dry, with 2% in the moderate drought category. Over New
Mexico, almost the entire state remains in the abnormally dry
category, and 44% is in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Multiple locations on the upper Sabine River are currently receding
from recent rainfall as water continues to translate downstream.  This
routed water is forecast to cause the Sabine River at Gladewater
(GDWT2) to rise to major flood levels.  Downstream, other sites remain
elevated, continuing to rise into minor and moderate flood levels
impacting local roadways and agriculture.  Toledo Bend has recently
increased their releases.  This will also cause minor and moderate
flooding downstream at various locations.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Recent rainfall in the upper half of the Neches River Basin has  pushed
numerous forecast points into minor and moderate flood levels.  Lakes
remain full with flood storage being released from Sam Rayburn
Reservoir.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All sites in recession at this time with some remaining in action stage
for the next few days.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Heavy rain has slowed the recession within action stage for Sweeny
(SWYT2) but should be below action stage now.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Minor to major flooding continues in the Trinity River basin as flood
flows reach the mid to lower basin.  As the lower basin flows subside,
flood control reservoirs well continue to release stored floodwaters.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows continue on the lower Brazos River
due to recent heavy rainfall, but all locations are currently forecast
to stay below flood stage. Flood control reservoirs are slowly
releasing their flood waters keeping the mainstem of the Brazos below
Lake Whitney well above base flow.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the WGRFC area, but a little break
from rainfall is expected for the region. Next shot at significant
rainfall will be this weekend.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

GIARDINO


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