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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
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AGUS74 KFWR 201555
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1054 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

                     VALID MAY 20 THROUGH MAY 25

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A well advertised upper level storm over the Central Plains will
gradually slide east and weaken over the next several days.  The
broad upper level trough of low pressure over the WGRFC area will
also move east, and a weak upper level ridge will build into the
region by Wednesday.

These features will aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms.  A well defined dry line over West Texas will push
east throughout the day Monday.  This dry line could provide
enough lift, enhanced by peak daytime heating, to generate
thunderstorms.

A subtle change Tuesday could lead to a significant rain
event for Texas later Tuesday into Wednesday.  A strong upper level
disturbance associated with the trough is expected to cross Texas
late Tuesday.  With ample moisture in place, an organized complex of
thunderstorms is possible.  Locally heavy rainfall is possible for
the central portions of the Brazos River north and east toward the
Sabine River.  Meteorological models have contine to show a similar
scenario for the same area for four consecutive days, adding to the
confidence in this forecast.

At this time, the upper level trough will weaken as it slides further
east.  Precipitation is expected to linger over East Texas and the
Texas Coast Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorm activity will
eventually shift back north and west from the Panhandle south to the
Big Bend Thursday as another strong storm system is expected to move
into the Pacific Coast Thursday.  Thunderstorm chances will remain
in place into the weekend.

We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for North Central and
Central Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1.50 to 2 inches
are forecast for East Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are
forecast for the remainder of Texas east of U.S. Highway 281 and
north of Interstate 10.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for the remainder of Texas east of a Wichita Falls to Del
Rio line.  Lighter MAP amounts are possible for Southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for Southeast Texas and the Texas coasts.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the Texas Panhandle south to the Rolling Plains and
the Big Bend area.  Lighter MAP amounts are expected for the
remainder of the WGRFC area.

The ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area.  About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread,
with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional
drought.   Localized runoff is possible in the stronger
thunderstorms.  Widespread significant runoff is possible late
Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of Central and East Texas.  Mainstem
river flooding is possible in the heavier rainfall.  Widespread
river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC forecast points are currently below criteria. No
significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

WALLER


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
