Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011613
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

                VALID SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 6

...COASTAL SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ALONG WITH
MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Locally heavy rainfall along the middle to upper Texas Gulf coastal
areas continues from the early morning hours northeastward along the
coast. The tropical upper level trough remains rather stationary
over the Gulf coast of Texas.  This is allowing lift to
occur and stream over the coast bringing coastal showers and
thunderstorms that is expected to continue for the next few days.
These showers should not push to far inland and no flooding is
expected.

The monsoonal activity should continue out in the upper Rio Grande
and Pecos river basin areas in the western portion of
the WGRFC area.  Otherwise, the upper level ridge will remain
fixated over the rest of the forecast area keeping the weather warm
and dry for much of the week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inches or less are forecasted for the Gulf Coast
region.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for the Gulf Coast region.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for the Gulf Coast region.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for the Gulf Coast region and 0.50 inches for the upper
headwater areas of the Rio Grande River.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over
the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues.  Dry
soil conditions continue across most of Texas. Lake levels continue to
remain near conservation or within flood pools for much of north and
east Texas while most west Texas reservoirs are well below conservation.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCKEE


$$





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