Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 251632
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1131 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016
VALID JULY 25 THROUGH JULY 30
...THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA THROUGH
A ridge of high pressure at the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere is centered over the four corners region this morning.
This ridge has brought hot and dry conditions to the WGRFC area the
past several days. The ridge is beginning to gradually shrink, weaken
some, and shift slightly to the west. While this change appears
subtle, this shift will allow the rain chances to increase across
parts of our region this week. For today the most favored area for
rain will be over eastern Texas and Louisiana. An easterly wave of
low pressure is located over northeast Texas which is forecast to
move southwest into central Texas by this evening. This, along with
some increasing moisture will lead to at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms. By Tuesday the easterly wave will slide southwestward
over the Texas Hill Country and therefore will increase the rain
chances from the Hill country to east Texas, meaning rain is possible
in locations that have seen little or no rain so far this month.
There also could be residual showers along the coast with the sea
breeze front. And, isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms will
be fairly likely over portions of New Mexico and south central
Colorado through Tuesday, mainly due daytime heating and orographic
lift near the mountains, due to the monsoon. Mean areal precipitation
amounts will be minimal.
By Wednesday a second easterly wave of low pressure will move across
southeast Texas and will likely result in some scattered showers and
thunderstorms for southern and eastern Texas and the Gulf coast. In
addition, an upper air disturbance is forecast to move out of
Colorado and will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms
over west Texas and the panhandle region.
By Thursday the ridge of high pressure to our west will begin to
strengthen once again over Utah. This will put Texas in more of
a northwesterly upper air flow. The upper air disturbance will
continue to move southeast toward north Texas. This will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday to northern
and eastern Texas into Louisiana. There could be some locally heavy
rain over northeast Texas but it appears much of this heavy rain will
be outside the WGRFC area. The rain chances over parts of New Mexico
and Colorado will likely subside by Friday as the ridge builds. In
fact, as the ridge moves slowly east most of the WGRFC area will see
drier conditions by Saturday afternoon.
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of northern
and eastern New Mexico into southern Colorado, as well as over the
eastern third of Texas into western Louisiana. MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for the northeastern two thirds of
Texas, most of New Mexico, much of Colorado, and Louisiana.
For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of New Mexico into southern Colorado, as
well as over the southeast third of Texas into southern Louisiana.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the
remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility except for
For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of the Texas panhandle into west Texas, as
well as over southern and eastern Texas into Louisiana. The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over western
Louisiana just east of Toledo Bend Lake. MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the remaining areas within
the WGRFC area of responsibility except for northern New Mexico and
For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of the northeastern half of Texas into
Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are
forecast over extreme northeast Texas into southwest Arkansas. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for most of the
remaining areas within the WGRFC area of responsibility.
Soils continue to dry out across Texas due to the warm temperatures
and a lack of significant rainfall. The U.S. Drought Monitor has
categorized Texas as 13% abnormally dry, with almost 2% in moderate
or greater drought. Over New Mexico, 77% of the state is abnormally
dry, and 16% remains in the moderate drought category. Some rainfall
is forecast over the next five days primarily over east and southeast
Texas and western Louisiana. This will keep drought conditions from
developing in this region, but only minor runoff is anticipated. The
lack of heavy rainfall elsewhere will lead to continued drying
through this forecast period and no significant runoff is expected.
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue on the Elm Fork of the Trinity River
near Carrollton (CART2). Lake Lewisville and Lake Grapevine have
decreased their releases, so CART2 has dropped to near action stage
and will stay at this level until additional decreases in upstream
reservoir releases occur.
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Above normal flows continue along the lower Brazos River at Richmond
(RMOT2) and are expected to continue for the next several days.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal seasonal flows are occurring in the eastern half
of Texas. Some rain is expected across parts of the region over the
next 5 days, but no significant river responses are expected over
this time frame. Daily convective activity can cause minor rises
anywhere in the forecast area, but most areas will not see
significant convective activity this week.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: