Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 251655
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1054 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

                 VALID JANUARY 25 THROUGH JANUARY 30

...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WGRFC AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A ridge of high pressure was centered over northern California this
morning.  Meanwhile, a low pressure system was located over the
eastern Pacific Ocean well west of Baja California.  The ridge has
produced a strong, dry northerly flow of air over most of the WGRFC
area.  Within this northerly flow an upper air disturbance moved
across Iowa and Kansas, but was too far away to produce precipitation
over our region.  Therefore, dry conditions have been observed over
most of the WGRFC area, and the mild and dry weather should continue
through tonight as this flow persists.  Well out ahead of the eastern
Pacific low, there has been some light precipitation over northern
Mexico the past 24 hours, and some of this rain will continue through
Monday from Chihuahua westward.

The western U.S. ridge of high pressure will build over the
intermountain region on Monday.  This ridge will then move eastward
and will extend from Texas northward to Kansas by Tuesday evening.  As
a result, a dry northwesterly air flow will continue and Texas will be
free of precipitation.  Meanwhile, on Monday night and Tuesday the low
pressure system in the Pacific will move northward into the western
states. This could result in some light precipitation as far east as
New Mexico and far west Texas.  Thereafter, this low will weaken and
move eastward across the central Rockies and the central plains.
Again this disturbance will pass too far to the north to bring Texas
any precipitation so the dry weather will continue through Wednesday
night.

By Thursday a ridge of high pressure will be positioned south of
Texas while yet another Pacific storm system moves east into
California. The combination of these systems will push higher amounts
of moisture from the Pacific into the western parts of the WGRFC
area. Since the low over California will be nearly stationary into
Friday, light precipitation will be possible over Colorado, New
Mexico and far west Texas Thursday night into Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over the southwest half of New Mexico into far west
Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over southwestern New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over parts of southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico, as well as over much of southern New Mexico into
far west Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, almost half the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (41%), and 11% has extreme to exceptional
drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. Outside of east and southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry. The current precipitation forecast the
next five days will not be heavy enough to produce new or additional
runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding is occurring on the  Neches River near Diboll (DIBT2).

The Angelina River near Lufkin (LUFT2) is also expected to remain
in minor criteria for a few days.  Attoyac Bayou near Chireno
(ATBT2) has risen above minor flood levels and has crested near 16
feet.  Pine Island near Sour Lake (SOLT2) has risen  slightly above
action stage and is expected to continue its rise slightly above
minor flood criteria over the next few days.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady above minor
criteria at this time based on reservoir releases upstream.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Some runoff is still being experienced over the middle and lower
sections  of the Trinity River basin.  Bedias Creek near
Madisonville (MDST2)  has crested slightly above minor flood
criteria.  The Trinity River near Moss Bluff (MBFT2) has continued
its slow rise above action stage and should reach its peak slightly
below minor flood stage in a few days.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Guadalupe River at Victoria is forecast to exceed action stage
later today with a crest near 12 feet.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Several points are still above bankfull levels. The Brazos River
near Bryan (BBZT2) has crested  near 24 feet and is expected to
remain above criteria for  several days.  The Middle Yegua Creek
near Dime Box (DMYT2) has  crested slightly below minor flood
criteria and is currently  in a slow recession.  The East Yegua
Creek near Dime Box (DEYT2) has risen  above bankfull and should
begin receding quickly at the beginning  of the week. Davidson Creek
near Lyons (LYNT2) has crested and is slowly receding. The Navasota
River at  Old Spanish Rd. near Normangee (NGET2) is above action
stage criteria and still on the rise. It should crest in the next
couple  of days slightly below 14 feet then recede.  The Brazos
River near  Hempstead (HPDT2) is still rising from upstream runoff.
This  location should crest near 32 feet early next week.  The
Brazos  River downstream at Richmond (RMOT2) is rising above action
stage now.  The crest is  forecast to be below 30 feet by Monday
afternoon.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows with no
additional flooding expected over the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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