Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
AGUS74 KFWR 311619
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

                     VALID MAY 31 THROUGH JUNE 5

...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The next storm system  which is affecting the WGRFC area is located
along the Mexico/Arizona border region this morning.  Deep moisture
well out ahead of this low exists over Texas and eastern New Mexico.
This moisture did combine with one upper air disturbance the past 24
hours to produce thunderstorms from the middle Texas Gulf coast into
deep south Texas.  A second upper level disturbance moved into
southwest Texas last evening, and this trough is moving over central
and north Texas this morning.  This trough caused the dryline to
become active Monday, with showers and thunderstorms occurring over
primarily southeastern New Mexico into the western third of Texas.
Isolated areas received in excess of 3.00 inches of rain the past 24
hours, with amounts of 4 to 5 inches noted near Lomax TX. The
disturbance which is spreading over north and central Texas now is
producing new thunderstorms west of the DFW metroplex, with ongoing
thunderstorms near Junction and over southwest Texas as well. Locally
heavy rain is again possible in the strongest thunderstorms,
especially over extreme north Texas.

The upper low over Arizona/Mexico will move little today. This will
result in the dryline becoming active once again across western Texas
later today.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop which will move
east across southern and western Texas tonight. This low is forecast
to move very slowly into Wednesday so this rain will likely spread
across much of the remainder of Texas on Wednesday.

The upper air low pressure system is forecast to move over southwest
Texas by Thursday morning.  The overall weather pattern created
by the low being in this position system is conducive for additional
rainfall across especially central and east Texas Thursday and
Friday.  More showers and thunderstorms are expected with locally
heavy rainfall possible.

On Saturday morning the upper level low pressure system is forecast
to be over south central Texas.  In addition, a cold front is
forecast to move into the state from the northwest.  This may focus
the heavier rainfall over southeast Texas and near the middle
and upper Texas Gulf coast Saturday into Sunday morning as the front
progresses slowly southeast.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for the central and
western Texas, northeast New Mexico and southeast Colorado. The
heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast between
Gainesville and Lubbock TX.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for a good part of Colorado and New Mexico, and most of
Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for most of Texas and eastern New Mexico.  The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast just southwest of
San Antonio and between Gainesville and Wichita Falls TX. MAP amounts
of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC area of
responsibility.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for the southeast two thirds of Texas, a small part
of northern New Mexico, and western Louisiana.  The heaviest rain,
with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast near Waco TX.
Widespread 1.00 inch amounts are forecast from the DFW metroplex to
Brownsville.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for
most of Texas and Louisiana and portions of New Mexico and southern
Colorado.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for the southeast two thirds of Texas and Louisiana.
The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast
east of Corpus Christi and from Galveston to Beaumont TX.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC
area of responsibility except for western New Mexico.

Soils continue to be  moist across the majority of Texas. Only 3% of
Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with no moderate or greater
drought noted.  Over New Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry,
and 37% remains in the moderate drought category.  With soils being
so wet in Texas, significant runoff is expected from the forecast
rainfall this week over northern, central and south central Texas.
Minor to moderate runoff may occur over east Texas as well. Over the
remainder of the WGRFC area only minor runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread moderate to major flooding continues in the lower Trinity
river basin with many locations continuing to rise as water moves
downstream.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Widespread moderate to major flooding continues in the lower Trinity
river basin with many locations continuing to rise as water moves
downstream.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall around and above Lake Brownwood has caused
the lake to rise, with water over the spillway.  Flooding concerns
downstream of the lake will depend on rainfall this week.  The
Highland Lakes, and for forecast purposes, Lake Travis, are now
releasing excess water from their flood pools.  This release will
come in after the flood wave from last week and will not generate
new mainstem river flooding.  The Colorado River at Wharton (WHAT2)
is cresting today in major flood category, and will start to slowly
recede.  Any rainfall over the next 5 days will generate runoff and
could generate new river flooding.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Moderate to major flood conditions are occurring in the Brazos River
basin.  The record crest on the lower end of the Brazos mainstem has
passed through Hempstead (HPDT2) and San Felipe (BAWT2). The forecast
point at Richmond (RMOT2) is forecast to crest this afternoon. The
river will remain at major flood levels through the week.

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Flooding at Bloomington (DUPT2) will fluctuate around moderate flood
levels in response to routed waters..

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Widespread minor to moderate flooding continues in the Neches river
basin.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2), and
higher than normal flows continue for several points along the basin
due to recent rainfall and routed flows.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows will continue along the entire San Bernard
River basin for the next several days due to recent heavy rain and
routed flows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows are forecast for Medina River at US 281 and
the San Antonio River at Floresville, near Falls City, at SH 72 near
Runge, and at Goliad due to recent heavy rainfall and routed flows.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remaining river systems across the WGRFC area remain relatively
wet, especially the eastern half of Texas, and additional rainfall
expected within the next 5 days will likely generate river responses
which could lead to more river action level and flood level flows.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.