Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 281613
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017

                     VALID MAY 28 THROUGH JUNE 2

...WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
As of late this Sunday morning an upper air disturbance is located
over western Kansas, and a cold front has crossed the northwestern
half of Texas. In advance of this cold front, rainfall amounts of 0.5
to 1.5 inches have been observed in portions of northern and eastern
Texas. The cold front is forecast to continue moving towards the
coast, and showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop in
advance of this front from East Texas where storms are already
underway to northeastern Mexico. The front is expected to slow down
at some time today and stall somewhere north of the Texas coast
overnight. Thunderstorms with locally heavy rain can be expected to
produce a localized flash flooding threat from the Hill Country and
South Texas all the way to eastern Texas through Monday evening.

There will be continued rainy weather throughout the coming week
across portions of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado as additional
upper level low pressure systems move over the region. WGRFC
forecasters will be monitoring rainfall amounts and potential
flooding throughout the weekend and the coming week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are forecast for portions of southern and
eastern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the
rest of southern, central, and eastern Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
forecast for portions of southern and coastal Texas. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for most of the rest of southern,
southwestern, and eastern Texas. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for
portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch
are forecast for portions of southern, southwestern, and coastal
Texas. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of the southern
two thirds of Texas and for New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 3 inches are
forecast for portions of northern and central Texas. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for most of the rest of Texas. Lesser
MAP amounts are forecast for New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Soil moisture conditions have rebounded due to the widespread
rainfall which fell last weekend. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas shows the area considered to be abnormally dry is down to 22%.
And, only 2% of Texas was experiencing moderate drought with less
than 1% of the state in severe drought.  In New Mexico, 24% of the
state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions with 7% of the state
in the moderate drought category.  The rainfall the next five days
may be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over the southwest
Texas and the Hill Country rivers, and possibly coastal and
northeastern Texas river basins.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Action stage to minor flooding on the Neches river system is slowly
ending will all locations either cresting or falling. More rainfall
is expected in the WGRFC region through the week, with potentially
higher amounts that will likely take many locations over flood stage
and a few possibly into moderate flood level. Latest area with greatest
likelihood of seeing higher than normal flows are southern Coastal
Plain, lower Rio Grande Valley and east Texas, especially the Neches
River.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


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