Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251531
1031 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2017

                    VALID JULY 25 THROUGH JULY 30


                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Monsoonal activity in our western and southwestern forecast areas
will dominate the weather through the current forecast period.
Moisture has been abundant from northern Mexico and far southwest
Texas into New Mexico and southern Colorado the past several days.
Most of New Mexico and southern Colorado has observed afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms the past several days, with
even heavier rainfall over portions of northern Mexico and Arizona.
After a slight decrease in the rainfall today and Tuesday the
thunderstorms should return in earnest through the middle and end
of this week, with the areas near the mountains of New Mexico into
southern Colorado being the most favored locations.

Further south, some rain chances will continue over the Rio Grande
valley between El Paso and the Texas Big Bend area.  Diurnal
thunderstorms are forecast to develop over northern Mexico and far
southwest Texas each afternoon due primarily to upslope flow, but
will not be as heavy or as widespread as this past weekend.

Over southeast Texas, data indicates an above normal amount of
moisture is in place, and already this morning showers and
thunderstorms are fairly heavy and widespread over east central
Texas (which are left over from a complex of thunderstorms which
moved through north Texas).  This moisture, combined with the sea
breeze front and an easterly wave of low pressure, will enhance the
potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
over east Texas and western Louisiana.  Some of the stronger storms
could produce locally heavy downpours. The moisture is forecast to
decrease Tuesday and Wednesday so the rainfall will decrease.
Nevertheless, the pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms
along and near the Texas Gulf coast will likely repeat itself each
one of the next five days.

Rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were heaviest over northern

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of
an inch are forecast for the upper Rio Grande and portions of the
Pecos river basin.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch
are forecast for the upper Rio Grande and portions of the
Pecos river basin.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to one inch
are forecast for the upper Rio Grande and portions of the
Pecos river basin.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 26%, and roughly 8% of Texas is
experiencing moderate (or worse) drought conditions. In New Mexico,
27% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with
about 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.  Due to the
lack of excessive rainfall in the forecast we are not anticipating
significant runoff the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
No widespread river flooding is expected over the WGRFC area during
the next 5 days.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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