Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 051711
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

                VALID FEBRUARY 5 THROUGH FEBRUARY 10

...ASIDE FROM SOME PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, A DRY
SPELL OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper air disturbance is gaining strength as it moves
southeastward across the central Rockies this morning.  This
disturbance will move across the Texas panhandle today and across
north and east Texas tonight into Saturday. This storm produced some
snow across central and southeast Colorado the past 24 hours.  This
low will produce some light rain or drizzle over north Texas tonight
and over east Texas into Louisiana Saturday as the storm passes. This
storm should exit the WGRFC area by Saturday evening and the rainfall
will end. No hydrologic impacts are expected over the WGRFC area.

A large high pressure system will form over the western U.S.
Sunday, and this ridge will persist for several days.  The
northwesterly upper air flow over the WGRFC area will keep the
weather dry across the region from Sunday through at least Wednesday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over northeast New
Mexico and the eastern half of Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over portions of east Texas.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25
of an inch are forecast over roughly the eastern third of Texas into
western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Soil moisture continues to be above average in spite of the somewhat
drier weather conditions of late.  As a result, less rainfall than
usual will be required for runoff to occur. This, along with the
vegetation being dormant because we are in winter means runoff will
occur faster.  Over Texas, only 2% of the state is categorized as
abnormally dry.  Over New Mexico, 9% of the state is abnormally dry,
and that is mostly confined to the western portions of the state.
Precipitation over the next 5 days will not be heavy enough for
significant runoff to occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Minor flood and higher flow conditions continue to subside on the
Sabine and Trinity River basins.  Flood control reservoirs within
these basins continue to evacuate flood storage keeping downstream
flows higher, but within controlled design channel capacities.  No
significant rainfall is forecast in the next 5 days so no additional
flooding is expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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