Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Middle Atlantic RFC

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AGUS71 KRHA 121347
HMDRHA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
847 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

An arctic cold front is scheduled to move from west to east
across the Mid Atlantic region tonight.  Snow showers, snow
flurries and perhaps a heavier snow squall is possible with
fropa.

The coldest air of the season will follow the passage of the
arctic cold front this weekend.  Baseflow freeze-up is showing
up this morning and with several very cold days ahead expect
ice formation on rivers and smaller streams and creeks.

The next significant weather system to effect the Mid Atlantic
region will come in the extended period, Tuesday into Tuesday
night, as low pressure moves northeastward from the Gulf coast.
Upper level trough is hinting at a slight negative tilt aloft
and with gulf and eventually some Atlantic moisture guidance
is strongly suggesting a widespread 1 to 2 inches of QPF
(water equivalents) with locally higher point amounts.  Early
indications also suggest a mostly all rain event across MARFC`s
eastern river basins and mixed snow, sleet and rain across
western river basins.  Precipitation type, amounts and timing
will all be dependent upon the actual track of the surface
low.  MARFC will monitor this situation throughout the weekend.

72 hour basin average QPF is expected to range from zero /0.00/
up to a tenth /0.10/ of an inch.  Except for some fluctuations
in stage due to ice formation, expect little change in river
levels over the next 72 hours.  All MARFC river and stream
forecasts will be issued shortly.

DAS

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