Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 020156
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
956 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE PRELIM 00Z OPC/NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVR NRN MD E-NE OVR SRN NT1 OFF WTRS
TO WEAK LOW PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE FRONT WILL PERSIST OVRNGT
INTO TUE...AND THEN SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT TUE NGT INTO WED AND
THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS S OVR NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS. E T0 NE WINDS
TO 25 KT OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AROUND 30 KT ARE NOTED OVR THE GULF
OF MAINE THIS EVE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR ANY TSTMS THAT IMPACT
THE WTRS OVRNGT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM
S OF LONG ISLAND S AND SW TOWARD THE N CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
OVERNGT HRS. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE PREV
FCST FOR THE EVE UPDATE. WE WILL TWEAK WIND...SEA...AND WX GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO FIT NEARBY CWF AND TAFB GRIDS AND FCSTS A LITTLE
BETTER FOR THE EVE UPDATE.

SEAS...SEA HTS STILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 4 FT OVR MOST OF THE SRN AND
CENTRAL NT2 WTRS TO 7 TO 8 FT OVR NRN NT1 WTRS PER THE 00Z RA1 OPC
SEA STATE ANALYSIS. AGAIN...FOR THE EVE UPDATE WE WILL TWEAK THE
PREV GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO FIT NEARLY CWF AND TAFB FCST...BUT OTW NO
MAJOR CHANGES APPEAR NEEDED FOR THE EVE UPDATE.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...12Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY FNT EXTNDG ACROSS
THE SRN NT1 WTRS. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT PASSES FROM THIS MRNG SHOWED
NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE WTRS N OF THE STNRY FNT...AND
LIGHT WINDS S OF THE STNRY FNT OVER THE NT2 WTRS.

THE STNRY FNT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SRN NT1 WTRS TONITE AND TUE...AS
A LOW MOVES E ALONG THE FNTL BNDRY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NE TUE NITE THRU WED NITE WHILE DVLPG...AND PULL THE FNT SE ACROSS
THE NE PART OF THE NT2 WTRS AS A COLD FNT. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE NT1 AREA WED AND WED NITE...THEN MOVE E OVER THE
NT1 WTRS THU AND THU NITE...BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE OFSHR WTRS
FRI. A WEAK WARM FNT WILL LIFT NE OVER THE NT2 WTRS THRU THRU FRI.
A WEAK LOW IS EXPCTD TO MOVE N ACROSS THE NT2 AREA FRI AND FRI
NITE. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPCTD TO TRACK N AND APRCH THE SE PART OF
THE NT2 AREA LATER SAT AND SAT NITE.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THERE ARE TIMING AND
TRAJECTORY DIFFS CONCERNING A WEAK LOW THAT IS EXPCTD TO LIFT N OR
NE OUT OF THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE NT2 WTRS THU THRU FRI NITE. THE
MED RNG MDLS ARE ALSO DIFFERING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A
SECOND LOW WHICH IS EXPCTD TO LIFT N OUT OF THE BAHAMAS ON SAT AND
SAT NITE. WILL USE THE 12Z GFS 10M SOLN TO POPULATE THE WIND
GRIDS THRU WED NITE...EXCEPT THE 12Z GFS 30M SOLN WILL BE USED
THRU WED MRNG IN THE NT1 WTRS N OF THE STNRY FNT. GIVEN THE LACK
OF GUD AGREEMNT WITH THE TWO LOWS EMERGING FROM THE BAHAMAS...WILL
GO WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS 10M/ECMWF FOR THE THU THRU
SAT NITE TIMEFRAME.

.SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 12Z ECMWF WAM
BOTH INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE CSTL/OFSHR WTRS. THESE MDLS ARE IN
GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU SAT NITE...SO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III/ECMWF WAM WILL BE USED FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU
THE FCST PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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