Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 171913
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
313 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...THE IR SAT IMGRY IS STILL SHOWING SOME CONVECTION OVER
THE SRN NT2 WTRS THIS AFTN...WITH THE LIGHTNING PRODUCT SHOWING
ISOLTD SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN NT2 ZONES. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT
PASS AT 1527Z IS SHOWING A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT IN N TO NE FLOW NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA CST...BUT OTHW HAD NO WINDS ABOVE 15 TO 20 KT
ACROSS THE OFSHR AREAS. HURCN EDOUARD WAS AT 36.4N 53.3W AT 17/15Z
THIS MRNG BASED ON THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...WHICH PUTS IT WELL E
OF THE OFSHR WTRS BUT STILL WITHIN THE MIM AREA. LOW PRES WILL PASS
E ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS TONITE...THEN MOVE NE AND PASS SE OF THE
GEORGES BANK AREA THU AND STRENGTHEN. STG HI PRES WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT...MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT WHILE
MAINTAINING A RIDGE W ACROSS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS...THEN WEAKEN
SUN. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPCTD TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA CST SUN...THEN
PASS NE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS SUN NITE AND MON. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NEW ENG AND NEW JERSEY COASTS FROM THE W LATER SUN
INTO SUN NITE...THEN MOVE OFSHR MON.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE ALL IN GUD AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST
PRD...EXCEPT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMNT WITH SPEED/TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW WHICH IS EXPCTD TO FORM OFF THE CAROINA CST ON
SUN...WITH THE 12Z GEM/GFS STGR/FASTER AND 12Z ECMWF/NOGPAS/UKMET
WKR/SLOWER. WILL GO WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS FOR
POPULATING THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD UNTIL THE PICTURE
BECOMES CLEARER.

SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL AND 12Z ECMWF WAM ARE IN GUD
OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU SAT...BUT THE MWW3
BECOMES SVRL FEET HIGHER WITH THE SEAS IN THE NT2 AREAS DURING THE
SAT NITE THRU MON NITE TIMEFRAME. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
12Z ECMWF WAM/MWW3 MDL THRU THE FCST PRD TO RESOLVE THE MDL DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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