Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 292048
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
448 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z THIS MORNING INDICATES A SWATH OF 25-30 KT
N OF A STNRY BNDRY ACROSS THE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OCCURING ALONG THE E CST FROM THE DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND. MAX
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 11-13 FT ACROSS NRN NT2 AND SRN NT1 WATERS.

A STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY OVR ERN QUEBEC WILL SLOWLY SINK
SE AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK LOW CENTER WILL
MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS AND THE RESULTING E-NE
GRADIENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MINIMAL GALES OVR THAT REGION.
THE LOW WILL DISSIPAT BY 48 HRS AND THE GALES WILL DIMINISH.

THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENTA THROUGH 00Z
OCT 3...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AS THE UKMET AND ECMWF FORM
A LOW CENTER OVR THE NT1 WATERS...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FLATTER.
AT THE VERY END OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE
MATTHEU COULD BE FELT OVER THE FAR SERN WATERS. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST BRINDS THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE JUST S OF THE WATERS
ON 12Z OCT 6. WILL POP THE GRIDS USING THE 10M GFS THROUGH 00Z OCT
03. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK I WILL POP
THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND GRIDS USING THE OFFICIAL GRIDS. SOME
EDITING WAS NEEDED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES.

SEAS...THE WAM IS SLIGHTLY BETTER INITIALIZED THAN THE WNA OVR THE
FIRST 12 HRS AND THEREFOR THAT IS WHAT I USED FOR THE SEAS DURING
THAT TIME. FROM 09Z SEPT 30 THROUGH 00Z OCT 03 I USED A 50/50
BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK I USED THE
OFFICIAL GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE STRONG ENELY
GRADIENT THE 12Z ESTOFS AND ETSS MDLS BOTH FCST SIMILAR SURGES...
IN THE 1.0-1.5 FT RANGE...WILL OCCUR ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
VIRGINIA CAPES UP TO LONG ISLAND SOUND  INTO EARLY FRI
NITE...WHICH MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE FRI.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI.

.NT2 MID-ATLANTIC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO FRI.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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