Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 220031
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
831 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...LATEST LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE ERN PART OF THE NT2 WTRS THIS EVNG...AND ALSO IN THE SRN NT1
WTRS S OF LONG ISLAND. LOW PRES CNTRD OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE NT1 AREA TONITE...THEN DSIPT E OF CAPE COD EARLY
WED. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW WILL MOVE SE OFF THE MID ATL CST
TONITE...TURN NE WED...PASS SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE SRN NT1 WTRS WED
NITE INTO EARLY FRI WHILE DEEPENING...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE
LATER FRI INTO SAT WHILE MAINTAINING A TROF OVER THE NT1 AND NRN
NT2 WTRS. THE DVLPG LOW WILL PULL A COLD FNT E ACROSS THE NT2 WTRS
TONITE INTO THU. ANOTHER TROF WILL SWING SE ACROSS THE NT1 AND NRN
NT2 WTRS SAT INTO SUN. A HI PRES RDG WILL SLOWLY BLD E INTO THE
NT2 WTRS SAT THRU SUN NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD. THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING
AND STRENGTH DIFFS AMONG THE MED RNG MDLS...BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN
VRY CONSISTENT AND REPRESENTATIVE...SO WILL USE THE GFS 30M TO
POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE
ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL AND ECMWF WAM GUIDANCE ARE IN GUD
AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PRD...WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFS MAINLY DURING
THE SAT THRU SUN NITE TIMEFRAME. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MWW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD TO SMOOTH
OUT THE DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS AND ETSS MDL GUIDANCE
SHOWS APPROX 1.0 TO 1.5 FT POS SURGE ALG NEW JERSEY CST FOR LATE
WED AND WED NITE...AS STRENGTHENING NE FLOW PUSHES WATERS INTO
THE CST. ESTOFS IS ALSO SHOWING A POS SURGE OF ABOUT 1.0 FT IN THE
GLF OF MAINE FOR LATE WED AND WED NITE...AS STRENGTHENING EASTERLY
FLOW ENTERS THE AREAS. ETSS LOOKS UNDERDONE WITH SURGE EXPCTD FOR
THE GLF OF MAINE.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE THU.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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