Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 182018
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
118 PM PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The 18z surface analysis indicated a strong cold front over the
far northwest portion of the Washington offshore waters and
extending southwest. A high pressure ridge covered most of the
California waters. The latest ascat pass from around 1740z missed
the Washington and Oregon waters, however have had several ship
and buoy reports of gales or gusts to gale over the past few
hours.

The 12z models continue to be in very good agreement during the
short term period, and are also in better agreement during the
medium range period compared to yesterday. For the immediate
short term period through Friday, all of the models indicate the
strong cold front moving slowly southeast across the Washington
and Oregon waters tonight, and into the northern California
waters Thursday while weakening. The GFS 10m winds look
reasonable based on current conditions, so do not plan on making
any major changes here. Then looking ahead to Friday night and
beyond, the models forecast another system to affect the
Washington, Oregon and northern Califoria waters Friday evening
through Saturday. A warm front will lift northeast across this
area Friday night, followed by a cold front Saturday. The front
will eventually become stationary over the southern Oregon waters
Sunday and Sunday night. For early next week, the models indicate
a strong low passing west of the area Monday and Monday night.
The GFS/UKMET/CMC continue to be in decent agreement with the
further west track compared to the ECMWF, so will defer to the
GFS during this time period also. In summary, plan on using the
GFS 10m winds throughout the period.

.SEAS...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that overall the observed
seas were mostly within a foot of the WaveWatch III and ECMWF WAM
forecast values...although over the northern Oregon waters the
observed values were running about 2 to 4 ft lower than the model
values. For the wave grids, plan on continuing to use a 50/50
blend of the WaveWatch and ECMWF WAM values with a few minor
adjustments, mainly over the Washington and Oregon waters.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Friday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Friday night.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.



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