Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 140903
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
103 AM PST SUN FEB 14 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A BROAD UPR LVL HI PRES RIDGE OVR THE FAR ERN N PAC OCEAN WILL
PERSIST INTO MON...AND THEN SHIFT E MON NITE AND TUE. UPR LVL LOW
PRES WILL APPROACH THE WTRS FROM THE W TUE NITE...THEN SWING E
AND NE OVR THE WTRS WED INTO THU. A WEAK UPR LVL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION LTR THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPR LVL LOW PRES TROF.

SHORT TERM...LATE EVE ASCAT AND ASCAT-B PASSES INDICATED THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVR THE OFF WTRS WERE OCCURRING OVR CENTRAL CALIF
OFF WTRS WHERE THE PRES GRAD BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW PRES TROF AND
HIGH PRES CENTERED W OF THE PZ6 WTRS IS THE STRONGEST. WINDS UP
TO 25 TO 30 KT WERE NOTED OVR THIS REGION...WHICH MATCHES WELL
WITH THE ONGOING OPC FCST...AND ALSO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS. THE
06Z PRELIM OPC SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED 1034 MB HIGH PRES NR 36N
132W OR ABOUT 175 NM W OF THE CENTRAL CAL OFF WTRS. A LOW PRES
TROF WAS LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIF COAST WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NE OVR WASH OFF WTRS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OF
THE WASH WTRS TODAY AS HIGH PRES W OF THE CALIF WTRS EXPANDS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY REACH FAR NW WASH WTRS TONITE AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS WELL TO THE W OF THE PZ5 WTRS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT MON...WITH THE HIGH PRES AREA AND
COASTAL LOW PRES TROF REMAINING IN PLACE AND SLOWLY WEAKENING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SE INTO NW WASH WTRS LTR
MON...LKLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES SE MON NITE. BY TUE...YET
ANOTHER LOW WILL INTENSIFY W OF THE PZ5 WTRS...WITH THE COASTAL
TROF AND HIGH PRES AREA BOTH STEADILY WEAKENING DURING THE DAY.
FOR THE MOST PART THE 00Z GLBL MDLS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
OVR THE OFF WTRS TODAY THRU TUE. WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS 10M WINDS AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...FOR TUE NITE THE LOW TO THE W OF THE PZ5 WTRS WILL BE
MOVING E AND NE TOWARD THE WTRS WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING N OVR
PZ5 WTRS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO PUSH E
AND SE INTO PZ5 AND NW CALIF OFF WTRS EARLY WED. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH SRN CALIF WTRS LTR WED AS LOW PRES CROSSES PZ5
WTRS OR REMAINS JUST N OF THE WTRS. MDL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY WED OVR THE REGION. AFTER STAYING CLOSE TO THE 00Z
GFS INTO TUE NITE...WE WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF LTR TUE NITE AND WED. THE GFS GUID WOULD BRING GALES
INTO CENTRAL CAL WTRS LTR WED WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING WINDS
APPROACHING GALE FORCE W OF THE NRN CAL WTRS BY WED EVE. AS
CONFDC LVLS REMAIN RATHER LOW OVR THE REGION WED AND WED NITE
THRU THU NITE WE WILL KEEP MAX WINDS AT 30 KT FOR NOW...AND CONT
TO EVALUATE FUTURE MDL GUID TO SEE WHERE GALES MIGHT OCCUR BY THE
MIDDLE OR LTR PORTIONS OF THE WK. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OR
LIFT N OF THE WTRS BY THU AS THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND NW LTR THU AND PUSH E AND SE
OVR PZ5 AND NW CALIF WTRS THU NITE. AGAIN...AS MDL DIFFERENCES
PERSIST WE WILL CAP WINDS AT 30 KT FOR THU AND THU NITE AND ADD
GALES IN THE FUTURE...SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT.

.SEAS...THE 00Z ENP WV WATCH III MDL OUTPUT AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDL
OUTPUT APPEAR TO BE RUNNING WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF THE LATEST OBS
AND ALTIMETER DATA OVR THE ERN N PAC EARLY THIS MORNING. AS WE
WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS FOR WINDS FOR TODAY THRU TUE WE
WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z WV WATCH III GUID. AS WE USE A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR WINDS TUE NITE THRU THU NITE WE
WILL ALSO USE A BLEND OF THE TWO WV MDLS...AND MAKE A FEW MANUAL
EDITS TO LOWER SEA HTS BY A FT OR TWO WED INTO THU NITE AS WE CAP
THE WINDS AT 30 KT AS DESCRIBED ABV.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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