Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 191405
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
605 AM PST THU JAN 19 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

No major changes are planned for the morning update. The 12z
surface analysis indicated low pressure inland over northern
California with a weakening cold front extending south. Satellite
imagery and lightning data indicates most of the convection has
shifted inland, although still getting a few strikes over the
central California coastal waters south of the bay area. The next
strong system was located near 46N153W with occluded front
extending east and southeast. The 06z GFS and NAM are in very good
agreement with this system as it moves east the next few days.
Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week the 06z GFS,
similar to the 00z run continues to be a bit further north with
the low compared to the other global models. The previous shift
used the 00z ECMWF with this system, and this still looks
reasonable as it is a good compromise between the further north
GFS and further southeast UKMET/GEM. Plan on leaving existing
warning headlines as is for the time being. The 12z sea state
analysis indicated that observed seas matched up well with the
MWW3 forecast values for the most part, although over the Oregon
and far northern California coast seas were a few feet lower than
the model values.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The most recent altimeter passes across the epac indicates seas
near 25 ft nr 40n135w. The Ascat pass from 05z shows a quieter
epac than than earlier. A swath of 30-35 kt winds is occuring w of
the California waters. In General the overall forecast philosophy
hasnt changes much with the latest global model runs. The pattern
will remain very progressive and dynamic as a series of strong
short waves affect the region...bringing strong gales to near
storm condtions to the waters. The overall model guidance remainse
in relatively good agreement...despite the fast progressive nature
across the region. Will populate the wind grids using the GFS
through 06z sunday then transition to the ECMWF for the remainder
of the week. The reason I am using the ECMWF for the rest of the
week is that the GFS is forecasting a stong low center too far
North...while the UKMET and ECMWF are in better agreement in
taking a the system further south. Otherwise the model agreement
looks good.

Seas...both the wam and enp initialized well. will populate the
seas using the corresponding model to match the wind grids.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Friday.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Sunday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Friday.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight into Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Monday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Monday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight into Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Friday night.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Sunday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday.
     Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight into Friday.
     Storm Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday.
.PZZ940...Outer Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ945...Outer Waters from 120W to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier/Shaw. Ocean Prediction Center.



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