Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 281956
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

VALID 00Z FRI JUL 29 2016 - 00Z SUN JUL 31 2016

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
ACROSS THE WEST...


FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE WET FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST REGIONS DURING THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN THE EVENING AND MOVE TOWARDS DELMARVA BY
TONIGHT.  FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ARE BOTH POTENTIAL
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  BY FRIDAY, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE MID-ATLANTIC DRIES
OUT.  BY SATURDAY, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AND CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST.  FLASH FLOODING WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A CONCERN ALONG WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SEE
THE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IMPACTING THE EASTERN U.S. ALSO EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP FIRE OFF A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY EVENING AND WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING.  THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE DRIVING THIS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THUS, CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES CAN BE EXPECTED ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY--WITH THE HEIGHT OF ACTIVITY OCCURRING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ALSO OCCURING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING TO SIT OVER THE WESTERN
U.S., EXPECT TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY.
 BY SATURDAY, THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN--AND THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL RETURN BACK TO
NORMAL.  THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR WILD FIRES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS FOR THE WEST DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS.



FANNING


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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