Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 161103
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
701 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 16 2014 - 12Z THU SEP 18 2014

...HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHEAST WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH SHOULD WANE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINE BY TUESDAY
EVENING.  A FRONT MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BIG STORY WILL CONCERN MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND WESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO/TEXAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ODILE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EXPECTED PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
AMOUNTS WHICH COULD CHALLENGE THE ANNUAL AVERAGE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF NORBERT EIGHT DAYS AGO/ON SEPTEMBER 8.


ZIEGENFELDER/ROTH


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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