Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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403 ACUS01 KWNS 090601 SWODY1 SPC AC 090600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/NORTH TX EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Thursday afternoon and evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... Another very active severe weather episode is possible later today, with the main threat expected along a generally west-to-east corridor from parts of north/central TX into the Southeast. Some severe potential will persist across parts of AL/GA during the day, with at least some risk of all severe hazards. Supercells capable of producing very large to giant hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are possible across parts of central/north TX during the afternoon and early evening. One or more fast-moving MCSs may move eastward across parts of the Southeast tonight, potentially producing a swath of damaging wind. A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will cover much of the CONUS on Thursday. An embedded mid/upper-level low will move slowly and perhaps retrograde toward the eastern Great Basin, with moderate to strong westerly midlevel flow extending eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast. A cold front will move across parts of the southern Plains and Southeast through the day, with the frontal position potentially influenced by widespread antecedent convection that will likely last into the morning. ...MS/AL/GA/SC during the day... A cluster of strong to potentially severe storms may be ongoing across parts of MS/AL/GA/SC at the start of the forecast period. This convection may expand in coverage through the morning within broad low-level warm advection, and generally spread east-southeastward toward the coast. Downstream of this convection, diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate to potentially strong buoyancy, while favorable deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection. A mixture of supercells and bowing segments will be possible, with an attendant threat of damaging gusts, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Parts of central/north TX during the afternoon... There is some signal for isolated storm development this morning across western portion of the Edwards Plateau, on the western fringe of deeper low-level moisture and strong instability. Any storm that matures in this area could quickly evolve into a supercell with a threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. If any early development persists northeastward, or else does not disrupt the warm sector, then a supercell threat is expected to evolve into parts of central/north TX during the afternoon, both near the dryline/front intersection and also potentially to the cool side of the front. Strong to extreme instability (with MLCAPE across the warm sector potentially in the 3000-4000 J/kg range), favorable deep-layer shear, and elongated/straight hodographs will support a threat of very large to giant hail. Low-level flow/shear will be rather weak, but some tornado threat could also evolve, especially where storm and/or boundary interactions take place. ...Central/north TX eastward across the Southeast during the evening/overnight... A majority of HREF guidance and also some larger-scale guidance (such as the NAM/GFS/ECMWF) depict potential for development of a fast-moving MCS that would move from parts of central/north TX across the Southeast into the overnight hours. The pattern generally favors this scenario, with favorable downstream moisture/instability and moderate to strong westerly flow aloft. If this scenario pans out, then a long swath of damaging winds will be possible from TX across much of the Southeast, including the potential for gusts of greater than 75 mph, and possibly brief line-embedded tornadoes. However, given the inherent uncertainty with late-period MCS development, combined with uncertainty regarding the evolution of diurnal convection into MS/AL/GA, no increase in unconditional wind probabilities has been made with this outlook. The 30% wind area has been expanded southward, based on the latest guidance. ...North Carolina into the Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley... Some early convection may persist into parts of NC and the Mid Atlantic, with a threat of isolated damaging wind. Some redevelopment will be possible into parts of IN/OH, where weak to moderate buoyancy may persist in advance of a cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters capable of isolated hail and damaging wind will be possible. ..Dean/Wendt.. 05/09/2024 $$