Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 261626
SWODY1
SPC AC 261624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MAINLY TONIGHT FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER AZ/NM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDING NORTHEAST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY/ARKLATEX VICINITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

...EAST TX/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AS DISCUSSED IN THE PRIOR /13Z/ OUTLOOK...A CONSIDERABLE CAPPING
INVERSION/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION IN 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM CRP/FWD/SHV/LCH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
RELATIVE ABSENCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. NONETHELESS...PERSISTENT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF A MARGINALLY MOIST AIR MASS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON ACROSS
EAST TX WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SYNOPSIS-DESCRIBED
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED
WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION /LAGGING THE FRONTAL
ZONE/...SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/WARM ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSING FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS
WILL TEND TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. WHILE OCCURRING WITHIN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...HAIL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SOURCE REGION BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPE
GENERALLY LIMITED TO 500-1000 J/KG.

..GUYER/GLEASON.. 12/26/2014



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