Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 291215
SWODY1
SPC AC 291213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.

...NE TX/SE OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
N TX.  MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TX/AR/LA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS A SHALLOW MODIFYING AIR MASS RETURNS NWD/NEWD FROM
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN
EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG...BUT PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH 00Z.

THE STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL GLANCE
THE NE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MOIST SECTOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST N OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE
ARK-LA-MISS.  BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY TONIGHT...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE ANY LARGER THAN
SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THE RISK FOR HAIL
AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER STILL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE
ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/29/2015



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