Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 060053
SWODY1
SPC AC 060051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL WASHINGTON THIS
EVENING AND IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AFTER 1 A.M. CST.

...COASTAL WA...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING VANCOUVER ISLAND/WA COAST
AND WILL TRACK INLAND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TOWARDS THE NRN
ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY SAT. WHILE THE 00Z UIL RAOB SAMPLED POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RAPID COOLING WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. AS SCATTERED COLD-CORE CONVECTION
SPREADS ASHORE...RATHER ISOLATED LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

...CNTRL/ERN TX...
00Z AMA RAOB SAMPLED A 500-MB TEMPERATURE OF -29 DEG C AMID A
DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. WHILE MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS MEAGER...A PLUME OF 0.50-0.75 INCH PW
VALUES SAMPLED BY 00Z CRP/BRO RAOBS HAS REACHED THE AUS/SAT AREA PER
GOES PW IMAGERY. AS MID-LEVEL COOLING OVERSPREADS THIS
PLUME...SLIVERS OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MUCAPE
BELOW 250 J/KG. MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA SHOULD SUPPORT AN ARCING ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE BAND FORMING LATE TONIGHT. A FEW EMBEDDED ELEMENTS MAY
SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING...WITH OVERALL TSTM
PROBABILITY APPEARING TO BE AROUND 10 PERCENT.

..GRAMS.. 02/06/2016

$$


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