Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 011722
SWODY2
SPC AC 011721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER VA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
ALOFT...A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND EARLY...WITH SECONDARY DISTURBANCES EMERGING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...AIDING LIFT. THE PRESENCE OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND 60S F FARTHER N INTO VA.

..CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKER LEADING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE WEAK SFC
TROUGH. HEATING AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
AREAS OF STORMS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NRN AL...GA...AND TN AS 850 WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS OF ONGOING
RAIN AND STORMS WHICH MAY AFFECT AIR MASS QUALITY AND
DESTABILIZATION WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL
THEN TRANSLATE NEWD DURING THE EVENING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS
EXPECTED.

..JEWELL.. 05/01/2016

$$



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