National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
ACUS02 KWNS 281728
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
SWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
WEAK RIDGE EMANATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST
AND HIGH PLAINS.

...S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MODEST. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSE MAY AID IN A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WLYS /CENTERED OVER THE RATON MESA/. GRADUAL EWD-MOVING CLUSTERS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

...WRN GREAT LAKES...
A BELT OF 30-35 KT N/NWLYS SHOULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH -16 TO -18 DEG
C TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR GENERATING WEAK BUOYANCY
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH MINIMAL MLCIN...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SETUP WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT A COUPLE SHORT-LIVED
UPDRAFTS MIGHT PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 07/28/2014