Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 010533
SWODY2
SPC AC 010532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK TO
THE CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY.  SEVERE STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN APPALACHIANS...

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRANSLATE FROM
SD/NEBRASKA TO A POSITION FROM SERN IA...SWWD INTO NWRN TX BY
03/12Z.  WELL AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY MORNING OVER MO.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG NOSE OF LLJ THAT SHOULD VEER
THROUGH THE DAY AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE TN VALLEY BY AFTERNOON.
IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR WHETHER THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE AT 12Z BUT DIABATIC HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR UPWARD-EVOLVING CONVECTION BY MID
DAY BENEATH SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30-40KT.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH THAT SHOULD MIGRATE TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY
EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS...SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WITH
SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL DIG SEWD AND SHARPEN SFC FRONT
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE ALONG THIS WIND SHIFT AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAVOR SWD PROPAGATION INTO THE BODY OF OK...EXTENDING WWD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  ADDITIONALLY...PRE-FRONTAL PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES.  GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE
SUPPORT ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS...LATE-AFTERNOON SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER THAN SURGE SWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 07/01/2015




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