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000
ACUS02 KWNS 100538
SWODY2
SPC AC 100536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...

SPLIT NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED SWD ACROSS THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
ELONGATE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS CO/KS/MO.  ONE SOURCE OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE ACROSS SRN UT/CO EARLY
IN THE PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING INTO MO WELL AFTER DARK.  THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SFC WAVE IN THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO SWRN MO AROUND 12/00Z.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID
MS VALLEY WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 7 C/KM.  NAM IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN ALLOWING SFC DEW POINTS TO RISE THROUGH THE
50S TO NEAR 60F ACROSS SERN MO.  ONE CONCERN REGARDING THIS MOISTURE
SURGE IS THE NEGATING INFLUENCE OF LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NWRN GOM.  THIS FEATURE MAY IMPEDE LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRAJECTORIES SOMEWHAT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IF HOWEVER THE
NAM IS CORRECT IN ALLOWING MID 50S DEW POINTS TO ADVANCE INTO CNTRL
MO ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 23Z ACROSS THIS REGION EXHIBIT A
CAP-FREE BOUNDARY LAYER YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 700
J/KG.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VEERED SOMEWHAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF MO INTO IL IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.

...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST...

NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE KICKED EWD ACROSS THE
GULF TUESDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO NEAR THE FL COAST BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.  WHILE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING SFC FRONT OVER
THE GOM...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD.  ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
WHEREAS FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY APPROACH THE FL BIG BEND REGION AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 03/10/2014