Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 240453
SWODY2
SPC AC 240452

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NM AND W TX NEWD
ACROSS THE MID MS  VALLEY AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND WRN PA...

...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND AND MARGINAL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON
THURSDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SERN STATES WITH A BELT
OF MODEST MIDLEVEL FLOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WITH A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WITH MAIN SFC LOW WILL ALSO MOVING INTO QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A
WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD ALL THE WAY INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH 30-50 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

TO THE W...A BROAD AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN...AIDING IN DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

...SERN NM/W TX NEWD TOWARD LAKE ERIE...
AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE LATE
MORNING...WITH OUTFLOW OVER THE PLAINS POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE SFC
BOUNDARY. HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT WITH SLOW-MOVING STORMS
FROM W TX INTO MO...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED BOWS FROM IL INTO WRN PA.
WIND PROFILES OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT...BUT WILL VEER WITH HEIGHT SUGGESTING A FEW
LONGER-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND WIND AS OUTFLOW IS PRODUCED.

TO THE NE...THE STRONGEST MEAN WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM IL ACROSS INDIANA AND OH WHICH MAY SUPPORT A RELATIVELY GREATER
DAMAGING WIND THREAT COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE SW.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING STORM COVERAGE.

A SLIGHT RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS WITHIN THE
BROAD MARGINAL RISK ZONE...BUT THE RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR AND
EFFECTS OF EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL PRECLUDE A SLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 08/24/2016

$$



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