Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 260823
SWODY3
SPC AC 260822

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SERN LA/MS AND SWRN AL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE CONUS ON
SUNDAY.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT QUICKLY SHEARS NEWD
FROM SW TX TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  FARTHER W...A TROUGH WILL
DIG EQUATORWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NW STATES.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
GULF COAST AND EXTEND NEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER WILL
EXHIBIT A TENDENCY TO FOCUS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL REFLECTION/MASS
RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE PASSING
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE IS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...A WEDGE OF MODIFIED
MARITIME AIR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MID- TO
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW.  THEREFORE A MARGINAL RISK FOR STORMS TO STRENGTHEN
AND ACQUIRE ORGANIZED CHARACTERISTICS LENDS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME.

..SMITH.. 12/26/2014



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