Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 010831
SWODY3
SPC AC 010830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD...LOW-AMPLITUDE
NRN-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY AND AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN
MEXICO AND REACH SRN TEXAS SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SRN TX...

A LARGE AREA OF CP SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN U.S.
SWWD INTO ERN AND SRN TX. A WEAK SLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER SRN TEXAS
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS FROM SRN THROUGH SERN TX. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY UNDERGO
AT LEAST MODEST STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2015



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