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631
WTPZ43 KNHC 252032
TCDEP3

HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

The eye is no longer seen in infrared imagery, but Georgette still
has a small CDO with tops colder than -70C.  The initial intensity
is set to 95 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB.  Rapid weakening is
expected, with Georgette now moving over SSTs of around 25C and
heading for even cooler waters.  The NHC forecast follows the
downward trend in the guidance this cycle and is close to the LGEM.
Georgette should become post-tropical by 3 days and dissipate by
day 4, although I wouldn`t be surprised if both of these occurred
sooner.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/08, as Georgette continues
to be steered northwestward by an upper-level low sliding by to the
north.  The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Georgette
should continue northwestward until about 36 hours and then
gradually accelerate westward in the low-level flow as a shallow
system.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 18.0N 127.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 19.2N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 20.0N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 20.9N 131.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 22.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1800Z 22.5N 141.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan




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