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000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290833
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Hernan continues to weaken.  Deep convection has been decreasing
during the past few hours and is now confined to a small patch to
the northeast of the exposed low-level center.  A blend of the
latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt.  The system is currently
over cool 24 C waters and in atmosphere of fairly dry air and
moderate southwesterly shear.  These environmental conditions are
expected to become even more hostile, which should cause Hernan to
weaken to a depression later today and to a remnant low by tonight.
The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant low
dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over
northern Mexico and the southwestern United States.  Hernan, or
its remnant low, is expected to slow down during the next couple of
days when it steered by the lighter low-level flow.  The model
guidance has changed little this cycle, and the official track
forecast is an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 22.8N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 23.7N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 24.4N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 24.9N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 25.2N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 25.3N 127.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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