Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 282347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 28/2100 UTC...HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS CENTERED NEAR 38.5N
61.5W MOVING NE AT 30 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-41N BETWEEN
57W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 37N BETWEEN
60W-64W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N31W TO 11N34W MOVING W AT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
PRESENT WITHIN AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N43W TO 11N45W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NO
CONVECTION ALSO AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N67W TO 10N70W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 20N SUPPORTING
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W-
73W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 22N85W TO 10N85W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. A 700 MB TROUGH
AXIS IS JUST W OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA IN
CENTRAL AMERICA AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS AFFECTING THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC WATERS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 86W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
09N22W TO 10N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N
BETWEEN 29W-33W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 11N51W TO
09N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 10N42W TO
12N48W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 49W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N97W DRIFTING W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 93W-97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N91W TO 20N92W
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 88W-92W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE SE GULF FROM 25N81W TO 25N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 88W-93W. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS OVER N MEXICO WITH CENTER NEAR
24N103W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
26N86W. A SMALL EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO OVER THE NW
GULF NEAR 28N96W ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE...PLEASE SEE ABOVE. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 14N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 74W-82W. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAIL FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W-
74W RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE. GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY. A
LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
19N-23N BETWEEN 76W-82W IS MOVING SW TO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S
OF CUBA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE W AND FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MOVE
W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION S OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF A TROPICAL WAVE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE
ISLAND. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLAND AND A MOISTURE SURGE
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 45W-73W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N78W TO 26N80W.
A SURFACE 1020MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W.
AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N63W. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
30N78W. WITH THESE FEATURES IN PLACE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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