Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 061041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM
6N-14N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 50W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W S OF 16N TO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA
MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 88W S OF 19N TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 12N21W TO 9N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 7N39W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM
OF LINE FROM 7N17W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR THE SIERRA LEONE
AND GUINEA BORDER AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 30W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N
BETWEEN 54W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N87W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N E OF 90W. THE DIURNAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 93W FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 21N W OF 95W.
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 84W TO
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
LIMITING MOST SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO ALLOW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM
OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A PERSISTENT
STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF COLOMBIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
BASIN TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT/EARLY TUE AND
OUT OF THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE S COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS
KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND THIS
EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL
BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUE AND WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 75W. LARGE UPPER
LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N70W AND DIPS S OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF
THE FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 32N49W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH N OF 28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N40W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N62W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR
SAHARAN DUST REMAINS COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N
TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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