Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 051153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM
10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10
AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...RESUMING AGAIN DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST THIS
MORNING. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES E-SE. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 04N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06S BETWEEN 12W AND 34W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 06N W OF 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N CONTINUES
TO EXTEND AN AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT CAME OFF THE LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS COASTS THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
29N92W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS W OF
THE BOUNDARY. SE TO S WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT IS ELSEWHERE E OF
THE COLD FRONT. ALOFT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC WATERS. OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE E OF THE FRONT FAVOR FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES DOMINATE. OVER THE NW GULF...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...FOG AND HAZE IS BEING REPORTED N
OF 25N W OF 90W AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...COINCIDING WITH
MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. THE COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT AND WILL START DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE W OF THE FRONT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER BASIN. RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS UPPER WIND PATTERN WHICH CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE
PATCHES ARE OBSERVED MAINLY S OF 15N AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN...POSSIBLY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A SHALLOW
AIRMASS IS ALSO OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
WATERS INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...

DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW
TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONT
ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 30N41W SW TO 26N49W.
NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
ATLC W AND E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N
ATLC WATERS FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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