Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 13N/14N FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL TO
18W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N11W 5N15W 3N20W 1N25W...TO 30W FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 1N...TO 1N40W AND 1N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
20W AND THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF BRAZIL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH
FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC
CENTER...THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N84W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
92W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM TEXAS INTO
EASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
SUPPORT A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT ALSO IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER...ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...TOWARD THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA. A SQUALL LINE RANGES FROM 140 NM TO 180 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N...FROM THE EXUMA CAYS...NORTHWARD BETWEEN 74W AND 78W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BUILDING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER THAT IS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ACTIVE DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 93W IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SOME BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE EAST OF 90W...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
AND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...FROM
BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA...AND SOUTHWARD FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 88W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE TROUGH THAT RUNS
FROM THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N21W TO 19N43W AND
EVENTUALLY TO 14N62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF
80W...AND BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...IN SURFACE TRADEWIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 11 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W.
EXPECT NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW PASSES ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 72W AND 84W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND PUNTA
CANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE
IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE 48 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME AFTER THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND SET OF 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST TIME.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N32W TO 23N39W 19N43W 15N57W...INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 31N20W. A SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N20W TO 28N23W 26N27W AND 24N31W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N10W 25N18W 20N30W 15N40W.

A 1030 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N54W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 70W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT... A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE
EAST OF 52W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 73W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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