Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172106 CCA
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM POLO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 103.7W AT 17/2100 UTC
OR ABOUT ABOUT 160 NM S-SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 145 NM
SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 101W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 100W-110W. POLO IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF
MEXICO BECOMING A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THERE IS AGAIN A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
17/1800 UTC AND TO A REMNANT LOW AT 17/2100 UTC. REMNANT LOW OF
ODILE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.1N 112.7W AT 17/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 17
NM W OF CABORCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 110 NM SW OF TUCSON ARIZONA
MOVING NE AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS
IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W ALONG 7N84W 12N93W TO
14N99W THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S. POLO NEAR 14N105W 12N110W TO
10N123W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N128W TO 13N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 79W-
87W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 95W-98W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
110W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N127W TO 30N129W WHERE
IT DISSIPATES TO 23N140W. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS
MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-10 FT AS IT MIXES WITH BROAD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF
120W IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES N OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE.

AFTER A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY AND
CLYCLOGENEIS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED W-SW FLOW SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THE PAST WEEK OR TWO...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE...SHOWS A MARKED DECREASE IN
ACTIVITY OTHER THAN IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF T.S. POLO.

$$
PAW


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