Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192153
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2054 UTC Sun Feb 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 06N104W. ITCZ resumes from
08N112W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 04N to 08N between 90W and 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered near 25N130W continues building in the
wake of a now dissipated frontal system. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail over the offshore waters along the coast of Baja
California. The high will begin to weaken in response to an
approaching cold front NW of the discussion area. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere. Large NW swells continue arriving in
the coastal and offshore waters of the entire Baja California
peninsula. Seas as high as 17 ft continue to lurk in the waters
west of Baja California Norte. These swell are maintaining
dangerous conditions across these waters. Please see statements
from your local meteorological agency on this high impact swell
event. Winds and seas will continue decreasing through the next
24-48 hours.

High pressure will build SE over eastern Mexico behind a surface
trough moving east across the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday,
helping produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event.
This event will be brief as winds peak near gale force late
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish
below advisory levels on Wednesday evening as high pressure over
Mexico weakens.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh
during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then
diminish by midweek.

Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse to moderate to fresh
during the overnight hours through Monday night.

Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the northern waters near
25N130W. The main threat across the area continues to be the large
NW swell that was generated to the N of the cold front that
recently dissipated over the waters near southern Baja. Sea
heights remain in excess of 12 ft over much of the area north of
18N and west of 110W. The swell will continue to propagate SE
while subsiding during the next few days. Seas greater than 8 ft
will spread as far south as 04N and as far east as 100W by
Tuesday afternoon. Another cold front will push into the far NW
waters this evening. Southwest winds ahead of the approaching
front have already become strong over the far NW waters. Strong
SW winds ahead of the front and N of 28N can be expected to
continue through midday on Monday. Strong to near gale winds
will persist west of the front through Monday afternoon before
tapering off. This front will reintroduce a fresh set of large NW
swell into the forecast waters. Seas will peak near 18 ft over
the far NW waters on Monday morning. Seas will slowly subside as
the swell propagate southeastward. Seas 8 ft or greater will
cover much of the forecast waters north of 05N and west of 115W
by midday Tuesday. Areal coverage of 8 ft seas will decrease
Tuesday night through Friday and leave only a residual area of 8
ft seas over the far NW waters N of 15N and W of 135W.

$$

ERA



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