Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042112
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 2100 UTC SEP 4 MOVING
N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTS 55
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE. KEVIN
HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND HAS STARTED A WEAKENING TREND AS THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH DIMINISHING SST AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SATURDAY
AND FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N98W TO 10N105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN
83W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY FROM 10N TO 28N W OF 136W. SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N145W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 28N118W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF LINE FROM
02N134W TO 10N127W TO 10N102W TO 03.4S92W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDS SURROUNDING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
10N105W WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT

$$
AL


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