Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010221

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.


A surface trough axis extends from 10N84W to 09N96W to 06N110W.
The ITCZ axis extends from 06N110W to 03N123W to 03N130W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
04N to 08N between 84W and 90W. Scattered moderate/isolated
strong convection is within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the
axis between 112W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm north of the axis between 95W and 98W, also
between 100W and 104W and within 60 nm south of the axis between
115W and 119W.



Latest Ascat data and a few ship observations indicate gentle to
moderate winds northerly winds off the coast of Baja California
Norte with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to
8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, 5 to 7 ft off
the remainder of the coast of Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the
Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the
Gulf of California while gentle to moderate winds will prevail
over the remainder of the forecast waters through Thursday. In
the long term, northerly winds will begin to increase over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning late on Thursday night, leading
to the start of the next expected gale force gap wind event
expected to begin early on Friday.


Active convection in the form numerous showers and thunderstorms
will continue over the region generally south of 10N, including
over the coastal and inland sections of much of Central America
and Colombia through early this week. This persistent activity
may lead to localized flooding over some areas of these
locations. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected through
early next week. Long period southwest swell producing seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range will persist over these offshore waters
through early next week.


Nearly stationary high pressure of 1031 mb centered north of the
area near 37N135W extends a ridge southeastward to near 27N127W
to near 21N118W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the ITCZ. A decaying
area of combined seas in the 6 to 8 ft range due to mixed
northwest and southwest remains to the north of 25N between 124W
and 131W. Elsewhere seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Seas will
subside to below 8 ft over the northern portion on Wednesday.
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is inducing combined seas of 6
to 8 ft over the far southern waters south of 02N between 108W
and 120W. This swell will be replaced by another batch of
southwest swell on Monday that will reach north to 09N between
96W and 120W. This area of swell will slowly decay through
Tuesday while shifting eastward.

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