Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310853
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 100W FROM 09N-21N MOVING W 20-25 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N87W ALONG 15N92W 14N100W TO
12N111W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N124W TO
11N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF
9N TO COAST OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-101W AND FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 100W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1011 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...IS CENTERED
NEAR 31N137W DRIFTING W. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.
HOWEVER...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 FT OR GREATER OVER THE FAR NW
PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

A 1025 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE
AXIS THROUGH 32N148W CURVING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
24N140W TO 21N134W.

ELSEWHERE W OF 100W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO MOVE W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SW FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
LEVELS WELL TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE BASIN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$
PAW



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