Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N130W...MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW...WITH A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N129W. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN 124W AND 137W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STEADILY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY
FORM BY TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W/114W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 126W/127W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN EVIDENT
CONSISTENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT
IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. IT IS DRIFTING
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 10N130W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL WAVE MAY LOSE
ITS DISTINCT DEFINITION AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF THE 1006
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N77W TO 07N81W TO 09N86W TO 07N92W
TO 05N110W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N
TO 10N E OF 88W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 99W...AND FROM
09N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 37N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM
24N140W TO 25N130W BEYOND 29N115W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM TO
210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N140W 27N130W
BEYOND 32N117W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 10N115W. A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N111W AND 19N104W
AT THE COAST OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 20N110W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N127W...BEYOND 30N140W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER
PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FEET...AND PROPAGATING AS FAR TO THE
WEST AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF
YESTERDAY...AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THIS MORNING. THIS
TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

THE ITCZ HAS BEEN BROKEN DOWN AS THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE LOW CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT
OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N140W...AND THEN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N148W. THE FAIRLY WEAK 1019
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE RIDGE ARE MAINTAINING
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS DEEPER INTO THE TROPICS...EXCEPT
NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS DUE TO ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 15N129W.

$$
MT



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