Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012218
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 04N98W TO 06N112W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 80W
AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE
FROM 10N127W TO 17N117.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AND PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...CENTERED ALONG
90W...AND IS ACTING TO BLOCK UPSTREAM FLOW ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SPANS THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 140W
N OF 05N...WITH A SHARP DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF S
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA TO 25N. THIS
SYSTEM SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OF THE SW U.S. WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH
30N117W TO 25N123W TO 25N140W. ELEVATED CONVECTION YIELDING
LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATOFORM PRECIP STREAMING ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SURFACE...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT PREVAIL N OF FRONT W OF
127W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. ACROSS THE BASE OF
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH...A SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT
TO THE NE...LOCATED ALONG 120W AND S OF 21N. AN ENERGETIC
ATMOSPHERE S THROUGH E OF THE SHORTWAVE IS BOTH DRAWING MIDDLE
LEVEL MOISTURE N AND NE FROM THE TROPICS THERE...BUT ALSO ACTING
TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE ROUGHLY EXTENDING
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N127W TO 17N117.5W. THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
AND CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE TROPICS TO THE SW
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SE AND REACHES
FROM 29N113W TO 25N115W TO 21N118W MON AFTERNOON...WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE
PACIFIC WELL N OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING S-SE TO
NEAR 25N134W. SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS TO PROMOTE THE
N TO NE WINDS MENTIONED ABOVE...AND FRESH NE TRADEWINDS TO THE S
OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 130W. THE HIGH ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADEWINDS S OF 20N AND W OF
130W THROUGH MON NIGHT....WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUE.

ELSEWHERE AT LOW LEVELS...GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA E OF
120W...WHERE ALL THE TYPICAL GAP AREA ARE SEEING MODERATE TO
FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS AT 10-15 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AREA EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THEN
BECOME MORE SW TO W ON MON AS THE FRONT SINKS ACROSS N
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-25 WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF TO NEAR 14N95.5W WILL PULSE
TO 30 KT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MON
NIGHT...WITH SEAS RESPONDING AND BUILDING FROM 8 FT TO 10 FT BY
EACH MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...AND PULSE TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND MON NIGHTS...AND A
MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT TONIGHT AND MON.

$$
STRIPLING



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