Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Aug 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Warning...Tropical Storm Kenneth is at 15.8N 121.8W,
or about 915 miles W-SW of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula at 1500 utc, moving W-NW, or 285 degrees at
14 kt, with a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous strong
convection is currently observed in bands within 180 nm over the
W semicircle surrounded by scattered moderate isolated strong
convection outwards to 420 nm over the W semicircle. Kenneth is
expected to strengthen to a hurricane on Sun. Refer to National
Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers
WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional
information.

..TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 08N along 81W and has
been progressing W at about 12 kt across the SW Caribbean.
Clusters of TSTMS are likely over Panama and Costa Rica today.

A tropical wave is analyzed to the N of 08N along 101W and is
moving W at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is observed within 150 nm either side of the wave
axis.

A 1008 mb surface low is analyzed along the monsoon trough at
08N112W. Only a few showers are noted within 150 nm of the low
center.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1009 mb surface
low over the far SW Caribbean where a previously mentioned
tropical wave is also analyzed. The monsoon trough extends W
from this surface low along 10N to the Pacific Coast of Costa
Rica at 10N85W to 11N90W, then turns SW to the embedded surface
low at 08N111W where it loses identity, then resumes from
13N127W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted within 150 nm either side of a line from 05N78W to 09N86W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within
120 nm either side of a lines from 09.5N88.5W to 08N106W, and
from 07N118W to 11N125W to 13N132W to 09N140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A NW to SE orientated low level trough will meander E to W
across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California
through the middle of next week with a surface low developing
intermittently along the trough over the far northern Gulf of
California waters. A NW to SE orientated ridge extends across
the far offshore from roughly 23N116W to 13N97W. A moderate NW
breeze is forecast through the middle of next week across the
waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except becoming a
fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the Pacific
Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 5 ft seas forecast
throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will
persist across the Gulf of California through early next week,
except a moderate to locally fresh breeze will surround the low
pressure center that will develop intermittently over the
Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight
and then a brief strong surge is expected late Sun night with
seas building briefly to 8 ft around sunrise on Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through
early next week.

Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N
of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge extends from 32N133W to near 23N116W.
Except as previously mentioned in the above paragraphs, moderate
to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the monsoon
trough and W of 120W.

$$
Nelson



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