Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032135
TWDEP

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 03/2100 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 104.7W.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED INCREASED TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W
AND 107W. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF BLANCA IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...
THEN BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW.
SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL REACH THE SW COAST OF MEXICO
TODAY...SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO
SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO FRI.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND
WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

AT 03/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ANDRES CENTER IS NEAR 19.9N
125.4W AND MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160
NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING
COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR ANDRES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THU
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND TAKING A TURN TO THE E-SE THU. SWELLS
GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER
TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 07N ALONG 89W AND HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING W AROUND 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA LATER IN THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 10N129W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N138W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 27N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS OVER 8 FT
PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL HAVE MERGED WITH
THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES.

LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE
PACIFIC COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD. THIS SWELL IS
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM ANDRES AND BLANCA ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING TO THE SW
ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA IS SUPPORTING A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG
N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD.

$$
FORMOSA


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