Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 221150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula
and adjacent water areas are associated with the remnants of Harvey.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight,
and a tropical depression is expected to form over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread
westward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day
or so.  Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of
low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited.  Any
development of this system during the next few days should be slow
to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns
northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development by the weekend when the system begins to move
northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake


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